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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
I've been playing with the map on 270towin (http://www.270towin.com)
, and it pretty much confirms that Pennsylvania is the pivot point of this election. Trump basically can't win unless he flips it, and Clinton is unlikely to win without it (she could, if she takes either Florida or North Carolina, but winning one of those states and losing Pennsylvania would be very unusual).
This analysis is taking into account that New Mexico and Nevada are basically blue states rather than swing states at this point; that Colorado and Virginia are becoming increasingly blue; and that Clinton's polls in Virginia and Colorado are consistently strong, whereas her polls in Pennsylvania are more mixed.
It's far too early yet for predictions, but that looks like the general political layout.
...are there any really popular Pennsylvania democrats that Clinton could pick for VP?
edited 16th Jul '16 4:37:49 PM by Galadriel
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Dunno about complete joke (depends on how savvy Pence is in power politics). Guarenteed that his veep ain't gonna be loyal to him though. Could lead to administration shenanigans.
Makes me wonder what Gingrich and Christie are getting instead though. I still think Christie is gonna be his AG pick with Gingrich getting Chief of Staff.
edited 16th Jul '16 4:38:47 PM by FFShinra
Uhm.. I think you are all way to pessimistic about the prospects of an anti-citizens united amendment. *Everyone* in congress is essentially a telemarketer due to constant fundraising.
Have you ever worked as a telemarketer? It's hell. So if you think it has no chance of passing, what you are saying is that you think there is no way to persuade congress to vote to make their own lives stop being hell.
That seems.. a bit of an excess of cynicism. Don't think it'd be impossible to get the states to ratify it either.
Positive or negative, likely or not, proposing an amendment is the easy part. It's got to get through Congress by a 2/3rds majority and 3/4ths of the states have to vote in favor. It's a high bar to cross (by design). (Alternately, 2/3rds of the states can get an amendment proposal rolling and then I think it goes to the ratification votes.)
edited 16th Jul '16 6:03:36 PM by Elle
So in other "Batshit insane" news, West Virginia State Congressman Michael Folk called for Hillary Clinton to be "tried for treason, murder, and crimes against the US Constitution… then hung on the Mall in Washington, DC"
... via Twitter.
Seriously, I'm starting to loathe that system for making quick little soundbites easy for politicians to snap off.
Not quite, as he at least called for her to be tried first.
edited 16th Jul '16 6:59:56 PM by ironballs16
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"Pennsylvania hasn't voted for a Republican since 1988, i think. If PA goes red you're looking at a situation where things are already screwed and Democrats are trying to staunch the bleeding. Being a heart rust-belt state has made PA the GOP's White Whale for many a year, thinking that they can tap the white resentment that is indeed very much alive outside of Pittsburgh and Philly, but those two cities, along with the discipline of the unions in outlying areas, keep the state blue.
PA's also the only state that flipped the governor's mansion from R to D in 2014, and we also flipped our state supreme court in 2015 (another bad year for Dems nationwide). As far as current voting trends go, we're bluer than Massachusetts (which flipped governor D to R in '14).
Yeah, people always say Pennsylvania is a swing state despite having been blue since Clinton ways around. The GOP always tries to appeal to it in the last few weeks of the campaign, but by that point they've already ticked off what is generally a moderate state.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
God, I don't even want to think about 2020. It's already a crazy-ass year, can you imagine what 2020's going to be like? And what happens if Hilary gets elected in 2016? Are we going to get someone even crazier than Trump as the Republican candidate in 2020? (I bet there's someone out there...) And I really don't want to think about how things would have turned out by then with a President Trump. I just hope that after the 2016 election, we can just put all of this behind us and have at least one good year of relative peace and sanity before the madness starts right back up again. Is that too much to ask?
edited 16th Jul '16 9:23:59 PM by kkhohoho
There's a silver lining: If Trump gets elected in 2020, he just might get shot.
Yeah, don't even joke about that.
Shooting people is for the other guys to do.
Whenever I play Democracy, trying to push through a secularization and gun regulation too quickly tends to get me murdered fast.
On the other hand, the game should include a mechanic whereby failed assassinations make crackdowns easier and/or increase one's popularity.
edited 17th Jul '16 5:00:16 AM by TheHandle
Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.Apparently the Trump/Pence logo lasted all of one day before getting taken down
.
That GIF Samantha Bee's team put together is probably funnier than it should be.
EDIT: Some truly unfortunate signage at the RNC venue
. That is, if you subscribe to Hanlon's Razor in this instance.
edited 17th Jul '16 5:45:36 AM by Krieger22
I have disagreed with her a lot, but comparing her to republicans and propagandists of dictatorships is really low. - An idiot

The problem (for the Republicans) is that he swayed in a way that's utterly humiliating for Pence. And Christie. And Gingrich. All of them thought they were the candidate and two of them found out they were rejected by the tweet announcing the selection of Pence, and the third one found out that Trump didn't even want him as the VP and tried to back out at the last minute.
Trump just guaranteed that his VP candidate is a complete joke, no matter who they were.