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CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#129851: Jul 12th 2016 at 3:15:54 PM

@Lennik: Actually we did have a third party candidate win once, namely Abraham Lincoln in the clusterfuck that was the Presidential election of 1860. He's not called that because his party (the GOP) went on to become one of the majors. Now that said, something like that is very unlikely to happen in this election unless the GOP dumps Trump and half of the party goes rogue alongside him, at which point third parties are completely safe, and could conceivably win.

edited 12th Jul '16 3:18:51 PM by CaptainCapsase

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#129852: Jul 12th 2016 at 3:16:45 PM

@Kostya, sounds right to me.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Lennik (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#129853: Jul 12th 2016 at 3:22:15 PM

[up][up] By your own admission that won't happen this time by a long shot, so that point is moot.

That's right, boys. Mondo cool.
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#129854: Jul 12th 2016 at 3:27:45 PM

[up] It probably won't, but it never hurts to look towards future cycles, and if either party achieved their goal of meeting the federal funding threshold, they'd be in a very good position to pull that off if eight years down the line the GOP implodes after attempting to impeach Clinton for the 15th time and the Berneicrats who seem poised to end up in congress are ready for political revolution 2: Electric Boogaloo.

Which creates a sort of mutually assured spoilage scenario in this particular political climate where one of the parties looks to be in danger of collapsing; if one of the minor parties is poised to get the coveted federal funding, the other rather desperately needs it as well.

edited 12th Jul '16 3:33:36 PM by CaptainCapsase

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#129855: Jul 12th 2016 at 3:27:50 PM

Given that Clinton did choose to vote to start a war, I'd say the chances of her doing so again are fairly high. 40-60% range. Trump's a little higher, the other Republican presidential candidates would be a lot higher.

The difference is that Hillary would have some kind of policy rationale, even if it was a bad one. Wheras I can see Trump bombing a country just because their leader insulted him, or some other crazy stupid thing; he's a guy with a massive ego and virtually no experience of his actions having consequences.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#129856: Jul 12th 2016 at 3:28:44 PM

[up] Odds are she'd merely continue carrying out the undeclared war the Obama administration is currently fighting in Syria via drones, special forces, and local proxies. The political will for a proper war effort simply doesn't exist at this time, and probably won't for the foreseeable future.

edited 12th Jul '16 3:37:10 PM by CaptainCapsase

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#129857: Jul 12th 2016 at 3:34:14 PM

[up][up]...That's terrible reasoning. Voting (along with most other people) for one war does not somehow mean she's going to jump at the chance to start another one. I feel that should be obvious. Context and circumstances matter when talking about these things. And your arbitrary percentages didn't help your point, either.

edited 12th Jul '16 3:34:52 PM by LSBK

AmbarSonofDeshar Since: Jan, 2010
#129858: Jul 12th 2016 at 3:35:50 PM

Given that Clinton did choose to vote to start a war, I'd say the chances of her doing so again are fairly high. 40-60% range.

Remember, 90% of statistics used in online debates are entirely made up.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#129859: Jul 12th 2016 at 3:40:36 PM

By cherry picking for example. Hillary did walk back the support for the war when it turned out the reasons were forged evidence.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
GameGuruGG Vampire Hunter from Castlevania (Before Recorded History)
Vampire Hunter
#129860: Jul 12th 2016 at 4:09:33 PM

People think that the Republicans are nearing collapse, but they are not. A collapse of a major party means a collapse of said party all the way down, not just at the presidential level. Currently, the Republicans hold a majority of the House and Senate as well as the majority of governorships and state legislatures. Until Democrats can actually get out to vote in mid-term elections like Republicans do that won't change at all.

edited 12th Jul '16 4:10:22 PM by GameGuruGG

Wizard Needs Food Badly
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#129861: Jul 12th 2016 at 4:12:11 PM

[up][up]Indeed. Had the evidence against Saddam been factual, as had been assumed at the time of her vote, voting against it would have been gross negligence. That it wasn't true wasn't her fault, it was the White House's. Holding it against her isn't for reasons of the actual vote, but some misguided notion that she betrayed some sort of naive pacifist dogma that she never even claimed to buy in to.

edited 12th Jul '16 4:12:47 PM by FFShinra

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
TheHandle United Earth from Stockholm Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
United Earth
#129863: Jul 12th 2016 at 4:15:33 PM

The evidence against Saddam was bullshit and everyone knew it.

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#129866: Jul 12th 2016 at 4:50:00 PM

I agree, the evidence was crap. Hillary either supported the Iraq war despite knowing it was crap, or she has colossally poor judgement.

Yes, my percentages were meaningless, I'll cop to that. But voting for the biggest US foreign policy disaster since the Vietnam War is no small thing, and it does make me distrust her on foreign policy.

edited 12th Jul '16 4:50:51 PM by Galadriel

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#129867: Jul 12th 2016 at 4:52:03 PM

Do you all have any proof the evidence was fake and easily noticeable as such, or are just you guessing with the amazing power of hindsight?

TheHandle United Earth from Stockholm Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
United Earth
#129868: Jul 12th 2016 at 4:55:05 PM

No, we're remembering. We're remembering the fear, and the campaigns, and the successively tightening UN directives, and the UN inspections, and their conclusions, and the UN as a whole being against that. We're remembering the "Axis of Evil", and that terror, "Who's next?"

edited 12th Jul '16 4:55:19 PM by TheHandle

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#129869: Jul 12th 2016 at 5:00:18 PM

The Donald's thin skin strikes again, as he wants Ruth Bader Ginsburg to apologize and/or resign following some very clear anti Trump sentiment.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/07/12/trump-ginsburg-supreme-court/86994616/

Amusingly, when writing Ginsburg's name, my phone's auto correct tried to change the middle name to Vader

edited 12th Jul '16 5:01:42 PM by sgamer82

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#129870: Jul 12th 2016 at 5:02:30 PM

[up][up] And you expect Hillary Clinton to actively conduct such a disinformation campaign? Really?

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#129871: Jul 12th 2016 at 5:10:15 PM

Looking at the general reaction it seems like a lot of the Bernie or Bust crowd legitimately never considered the possibility that he'd endorse Clinton. It's kind of mind blowing to me that they could be that naive.

TheHandle United Earth from Stockholm Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
United Earth
#129872: Jul 12th 2016 at 5:12:44 PM

I expect her to hype up the Designated Enemy's sins and demonize them, even though there will be worse tyrants and monsters around, some of whom will be supported by the US. I expect her to strike said Enemy, with wide acceptance if possible, but without if necessary. The US MIC thirst for blood, they need their fox hunts, and she will give them those.

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#129873: Jul 12th 2016 at 5:13:39 PM

[up][up] Most people here seemed to believe that about Sanders until fairly recently.

Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#129874: Jul 12th 2016 at 5:16:17 PM

We were kind of preparing for the worst but a lot of us were cautiously optimistic he'd come around. With this people it seems like the idea never even occurred to them as a serious possibility.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#129875: Jul 12th 2016 at 5:21:25 PM

@Ambar: Sanders using a crowdfunding-esque fundraising scheme for his campaign in a manner that was capable of competing with the Clinton model of fundraising in a primary is almost certainly going to be a major takeaway from his campaign; that's not something that's ever been done before, and if he has no other impact, demonstrating a different path for campaign fundraising (one that doesn't require nearly as many ties to big business) is still something huge, and if other politicians cannot replicate that feat, it begs a rather important question as to why that's the case.

Indeed, Doctor Hopkins agreed that there very well might be something to that which would make Sanders campaign historic.

edited 12th Jul '16 5:25:29 PM by CaptainCapsase


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