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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
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Basically, even if the EU has a lot of flaws, one of its main goals in its creation was to prevent war against its members. And on that front, it worked.
But with Brexit, nationalistic movements all across Europe will get cocky and might gain more and more support. If the EU completely crumbles and turns into a quagmire of ultra-nationationalistic states, it's highly likely that it will sooner or later give fertile ground for war to erupt once again on european soil.
Edit :
'd
edited 24th Jun '16 5:48:56 AM by purplefishman
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Yep. The British and French nuclear arsenals make them and their neighbors more or less untouchable by state actors, but the minor EU states could be in serious trouble. That means intervention by NATO, which means more military buildup in Europe, which means skyrocketing tensions with Russia, particularly since the least stable EU states are those in Eastern Europe.
edited 24th Jun '16 6:02:07 AM by CaptainCapsase
Might I point out that "the British" arsenal is a little in question should the Union crumble?
Guys: quit the panic. I'm unhappy today, but even I realise this is going to take a while to sort out. Just how hellish or not the hand-basket is about to get is still largely unknowable.
Visions of nuclear war, the destabilisation of the UN and apocalypse are a bit far fetched. However, there will be many, many changes.
Which could include the reduction of fascist thought, should everything go tits up in the rhubarb for Leave. Nothing derails a train of thought quite like failing dismally.
edited 24th Jun '16 6:05:15 AM by Euodiachloris
Aside from the states on the eastern fringe, nobody's going to want to fight a war with each other. The basic precepts of the European project (free trade and possibly free movement) would survive even if everything else went out the window.
Times have changed from 100 years ago. Shifting cultural norms and higher living standards mean few have the stomach for war, and certainly not a majority of people in any democracy, except for minor wars.
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We're closer to midnight on the doomsday clock than we've been since the end of the Cold War; destabilization of the EU and initiatives by the nuclear powers to modernize their arsenals are two of the big reasons for that.
And instability on the eastern fringe of the EU means rising tensions with Russia.
edited 24th Jun '16 6:09:04 AM by CaptainCapsase
I thought the doomsday clock was mostly thinking in bigger picture terms, about problems with international terror and climate change and not seriously entertaining the possibility of nuclear holocaust. The possibility of a limited exchange exists because of North Korea, India, and Pakistan, but The End ain't coming because of us or the Russians, not anymore.
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The people of Hungary would like a word with you, and that's just the tip of the iceberg. The Leave vote in the UK could embolden other nationalistic, far-right parties around Europe, who've already seen their membership increase since austerity measures by neo-liberal governments took a recession and made it worse.
As much as I'd like to be optimistic here, history backs up the idea that the failure of a large international alliance invariably leads to warfare.
edited 24th Jun '16 6:10:25 AM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"![]()
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I wouldn't be that optimistic. Europe in general is facing a rise of extreme right wing movements that don't give two flying fucks about that whole "freedom of speech and of movement" thing, and just want every single country to be completely isolated from the others.
And it's very, VERY easy to manipulate people into wanting to murder their neighbor. Scratch the surface a bit, and everyone's a monster.
edited 24th Jun '16 6:11:33 AM by purplefishman
Ignore the doomsday clock. It's a waste of good worry.
Seriously. The thing that could kill us all is well known. It's called "Time". And, it's already here. It was here even before we showed up.
At the danger of sounding dead prosaic: the worst case scenarios are usually not the things that cause sheer hell. It's the small stuff that nobody saw coming because nobody knew about it until it did.
This is not one of those things. Still flipping stupid. And, messy. And, painful for those caught up in it. But, people being people have been people for a million years, give or take. Even decimation generally can be survived, given luck. We're pretty good at that.
If I may ask for a bit of education: How long has the Brexit thing been stewing? I get the impression is been building up for some time but the first I remember hearing of it myself is after the EU passed their LBGT anti-discrimination measure this/last month.
edited 24th Jun '16 6:18:02 AM by sgamer82

The problem for us is that a weak pound increases the relative value of the dollar, worsening our international trade position, in a process known as "exporting weakness". This is excluding the problem of general panics in financial markets, which will eventually settle out. Britain cutting ties with the EU will, according to estimates, cost it 2% of GDP permanently, and the new government has promised to double down on austerity measures, making things even worse. Most of that loss will, in turn, be "exported" to the rest of the world via reduced trade.
Britain is not just harming itself with a Leave decision; it's dragging down everyone else as well. It's also doing severe damage to European solidarity, which was already weakened by the fanatically stupid economic behavior of the EU leadership in the wake of the 2008 recession and consequent debt-deflation crises. If the EU falls apart, expect the next continental war within 20 years.
edited 24th Jun '16 5:01:33 AM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"