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NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#124876: Jun 6th 2016 at 3:58:18 PM

I can't remember if it was linked in this thread or not, but Why Trump Was Inevitable covers the topic pretty well. tldr, as far back as early February (when there were still ten other candidates in the running!), polling data showed that Trump beat all of them in a head-to-head race. In other words, Trump won because voters like Trump more than everyone else in the Republican primary, not just because he managed to play a divided field against itself.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
GameGuruGG Vampire Hunter from Castlevania (Before Recorded History)
Vampire Hunter
#124877: Jun 6th 2016 at 4:02:43 PM

Also, I expect Trump to do worryingly well in the general election compared to what many here might like. Like how many Democrats are bitterly accepting Clinton as the nominee because the alternative is Trump, many Republicans are bitterly accepting Trump as the nominee because the alternative is Clinton.

edited 6th Jun '16 4:04:10 PM by GameGuruGG

Wizard Needs Food Badly
pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#124878: Jun 6th 2016 at 4:05:53 PM

Back during Bill Clinton's administration, I thought that the Clintons were utterly shameless self-serving hucksters. By comparison, Trump makes them (both!) look like paragons of virtue.

Plus, Hillary at least has some inkling of how to run a government. Trump doesn't have a clue.

edited 6th Jun '16 4:10:25 PM by pwiegle

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darksidevoid Anti-Gnosis Weapon from The Frontiers (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Robosexual
Anti-Gnosis Weapon
#124879: Jun 6th 2016 at 4:12:33 PM

It also goes the other way. Even in a "safe" district, if you can make it a near run thing you force the other party to spend money in that district, wasting resources they could spend elsewhere. That, by the way, is an argument for giving your vote to the Democrats and not someone like the Green Party. Even if they don't get as many votes as usual, the Republicans aren't going to panic over a "safe" district where the opposing vote was split between two parties. They will conversely, panic if the Democrats run them close, and then they'll start spending money to keep a district they would otherwise win.

There are different degrees of "safe". There's nominally safe, and there's actually safe. When you've gerrymandered so completely that the majority of all voters in a district lean strongly toward one party, the money generally doesn't matter anymore, because the party it leans toward needn't dedicate anything more than an absolute pittance of their funds to it when their built-in advantage is so overwhelmingly large. The same goes for the home districts of national candidates. The underdog party would have to invest a disproportionately huge amount of resources that would better be spent elsewhere in that situation if they want to even try to "run them close". Sadly, all of my own state legislature's districts, and most of my state's federal districts, are of the latter type.

There's also the fact that state-level races take far fewer resources than national-level races in most situations, so it really is all about context. Also, Republican donors have deeper pockets than Democratic donors, so the Repubs need not worry as much about throwing money around.

edited 6th Jun '16 4:13:17 PM by darksidevoid

GM: AGOG S4 & F/WC RP; Co-GM: TABA, SOTR, UUA RP; Sub-GM: TTS RP. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire.
Falrinn Since: Dec, 2014
#124880: Jun 6th 2016 at 4:40:57 PM

[up][up] As Hillary is someone who operates within the system, even if you believe the worst of her, it simply doesn't benefit her for the country (and the system) to go down in flames.

Trump on the other hand may very well be perfectly content to watch the country burn as long as he gets to take his money (and anything in the US treasury he can grab) and screw off to some questionably democratic country on the other side of the planet where he can live out his days in luxury.

AmbarSonofDeshar Since: Jan, 2010
#124881: Jun 6th 2016 at 5:00:51 PM

[up][up]That the Republicans have more money to throw around is more of an argument to try and make them waste it, not less of one.

PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#124882: Jun 6th 2016 at 5:04:44 PM

Trump Ally Roger Stone: "Sources" Tell Me Chris Christie Knew About Bridgegate

Keep an eye on Roger Stone. He and Trump are basically best friends, and he is essentially Trump's unofficial character assassin for Trump's political enemies. Also, if anyone tries to turn against Trump, Trump is going to try and drag them down with him.

pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#124883: Jun 6th 2016 at 5:06:01 PM

[up][up][up]In that hypothetical, I think he'd be living out his days in paranoia, looking over his shoulder for the hit squad that you can bet somebody would send after him...

edited 6th Jun '16 5:06:23 PM by pwiegle

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Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#124884: Jun 6th 2016 at 5:06:49 PM

[up][up] Why the hell would he be assassinating someone allied with Trump, then?

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#124885: Jun 6th 2016 at 5:18:20 PM

[up] Presumably because Christie's getting uppity.

PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#124886: Jun 6th 2016 at 5:18:30 PM

It's warning to Christie that if he tries to bail on Trump because of the "Mexican Judge" thing, Christie is going to hang from the metaphorical gallows for stepping out of line.

flameboy21th The would-be novelist from California Since: Jan, 2013 Relationship Status: I <3 love!
The would-be novelist
#124887: Jun 6th 2016 at 5:27:08 PM

We should've rescued Christie when we had the chance.

Non Indicative Username
Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#124888: Jun 6th 2016 at 5:33:24 PM

Why? Christie sucks. He's a right-wing asshole only hamstrung in the damage he can do by virtue of having to deal with a Democratic state government. And even setting aside his nasty philosophy for government where trauma centers get less funding so millionaires and megacorps don't have to pay as much in taxes, the man is an asshole.

Even if Bridgegate isn't laid at his door, I can scarcely name a more venal, nasty, petty SOB than Chris Christie. Let's also admit something quick: If Trump had not thrown the dogwhistle off a cliff and come out to just go "fuck Mexicans and Muslims" he wouldn't have done as well. Flat out.

He is where the party has been moving for a while in its catering to a hatred of education, racism and ignorance. Something like this was always going to happen after they threw open the doors to the crazies.

edited 6th Jun '16 5:35:59 PM by Lightysnake

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#124889: Jun 6th 2016 at 5:48:04 PM

Well, we can feel hypothetical sympathy for a bully getting bossed around by a bigger bully.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#124890: Jun 6th 2016 at 6:06:24 PM

And keep in mind this is probably what Stone and Trump plan to do to the rest of the GOP:

"You step out of line or try to bail? We're going to lay all your skeletons out to air."

The party's stuck with a lunatic who they can't predict, that they're all terrified of, and who basically has a suicide vest armed with a Deadman's Trigger.

On a less Trump Related Note, I think NY Mag gives a decent look at Hillary and her polling problems:

Hillary Clinton vs Herself.

Basically as an older article pointed out, Hillary's got problems with the press/charisma similar to Nixon. Hillary basically LOATHES talking to the press due to 25+ years of abuse giving her political PTSD, and as a result has created a complete sphere of un-personalization since she doesn't want more abuse from the press corps than she needs to put up with.

Or to put it most simply, she admits she's a bureaucrat first, who hates putting up with the Beltway Horse Race and Pony Show.

edited 6th Jun '16 6:50:25 PM by PotatoesRock

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#124891: Jun 6th 2016 at 6:49:34 PM

A few news outlets have declared Clinton the presumptive nominee after the PR race, she now has enough (projected) pledged and super delegates to win the convention.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#124892: Jun 6th 2016 at 7:07:52 PM

[up][up] Any politician in a position of appreciable power faces regular character assassination attempts. While Trump's thus far done everything in his power to make the election untenable for the GOP, I'm still not convinced she's especially good at dealing with scandals; every time it happens, it becomes a huge issue and sticks in the public consciousness for months. Contrast with Obama, where barely anyone remembers the lame attempts made at swiftboating him, despite Clinton claiming in 2008 that she was the safe choice.

Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#124893: Jun 6th 2016 at 7:09:47 PM

Nobody...remembers the attempts at Obama scandals?

Umm..what?

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#124894: Jun 6th 2016 at 7:17:40 PM

[up] Nobody takes them seriously other than the far right. One of them also originated from Clinton's supporters (though not her campaign), so I wouldn't count that.

edited 6th Jun '16 7:19:37 PM by CaptainCapsase

Hodor2 Since: Jan, 2015
#124895: Jun 6th 2016 at 7:29:37 PM

I have to ask- why is Birtherism for you only a stick with which to beat Clinton (bad metaphor, I know) and not a knock on Trump who basically made himself the leading proponent of that conspiracy theory?

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#124896: Jun 6th 2016 at 7:32:06 PM

[up] It isn't; Trump was indeed one of the people who jumped on that early on, and he just wouldn't let it die.

AmbarSonofDeshar Since: Jan, 2010
#124897: Jun 6th 2016 at 7:34:35 PM

Obama's had eight years of attacks. Clinton's had twenty-five. There's a difference.

TacticalFox88 from USA Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Dating the Doctor
#124898: Jun 6th 2016 at 7:35:22 PM

The AP just called it for Clinton.

GG, Sen. Sanders.

Now, GTFO, go back to Vermont, and stay the fuck out of the way of Obama, Joe, Michelle, and Bill.

New Survey coming this weekend!
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#124899: Jun 6th 2016 at 7:37:34 PM

[up] People like you make me reflexively want to vote Trump out of spite, but I won't because that's not a rational course of action. You may despise Sanders and everything he stands for, but gloating and belittling is not how you go about getting people to go vote, and like it or not, Clinton won't win if his supporters stay home en masse.

edited 6th Jun '16 7:42:37 PM by CaptainCapsase

Hodor2 Since: Jan, 2015
#124900: Jun 6th 2016 at 7:38:22 PM

@Captain- Fair enough. I also apologize- it is true that Birtherism did originate from some of Clinton's loonier supporters and I misread your post to be indicating a closer to connection to her than that reality. But still, only referring to it in connection with Clinton is kind of unfair since even though it may have first been broached by some of her supporters, it has been enthusiastically supported and dog-whistled by tons of conservatives- in fact IIRC like about 40% of Republicans believe it.

edited 6th Jun '16 7:39:06 PM by Hodor2


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