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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#124551: Jun 4th 2016 at 8:57:48 AM

Yeah Putin likes him because Trump is probably the one thing that might push Europe to switch sides.

Democracies have picked Russia as an ally against Fascist before, Putin is probably thinking we might do it again.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
AmbarSonofDeshar Since: Jan, 2010
#124552: Jun 4th 2016 at 9:22:01 AM

For those of you concerned about polling, one poll apparently decided to incorporate a scenario where Sanders has dropped out of the race. Clinton's numbers jump under those circumstances.

RavenWilder Since: Apr, 2009
#124553: Jun 4th 2016 at 9:52:41 AM

There's also the fact that the Electoral College map heavily favors Democratic candidates at the moment: assuming the Republicans' and Democrats' respective safe states don't flip, Clinton could lose in every swing state except for Florida and still have enough electoral votes to win the Presidency.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#124554: Jun 4th 2016 at 10:05:58 AM

Um, Florida of all swing states tends to be slightly more GOP favourable. Plus, if Trump can make good on his promise to contest Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio it would make him much more competitive. To my understanding, holding on to these states plus Virginia is what forms the "blue firewall".

(His claim to contest the west coast states Washington, Oregon and California on the other hand sounds utterly implausible.)

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#124555: Jun 4th 2016 at 10:35:49 AM

Michigan is solid blue and not even a swing state, while Pennsylvania is the GOP white whale, it's gone to the Dems even under Bush.

Ohio could maybe be contested, but I doubt it.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#124556: Jun 4th 2016 at 10:38:16 AM

Swing states do not stay the same between elections. Unconventional candidates, demographic and ideological shifts can change a state from swing to safe and vice versa.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#124557: Jun 4th 2016 at 11:15:46 AM

538 has already noted that Pennsylvania is more likely to be in play with Trump in the race due to demographics (specifically the Pittsburgh metro because of its electorate).

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#124558: Jun 4th 2016 at 11:18:00 AM

How do Trump and the Pittsburgh metro area line up?

edited 4th Jun '16 11:18:16 AM by LSBK

NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#124559: Jun 4th 2016 at 11:20:42 AM

Florida's gone blue three out of the last five presidential elections (and one of the ones where they're counted as red is the 2000 election, where the actual result was ultimately blue, but the official result was red, because lawsuits and various other shenanigans). It's definitely a swing state, since their results tend to be quite close, but I'm not sure where the idea where it's red-leaning comes from.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#124560: Jun 4th 2016 at 11:35:48 AM

LSBK: From a few weeks ago; it is discussing the likely tipping state for 2016, which he argues is more likely to be PA rather than Colorado or Virginia because the latter two are trending Democrat overall. Perhaps I should have been more broad and said Western Pennsylvania - the metro area as defined by the Census is still liable to be Democrat.

The author points out the local economy (Western Pennsylvania has had a fracking boom and presumably a bust as well - an economy that looks bad locally tends to hurt the White House incumbent party), demographics (PA is fairly old and white compared to the other two), and voting laws.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#124561: Jun 4th 2016 at 11:37:47 AM

PA hasn't picked a Republican since the 80s. I don't see any reason why that would change now.

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#124562: Jun 4th 2016 at 11:43:47 AM

It's more like "If PA goes Republican Trump is actually in position to win the whole election" rather than any prognosis on his actual chances of winning the state.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#124563: Jun 4th 2016 at 12:04:51 PM

~Native Jovian: I was thinking of percentages - Florida was won by Obama in 2012 and 2008 more narrowly than the nation and went for Bush in 2004 with wider margins than the nation.

Also, if memory serves Pennsylvania is slightly trending redder in presidential elections, per this article. Such percentage shifts are glacially slow, though.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#124565: Jun 4th 2016 at 12:32:54 PM

I'm not sure Sanders does at this point, either.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#124566: Jun 4th 2016 at 12:33:48 PM

That's a bit old. Thanks to tomorrow's primary in Puerto Rico and next Tuesday's primary in New Jersey, Clinton will almost certainly receive enough support to be nominated.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#124567: Jun 4th 2016 at 12:36:22 PM

He keeps saying it but it's not going to happen, he'd need to win in ways that he isn't going to. That's become more and more obvious as time goes on, including in the month since that articular war written.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
ILoveDogs Since: May, 2010
#124568: Jun 4th 2016 at 12:38:22 PM

Whoops! I thought it was more recent; my apologies.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#124569: Jun 4th 2016 at 12:51:18 PM

He's going to concede after the last vote is cast, in all likelihood. That's what he did during pretty much every election he ran in before getting into office.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#124570: Jun 4th 2016 at 1:52:42 PM

Hold the phone guys, Sanders apparently is going for a contested convention, by aiming for Clinton's superdelgates.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/04/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-convention/index.html

Fucking hypocritical slimebag.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
ILoveDogs Since: May, 2010
#124571: Jun 4th 2016 at 1:54:57 PM

It's not going to work-he's spent the entire election hectoring them.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#124572: Jun 4th 2016 at 2:01:37 PM

I know it won't work, but the delusional fanatics that make up a portion of his support base don't.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
ILoveDogs Since: May, 2010
#124573: Jun 4th 2016 at 2:03:36 PM

Do you think he'll do something stupid like refuse to endorse Clinton?

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#124574: Jun 4th 2016 at 2:04:57 PM

It wouldn't really be that bad if he (or supporters) didn't make such a fuss about how the superdelegates were cheating him out of the nomination.

Though, maybe that was less him and his campaign and more obnoxious internet fans. Did his campaign ever make an actual statement on the superdelegates besides this?

edited 4th Jun '16 2:11:14 PM by LSBK

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#124575: Jun 4th 2016 at 2:06:14 PM

Not enough evidence to prognosticate. Also, no strapping in, this appealing to superdelegates has been going on for some time now.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman

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