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NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#120751: May 2nd 2016 at 6:10:19 PM

I think your all underestimating Trump.
The thing about Trump is that he's incredibly polarizing. The people who like him really love him, and the people who dislike him really hate him. The right is divided over him, while the left uniformly hates him. The people who lean right but don't like him are likely to stay home and simply not vote rather than vote for Hillary (who they also hate), but the left is going to rally behind keeping Trump out of office even if they're not super enthused about Clinton.

edited 2nd May '16 6:10:43 PM by NativeJovian

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#120752: May 2nd 2016 at 6:32:36 PM

[up]I'm hoping that happens. A fair number of Bernie supporters I know refuse to vote for Clinton.

NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#120753: May 2nd 2016 at 6:40:49 PM

While there's inevitably going to be some of that, those people probably weren't going to vote for Hillary anyway — and there's a hell of a lot fewer of them than there are Jeb/Rubio/Kaisch/Cruz/etc supporters that are going to stay home rather than vote for Trump. Especially if Sanders swallows his pride and goes on the campaign trail for Hillary after she gets the nomination.

edited 2nd May '16 6:42:17 PM by NativeJovian

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#120754: May 2nd 2016 at 6:51:11 PM

Trump's general approval rating is among the lowest of any candidate. He's going to find himself, in the general, having to search for votes among moderates and informed voters who will take one look at his rhetoric and his positions and freak out.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#120755: May 2nd 2016 at 7:11:07 PM

Alas, there will also be those, the same kind of people who screw up naming polls, who will come out to vote just to see the world burn and vote for him.

Demonic_Braeburn Yankee Doodle Dandy from Defective California Since: Jan, 2016
Yankee Doodle Dandy
#120756: May 2nd 2016 at 7:14:05 PM

Poor handling of Bengzhai as Secretary of State

Dead horse, even among the the Republicans at this point.

Hillary, weak on rape, because her husband might of raped women

Trump won't go there because the Clintons will bring up the rape accusations against him.

"So what did she say behind closed doors to Goldman Sachs???"

I'll be interested if the GOP even brings this up. Its not like Republicans aren't doing it.

"Clinton Foundation: Money Laundering Machine??? Or Pay-To-Play Scam Charity? YOU DECIDE!" "Hillary Clinton thinks she's above the law so much she can have a private E-Mail server for government communication she wasn't authorized by the NSA to have"

These could be problems. At the very least Trump is gonna mention the FBI investigation a lot more than Sanders is.

Former Republican presidential hopeful Jim Gilmore failed this weekend to get elected as a delegate to the GOP national convention.

edited 2nd May '16 7:15:10 PM by Demonic_Braeburn

Any group who acts like morons ironically will eventually find itself swamped by morons who think themselves to be in good company.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#120757: May 2nd 2016 at 7:31:45 PM

Trump's approval rating among women and Latinos will cripple him in the general; baring a total collapse in Democratic voter turnout or a major misstep by the Clinton campaign. Or a major economic downturn/terrorist attack on American soil.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#120758: May 2nd 2016 at 7:34:31 PM

What we need to fend off is the risk of Congressional Republicans engineering a major economic crisis between now and November.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#120759: May 2nd 2016 at 9:37:18 PM

Paul Ryan seems to actually not want to scuttle the government (rhetoric aside), though I can see that happening if he gets Boehner'd.

PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#120760: May 2nd 2016 at 9:41:32 PM

And or Government Shutdown.

Trump won't go there because the Clintons will bring up the rape accusations against him.
Not directly, but Roger Stone, a notorious Trump ally and crony, can and will switfboat her on the issue, from the sounds of it.

And it's speculated Stone distanced himself from Trump specifically so he can start ripping into Hillary on anything and everything he can get his hands on, without worsening Trump himself or associating the attacks as being from The Donald.

Even if Trump has no chance of victory, there's no reason for him and his surrogates and allies and campaign team to play nice. If anything, if he's going down, I expect him to go down doing abnormal tactics to try and force a Pyrrhic Victory. If he can't win, why the hell should he let her go into office cleanly. Any form of normal political sportsmanship is off the table with Trump.

Paul Ryan seems to actually not want to scuttle the government (rhetoric aside), though I can see that happening if he gets Boehner'd.
He's gonna get Boehner'd. Trump loses, the Freedom Caucus is going probably go apeshit on him.

Hell, Trump loses, party is probably going to have Trump as the new Barry Goldwater (candidate who lost but ultimately massively reshaped the party. In Trump's case, making the Repubs a bunch of diehard ultra patriot nationalists willing to scuttle on Social Issues)

Ryan's a party of a dying breed of Republican, and I can't see him lasting, his career is probably going to be entirely shipwrecked. Nothing this election will change the calculus of the House too much that it won't result in him being left with a Significant Minority-Plurality of Ultra Hard Cores (The Freedom Caucus) who won't vote on sane legislation to bid time and try to soften the party image, leaving him with the remaining Repubs unable to pass laws due to the Hastert Rule.

Breaking the Hastert Rule lets you get primary'd.

Ryan's going to probably end up just as paralyzed and damaged as Boehner. Just we got a Boehner with less spray tan and more beard and apparently chronic heart/medical conditions.

edited 2nd May '16 9:48:23 PM by PotatoesRock

GameGuruGG Vampire Hunter from Castlevania (Before Recorded History)
Vampire Hunter
#120761: May 2nd 2016 at 10:14:57 PM

[up]This is what I am worried about. Just getting the nomination will allow Trump to reshape the Republican Party into reflecting his views.

Wizard Needs Food Badly
TacticalFox88 from USA Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Dating the Doctor
#120762: May 2nd 2016 at 10:23:48 PM

And to think. All it took was a black man getting elected for the GOP to speed up their inevitable demise.

Such poetic justice.

New Survey coming this weekend!
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#120763: May 2nd 2016 at 10:31:56 PM

Ryan is going to break the Hastert rule if he wants to. To me the fact that he keeps being elected in a swingy district in Wisconsin indicates that he's too strong for a primary challenge to work. Assuming that the Republican bench there can even find a candidate for a primary challenge. I think it's more likely that rather than primarying Ryan hardcore conservatives will ruthlessly attack him at every turn.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#120764: May 2nd 2016 at 10:39:18 PM

He might not get primary'd, but breaking the Hastert Rule exposes a lot of his colleagues down the line beneath him to being criticized as insufficiently Republican.

It's like while there's no reason technically for a bunch of moderate Senate Republicans to stonewall the president on a Supreme Court Justice or other confirmations, Mitch won't do it because even if he's safe, all of his buddies and team mates in the Senate from Swing States could get torpedo'd and replaced with a Democrat, unless you prove your bonafides to the hardcore voters who demand complete hardcore-itude or they'll stay home as a fuck you, or Primary the guy for not being reasonably GOP-y enough.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#120765: May 2nd 2016 at 10:42:34 PM

Incidentally, I think today is that Indiana primary. Cruz is trailing badly, from what I can see in polls.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
JackOLantern1337 Shameful Display from The Most Miserable Province in the Russian Empir Since: Aug, 2014 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
Shameful Display
#120766: May 3rd 2016 at 7:09:16 AM

Can Clinton win back Appalachia They loved her in 08, but lately the relationship has gone sour, especially after Clinton made pledges to fight the coal industry in order to placate the left during the primary.

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#120767: May 3rd 2016 at 7:17:58 AM

Frankly, the coal industry is a relic that needs to die. It's already all but gone anyway; the people clinging to it as if it's important are living out a fantasy. It's one of the nastiest, most unhealthy, most dangerous jobs out there anyway; I don't know why anyone would want to keep it.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
JackOLantern1337 Shameful Display from The Most Miserable Province in the Russian Empir Since: Aug, 2014 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
Shameful Display
#120768: May 3rd 2016 at 7:18:52 AM

[up] Because it's a fucking job and their's nothing else to do except lay about on welfare, which these people do not want to do.

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#120769: May 3rd 2016 at 7:19:49 AM

They have only their Republican slave-drivers to blame for that.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
desdendelle Hooded Crow from Land of Milk and Honey (Sergeant) Relationship Status: Hiding
JackOLantern1337 Shameful Display from The Most Miserable Province in the Russian Empir Since: Aug, 2014 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
Shameful Display
#120771: May 3rd 2016 at 7:21:48 AM

[up][up] For not having a job or for loafing about on welfare being considered ignoble?

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#120772: May 3rd 2016 at 7:22:49 AM

Both

Oh really when?
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#120773: May 3rd 2016 at 7:22:52 AM

Not with a minimum basic income and education supports to train themselves for other jobs. We have trillions of dollars of infrastructure rotting away; it would be incredibly efficient to hire all these people to fix up their own roads, bridges, pipes, etc.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#120774: May 3rd 2016 at 7:24:12 AM

There's also solar power. We could try to train people to start installing and maintaining solar panels. That would provide jobs and improve the environment.

carbon-mantis Collector Of Fine Oddities from Trumpland Since: Mar, 2010 Relationship Status: Married to my murderer
Collector Of Fine Oddities
#120775: May 3rd 2016 at 7:28:46 AM

[up][up]For construction, DOT stuff, and utility work here they don't hire locals though, they contract out to private companies that employ cheaper foreign laborers that are classified as "contractors" so they can't be counted as normal employees and given benefits.


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