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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Eschaton Since: Jul, 2010
#119926: Apr 23rd 2016 at 8:18:18 PM

[up][up]Oh I'm well aware of the anti-modernist sentiments that people have, which is more pronounced among conservatives ("my three year-old toddler could paint that" and so on). And I think it is rather telling that "Artistic Standards" drop to zero shortly after 1950.

But yes, enough of this tangent.

[down]I surmised as much. I'll just say my initial impressions are less than favorable, and leave it at that.

edited 23rd Apr '16 8:40:52 PM by Eschaton

Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#119927: Apr 23rd 2016 at 8:21:22 PM

@Eschaton: I'm a fairly big fan of Prager, since we agree on most issues, and he's able to present his ideas with a pretty level head. I also think he avoids Bias Steamroller more than some other conservative speakers, which is great.

Leviticus 19:34
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#119928: Apr 23rd 2016 at 8:38:24 PM

I'm not sure that's necessarily correct either; in the settled societies of the old world aristocracies tended to develop in lightly urbanized societies regardless of whether or not they relied upon bound labor (serfdom or slavery); the South was lightly urbanized, and the lack of major regulation on land ownership allowed vast swaths of land to accumulate in the hands of a small group of large scale landowners. Access to slavery as a pool of forced labor certainly helped exasperate this issue, but I wonder whether or not the South would have ended up with a system of de facto serfdom (the abolition of which would require a civil war, or failing that, a revolution) because of its economic system.

I am certain. The west was even more lightly urbanized, but the restrictions on slavery allowed it to flourish much faster. Even then the roughed life of the West endeared them to the South, so much that there was fear the Western states would join the rebellion. But again, I reiterate the fact that those states not in the control of the Slave Powers ultimately stayed loyal. Only the fact that the South maintained and sought to strengthen slavery pushed them into a more distinct mindset that led to treason.

darksidevoid Anti-Gnosis Weapon from The Frontiers (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Robosexual
Anti-Gnosis Weapon
#119929: Apr 23rd 2016 at 11:49:04 PM

I should have known that would function as a summoning ritual, Parable. [lol]

Give up the fight while you still can, Capsase. The man - no, living encyclopedia - before you cannot be bested.

GM: AGOG S4 & F/WC RP; Co-GM: TABA, SOTR, UUA RP; Sub-GM: TTS RP. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire.
TheHandle United Earth from Stockholm Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
United Earth
#119930: Apr 24th 2016 at 1:16:22 AM

The 11 nations of the USA.

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
RavenWilder Since: Apr, 2009
#119931: Apr 24th 2016 at 1:16:30 AM

I'd say the Civil War definitely was about more than just slavery.

Oh, the South's decision to secede was like 90+% about slavery. However, the North's reason for wanting to stop their secession was only partly fueled by abolitionist sentiment; it was at least as much about keeping the country in one piece on general principle. If the South had been a seperate nation from the beginning, the North would probably have been content to let them keep on keeping on.

Achaemenid HGW XX/7 from Ruschestraße 103, Haus 1 Since: Dec, 2011 Relationship Status: Giving love a bad name
HGW XX/7
#119932: Apr 24th 2016 at 1:47:41 AM

There is no Bernie Sanders movement (But there could be).

Jamelle Bouie makes a smart analysis of Bernie's problems right now, and how his wing of the Democratic Party should proceed going forward. A particularly apt analogy he makes is Goldwater in 1964 - the Republican right didn't quit after he lost, but they "tilled and seeded" the political ground so that 16 years later Ronald Reagan found a lively movement he could ride to the nomination and then the White House. Bouie points out that a progressive insurgency is nothing new for the Dems, and that while the math is slightly more favourable for Bernie than it was for Dean or Brown, the fact remains that the Democratic Party requires coalition-building and compromise to succeed.

[T]hese candidates brought unapologetically liberal positions to the table. Jerry Brown touted living-wage laws and opposed free-trade agreements like NAFTA; Bill Bradley called for universal health insurance and attacked Al Gore for backing the 1996 welfare-reform law; and Howard Dean rooted his campaign in his opposition to the Iraq War, running as a dovish alternative to John Kerry. But those substantive positions were often subordinate to a process critique; before anything else, they seemed to argue, we had to reform campaign finance and “get money out of politics,” to borrow a now-common phrase. They weren’t “men of the left” per se—Brown, in particular, had a testy relationship with the left—but in the context of the Democratic Party, that’s the space they held.

And within that space, they appealed to a narrow slice of the Democratic electorate. Predominantly white and disproportionately college-educated, these voters formed (and still form) the core of ideological liberalism within mainstream politics. Take the Dean campaign. In a 2005 survey, the Pew Research Center compared the demographics of Dean’s effort with those of the Democratic Party at large. The results don’t surprise. Just 25 percent of Democrats nationwide held college or postgraduate degrees, compared with 79 percent of Dean activists. And 92 percent were white, compared with 68 percent of all Democrats.

[...]

Which is to say that, like Dean or Bradley before for him, Sanders is a factional candidate of ideological liberal Democrats, who are largely white Democrats. The difference between now and then, however, is that, with the collapse of conservative white Democrats in the South and elsewhere, those liberal whites make up a larger share of the party. They provide more fuel for an insurgency. But they’re still not enough to overcome the influence of moderates and stalwart black voters, who form a majority of the party. That, in fact, was the fate of previous insurgencies, which crashed on the rocks of math. Ideological liberals are among the loudest Democrats, but they are a minority within the entire party. And while that minority is larger and stronger than it’s been in a generation, it’s still not strong enough to steer the party alone. It still has to play coalition politics.

Some key excerpts.

edited 24th Apr '16 1:49:39 AM by Achaemenid

Schild und Schwert der Partei
Greenmantle V from Greater Wessex, Britannia Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: Hiding
V
#119933: Apr 24th 2016 at 1:52:56 AM

[up]

...the fact remains that the Democratic Party requires coalition-building and compromise to succeed.

Which, if I'm not mistaken, seems to be in short supply amongst some of Sanders' supporters.

Keep Rolling On
TheHandle United Earth from Stockholm Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
United Earth
#119934: Apr 24th 2016 at 2:02:45 AM

Hard to be mistaken when using "seems" and "some". Way to make an irrefutable statement.

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#119935: Apr 24th 2016 at 2:47:02 AM

[up][up] Got a comparative source for that that's not simply someone reading social media and probably cherry picking?

I'll not that Sanders may well be learning the lesson, he's added a hood chunk of Hispanic and younge blacks to his voter base, he does seem to be expanding beyond the white middle class, simply not in the way many want to see.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Greenmantle V from Greater Wessex, Britannia Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: Hiding
V
#119936: Apr 24th 2016 at 2:47:33 AM

I like hedging my bets smile. And I'm of the opinion that if you're completely certain about something, you've probably missed something important.

Keep Rolling On
vandro Shop Owner from The little shop that wasn't Since: Jul, 2009
Shop Owner
#119937: Apr 24th 2016 at 4:17:26 AM

Is he alluding to "Bernie or Bust" rhetoric?

Achaemenid HGW XX/7 from Ruschestraße 103, Haus 1 Since: Dec, 2011 Relationship Status: Giving love a bad name
HGW XX/7
#119938: Apr 24th 2016 at 4:23:19 AM

I'll not that Sanders may well be learning the lesson, he's added a hood chunk of Hispanic and younge blacks to his voter base

Where? Also, that's an unfortunate spelling mistake.

edited 24th Apr '16 4:39:53 AM by Achaemenid

Schild und Schwert der Partei
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#119939: Apr 24th 2016 at 4:47:52 AM

It's an unfortunate one but an ammusing enough one that I think I'll leave it in. tongue

As for where, across the board I belive, he's been winning young black voters everyone and has been tying the Hispanic vote in states with a large Hispanic population. It doesn't get reported much as the press are even more hostile to Sanders then they are to Clinton.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#119940: Apr 24th 2016 at 4:55:35 AM

Seems like in Maryland Hillary may have caught up in youth vote support and has a large lead anyway (Maryland is sort of like the South, but with enough African-American voters to swing the state blue), though.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Achaemenid HGW XX/7 from Ruschestraße 103, Haus 1 Since: Dec, 2011 Relationship Status: Giving love a bad name
HGW XX/7
#119941: Apr 24th 2016 at 5:00:44 AM

@Silasw

He does less badly with them - he got about 40% in South Carolina IIRC, but he doesn't win everywhere.


Guardian sub-editors on point.

Despite efforts of prominent African American supporters and actor Danny Glover, eclectic crowd of 6,000 was mostly white and included man in bear suit.

Schild und Schwert der Partei
Greenmantle V from Greater Wessex, Britannia Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: Hiding
V
#119942: Apr 24th 2016 at 5:09:40 AM

[up] Shouldn't the man in the bear suit be running around London at the moment? note  smile

edited 24th Apr '16 5:13:43 AM by Greenmantle

Keep Rolling On
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#119943: Apr 24th 2016 at 5:13:27 AM

[up][up] 40% on low turnout is a good chunk, it's not a winning one yet, but he's certainly expanding the base from what it use to be.

edited 24th Apr '16 5:16:50 AM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#119944: Apr 24th 2016 at 5:53:39 AM

Does that sub-point factor in prior probability?

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Falrinn Since: Dec, 2014
#119946: Apr 24th 2016 at 6:16:40 AM

[up][up][up] At this point I don't think it will be enough to make up Sander's 241 pledged delegate deficit.

While there are 1,400 pledged delegates left, unlike the Republicans, the DNC requires all states to use a proportional system. That means Sanders doesn't just have to win more then he loses, he needs to win big and do so consistently. That's not impossible, but it's highly improbable (and would require multiple repeats of Michigan in terms of polls underestimating his actual support).

Without a majority of pledged delegates, Sanders has no chance to sway enough superdelegates because by his own logic they should back Hillary in that situation.

edited 24th Apr '16 6:16:51 AM by Falrinn

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#119947: Apr 24th 2016 at 6:23:04 AM

There is also a deficit in the popular vote to overcome. Clinton has accumulated a large lead there too.

Although if memory serves, Michigan was a case of the polls narrowing before the actual vote, not a "ballot box surprise".

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#119948: Apr 24th 2016 at 6:55:30 AM

Even a few Michigan repeats wouldn't be enough for Sanders, he only won there by just over 1% and picked up 66 delegates to Clinton's 64.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
GameGuruGG Vampire Hunter from Castlevania (Before Recorded History)
Vampire Hunter
#119949: Apr 24th 2016 at 10:58:16 AM

the Democratic Party requires coalition-building and compromise to succeed.

And how would Bernie Sanders be able to build coalitions and compromise with the Democratic Party when the Democratic Party started at "Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee"? The fact that Sanders has been competitive enough to have Clinton expound more leftist views compared to what would have been expected from a Democratic nominee in the general is compromise. The compromise here is "Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, but she needs to push the country to the left more because the Republican voters' fascist and theocratic desires scare the shit out of us."

Wizard Needs Food Badly
Bat178 Since: May, 2011
#119950: Apr 24th 2016 at 11:13:32 AM

Remind me, how did the US wind up as the only current Superpower with guys like these clowns running the show?


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