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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#119501: Apr 19th 2016 at 9:17:02 PM

[up][up]You're saying these things as if they're guaranteed to happen, without looking at all the factors that imply they won't; ie it's impossible to keep these disenfranchisement laws any kind of a secret in today's world and there's already pushback on all the idiots trying to enact discriminatory laws. Change takes time. But the future isn't nearly as fucking dire as you're trying to make it out to be.

@Protag: My opinion on the guy is if 9/11 hadn't happened he'd have probably gone down as a relatively unoffensive and frequently forgotten president. He didn't like the limelight when he was in office, and while his No Child Left Behind laws were bullshit in action he mostly seemed to want to do the right thing. If that tragedy hadn't happened, I don't think nearly as many people would be thinking of him today. In some ways, he's a victim of people in the wrong place at the wrong time.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#119502: Apr 19th 2016 at 9:19:39 PM

[up] You do realize that the number of people who actually care about and are engaged in the political process are in the vast minority in the United States right? Voter turnout is much lower than pretty much any other first world nation, which is cause for alarm.

Flawed as it is, the American system works reasonably well when a large portion of the population is engaged in the political process. As things stand, the apathy of the population exasperates these flaws, and I don't think it's unreasonable to be worried that we're headed towards a crisis which might endanger our democracy.

edited 19th Apr '16 9:26:16 PM by CaptainCapsase

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#119503: Apr 19th 2016 at 9:26:54 PM

[up] You're exagerating, 54% turnout in a presidential year (2012) is bad no doubt, but it's not a "vast minority", it's not even a minority. The 36% turnout for the 2014 mid terms was ceritnsly a minority, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it a vast one.

edited 19th Apr '16 9:27:43 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#119504: Apr 19th 2016 at 9:28:26 PM

[up] Presidential elections are the only election where political engagement in the United States is anywhere close to acceptable, and that's only one part of the system.

CassidyTheDevil Since: Jan, 2013
#119505: Apr 19th 2016 at 9:35:37 PM

But the future isn't nearly as fucking dire as you're trying to make it out to be.

You're both being too emotional, I don't agree with either of you, and this line of conversation is boring.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#119506: Apr 19th 2016 at 9:38:54 PM

[up] I don't think I'm being pretty emotional, things are just moving a bit too quickly for me to be able to collect my thoughts, leading to a bunch of half finished posts. Speaking of which, that citation will have to wait until tomorrow when I can get in touch with a friend whose a political science PHD student.

edited 19th Apr '16 9:50:34 PM by CaptainCapsase

AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#119507: Apr 19th 2016 at 9:47:17 PM

Cassidy, if that's how you feel you can just leave the thread until later, or bring up something of interest to you, instead of making pointless commentary that contributes nothing.

Captain, you're being alarmist. You're also hardly the first to note the percentage of people who vote in this country. That, again, is a problem that requires work. But math about democracies being likely to turn into dictatorships is, again, ignoring the fact that we, the US, are pretty fucking unlikely to do that in the near future. Also, it's weird that you seemed to imply that Clinton would be the cause of that earlier? But no, you're going to go with your mathematical proofs instead of discussing the current situation we're in. The kind of math you want to use isn't actually useful here.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#119508: Apr 19th 2016 at 9:52:28 PM

[up] The whole "it's mathematically proven" thing deserves a bit more qualification than I initially provided; the math I'm talking about is a mixture of game theory and statistics, and while it was obviously an overstatement to talk about that as if it was an absolute truth, the point I was trying to make is that it's easier for a presidential democracy to become a nondemocratic system than non-presidential forms of democracy, and as such, it's doubly important for citizens in such a system to be engaged in the political process.

Additionally, I should add that I'm taking a long view here; obviously the United States isn't going to become a dictatorship overnight or in the near future, but I'm talking on the scale of decades if not a century or even more. Moreover, the scenario I considered to be a cause for alarm wasn't a dictator seizing power (outside of an edge scenario), rather it was the potential for a gradual transition towards what I believe is termed "guided democracy", a theoretically democratic system which is, through the application of soft power and social engineering, effectively rigged so as to create an oligarchy.

In fact, there's a few studies which suggest that's already in the process of happening, insofar as the decision making of congress has no correlation with the policy preferences of the general public and a very strong correlation with the policy preferences of the extremely wealthy. My concern is that, going into the future, these undemocratic tendencies will coalesce into a de facto oligarchy that's effectively impossible to dislodge without a violent revolution.

edited 19th Apr '16 10:37:54 PM by CaptainCapsase

Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#119509: Apr 19th 2016 at 9:54:42 PM

Both Cruz and Trump has said they might use nukes in Syria, yes nuclear weapons. I am sorry but No. Just... No.

Let's piss off the entire world and watch as how we get sanctioned or worse and our economy hits rock bottom just cause of damn republicans nuke some town with a hell of a lot of civilians still in it.

edited 19th Apr '16 10:04:00 PM by Memers

theLibrarian Since: Jul, 2009
#119510: Apr 19th 2016 at 9:58:36 PM

There's a reason that multiple officials have to give the OK for that to happen. We will either become an international pariah or a small-scale nuclear war will kick off.

Greenmantle V from Greater Wessex, Britannia Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: Hiding
V
#119511: Apr 19th 2016 at 10:14:00 PM

[up][up][up] In other words, you're a fan of compulsory voting then?

edited 19th Apr '16 10:14:59 PM by Greenmantle

Keep Rolling On
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#119512: Apr 19th 2016 at 10:17:32 PM

[up] Yes, though obviously not under penalty of time in prison or anything particularly draconian like that. A big part of how a guided democracy is hypothesized to work is large obstacles and few incentives for voting; such a system thrives off of voter apathy.

Additionally, I am also in favor of totally excising private money from elections; in my view, campaigns should be publically funded, so as to minimize the conflict of interest that are present in the current system, and in order to even the playing field between a candidate who has significant financial means of their own (ie Trump) and one who does not.

Adding on to that, I would do away entirely with first past the post voting in favor of a proportional system; that's the biggest reason why the United States' political environment is dominated by two parties;; and while you do inevitably see the formation of a left wing and right wing coalition in a proportional system, but it's somewhat more flexible than the two monolithic parties, and doesn't have the problem of wasted votes in the same way that a first past the post electoral system does. This would obviously require significant reworking of the way congress works, so this would be something of a stretch goal in the hypothetical scenario where I had any bearing on the course of the American political system.

edited 19th Apr '16 10:29:03 PM by CaptainCapsase

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#119513: Apr 19th 2016 at 10:31:35 PM

So from what I gather. Hillary did win big this night and Trump has Trump-ed his rivals. is that the right take on this?

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#119515: Apr 19th 2016 at 10:35:47 PM

Semi-fortunately, then. <Repeats that Cruz-may-be-worse-than-Trump refrain>

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#119516: Apr 19th 2016 at 10:41:21 PM

[up] Cruz or Trump are both going to get stomped come November barring a Clinton indictment which would have happened months ago if it was going to happen, and even then, Sandsrs also crushes both of them, so there's obviously a backup, nor would him pulling off what could only be described as a miracle and winning in spite of the loss tonight be at all helpful for the GOP.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#119517: Apr 19th 2016 at 10:46:41 PM

Clinton won 57% of the vote, so I don't know if that counts as a landslide, especially as the delegates so proportionally, she only won 31 delegates over Sander's.

Trump however got 60% of the vote and all but three delegates.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#119518: Apr 19th 2016 at 10:49:50 PM

[up] There aren't that many delegates left sadly.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#119519: Apr 19th 2016 at 10:51:06 PM

See, the issue I have with Cruz is that he won't get crushed hard enough in states with Senate elections. That and he looks more moderate despite me not seeing any substantial good differences from Trump - and Trump has already made "hate great again" as we read in that Huff Post article so him actually winning does not affect it much.

Regarding Clinton 57-43% does sound fairly landslide-y to me actually. Not overly saddened about this, "Clinton was unqualified" and that "how do you break up the banks" gaffe were incredibly thoughtless from Sanders' part. I mean, even Trump has some concrete ideas about how to make his border wall.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#119520: Apr 19th 2016 at 10:55:53 PM

Yeah Cruz is unlikely to have the same down ticket effect that Trump will, though a Trump third party run might do that for him. It's gonna be an interesting November.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#119521: Apr 19th 2016 at 10:59:43 PM

A third party run is not going to help the other side in downballot elections. It could do even the opposite if a party splits its presidential election vote but stays together in the downballot races since you'll have a larger combined turnout from voters which only accept one side of a split.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#119522: Apr 19th 2016 at 11:13:38 PM

I don't know, I could see Trump's third part run supporters refusing to vote Republican down ballot out of spite, hell Trump has the ego to possibly run down ballot candidates under his own banner. Either of those two things would cost the Publicans votes, remember Trump is taking away the Reoublican base, he's not adding to it.

Plus a Trump third party run would keep the entire mess of the Republican primaries in the air, there would be no escaping all the toxic mess, that could easily drive away Republican voters who might have otherwise been able to start paying attention in September and not be driven away.

edited 19th Apr '16 11:14:38 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
GameGuruGG Vampire Hunter from Castlevania (Before Recorded History)
Vampire Hunter
#119523: Apr 19th 2016 at 11:53:07 PM

One good thing to come out of the primary in New York... It is now mathematically impossible for anyone in the Republican primaries to get the delegates needed to win without a brokered convention except Donald Trump.

Wizard Needs Food Badly
Achaemenid HGW XX/7 from Ruschestraße 103, Haus 1 Since: Dec, 2011 Relationship Status: Giving love a bad name
HGW XX/7
#119524: Apr 20th 2016 at 1:02:12 AM

Based Krugman

Schild und Schwert der Partei
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#119525: Apr 20th 2016 at 4:45:44 AM

The main issue of complaint with New York with regards to the voting blocking and the ID issues that is of note here is New York is a bit of a screwball state state:

It runs on Fusion Voting which lets you spread your votes around multiple parties I believe, and as a result, New York has three parties of significance:

  • The Democrats
  • The Republicans
  • The Working Family Party

The Working Family Party is basically a functional green/labor esque party in the state that works, technically, as a natural ally of the Democrats as a minority coalition partner. But the current governor, Cuomo, keeps fucking them over for various reasons, reining in on pro-Labor/Left Wing campaign promises and then signing off on pro-Republican/CEO legislation from the New York legislature.

The basic issue, though, is New York has almost byzantine party switching and party registration rules that require you to do it MONTHS beforehand, combined with the Closed Primary system.

The Working Family Party, by mass membership vote, endorsed Sanders as the Presidential Candidate their party would back.

Basically the complaint is that the Democratic Party made it very difficult for the Working Family Party members to vote for Sanders (i.e. their preferred candidate), when the two parties are supposed to be BF Fs. You can rapidly see why there'd be cries of "BULLSHIT!" when most states don't have primary lock outs this long or hard.

Also, Fighteer, while there's always been an Anti-Establishment mood, keep in mind the approval rating of Congress is at a historic low. And Trump and Sanders doing as well as they are only happens when there's generally a huge amount of resentment against the system, above normal.

edited 20th Apr '16 4:47:29 AM by PotatoesRock


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