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Nov 2023 Mod notice:


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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Xopher001 Since: Jul, 2012
#118226: Apr 4th 2016 at 8:41:04 AM

[nja]

Jesus, the fact that people would even CONSIDER...

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#118227: Apr 4th 2016 at 9:16:28 AM

Whether total population should be acceptable for districting is rather debatable.

I've thought about drawing up my own map of where each state's districts should be defined but then I discovered one online that communicates my thoughts pretty well. Here is what I think is a reasonable definition of what each district should be.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#118228: Apr 4th 2016 at 9:24:25 AM

Well, is that Switzerland-style variable-member a-district-per-state proportional representation?

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#118229: Apr 4th 2016 at 10:28:51 AM

In order to avoid outing myself as a fake intellectual snob, I'm going to pretend I was not completely lost in all the big, hyphenated words used and just say, "Yes, of course."

But yes, I support eliminating the "districts" concept, hence my little joke. It seems like the best cure for gerrymandering.

edited 4th Apr '16 10:29:57 AM by TobiasDrake

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
theLibrarian Since: Jul, 2009
#118230: Apr 4th 2016 at 10:47:02 AM

Well, my family let me have it on my political beliefs last night.

Shame that most of their arguments were "I don't want to pay more taxes" though. It's a good enough reason, I guess, but Cruz isn't gonna be any better.

Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#118231: Apr 4th 2016 at 10:48:14 AM

The Fox News poll has Trump up by 4 in Wisconsin.

My fear is a brokered convention leads to a more electable GOP candidate, so i'm kinda rooting for Trump in WI, the first-round majority is much easier if he gets a clean win there.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#118232: Apr 4th 2016 at 10:52:19 AM

My fear is a brokered convention leads to a more electable GOP candidate, so i'm kinda rooting for Trump in WI, the first-round majority is much easier if he gets a clean win there.

Same for me and Cruz is the most likely alternative to Trump, which is even less inspiring. (Kasich may be the one most likely to beat Hillary, but with that delegate count he's very much a rejected candidate.)

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#118233: Apr 4th 2016 at 11:09:14 AM

I don't know how I feel.

On the one hand, I've heard the arguments that Cruz would be more electable than Trump and therefore more dangerous.

On the other hand, the immense fervor that Trump whips up in the voterbase has done a great job of making him seem plenty electable. He has TONS of supporters that Cruz doesn't. That's why he's winning.

In short, both Cruz and Sanders are on the receiving end of arguments that don't make sense to me. Somehow, they're both "more electable" despite losing the primary by a rather large margin because not enough people are voting for them?

What's more electable than getting a majority of votes from people who would rather see you in office than the other guy?

edited 4th Apr '16 11:11:04 AM by TobiasDrake

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#118234: Apr 4th 2016 at 11:11:40 AM

Not necessarily, being electable in a primary and being electable in a general are different things.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#118235: Apr 4th 2016 at 11:13:59 AM

[up] This, exactly. The population of primary voters is significantly different from the population of general election voters. On the one hand, you have only to appeal to your own party's base; moreover, you have to appeal to that subset of your base that votes in primaries. On the other hand, you have to get enough of all voters to take an electoral majority.

edited 4th Apr '16 11:14:13 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Ekuran Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
#118236: Apr 4th 2016 at 11:14:27 AM

Because primaries are not a general election where everyone votes.

Which should be obvious.

BlueNinja0 The Mod with the Migraine from Taking a left at Albuquerque Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
The Mod with the Migraine
#118237: Apr 4th 2016 at 11:28:48 AM

Somehow, they're both "more electable" despite losing the primary by a rather large margin because not enough people are voting for them?
To be fair, the Sanders-Clinton margin is much smaller than the Trump-Cruz margin.

And speaking of, an interactive NYTimes article with delegate counts, that lets you adjust how it looks based on the percentage of votes your candidate receives. For Bernie to get a majority, he has to pull a minimum of 57% of the vote in every remaining state - not impossible, but difficult. By comparison, if Kasich got 0 votes, and Cruz pulled an unprecidented 90% of the votes, he still would not have the majority needed to win. Trump only needs to pull 40% to have enough delegates to get the first vote pick.

That’s the epitome of privilege right there, not considering armed nazis a threat to your life. - Silasw
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#118238: Apr 4th 2016 at 11:35:05 AM

Take note that I also prefer Trump to Cruz because I am not convinced that Cruz is better than Trump even from a policy perspective.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#118239: Apr 4th 2016 at 11:41:45 AM

Trump wins 30-50% of GOP primary voters, who themselves make up only a fraction of registered Republicans or even the independent primary voters who break for Trump.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#118240: Apr 4th 2016 at 11:56:21 AM

I note from that delegate tracker that it seems to assume California will go mostly for Trump in the primary. Wonder how plausible that is.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
theLibrarian Since: Jul, 2009
#118241: Apr 4th 2016 at 12:07:35 PM

I actually think New York may be one of the more bitterly-divided states. Clinton was Senator for 8 years but Sanders was born and grew up in Brooklyn. NYC was also the center of the Occupy movement.

Greenmantle V from Greater Wessex, Britannia Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: Hiding
V
#118242: Apr 4th 2016 at 12:14:23 PM

[up] But what about upstate New York or Long Island?

Keep Rolling On
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#118243: Apr 4th 2016 at 12:15:58 PM

See, my impression is that usually New York and California vote late in the primary and thus usually don't matter.

In this primary (with Sanders playing catch-up and Trump playing run away to the magic 1237 delegate treshold) instead they will be key players, being delegate rich states and strongly contested.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#118244: Apr 4th 2016 at 12:16:25 PM

the LA Times on that. It scares me a lot that I live 10 miles away from that place.

BlueNinja0 The Mod with the Migraine from Taking a left at Albuquerque Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
The Mod with the Migraine
#118245: Apr 4th 2016 at 12:22:51 PM

[up] That close? I've probably driven past your house then.

That’s the epitome of privilege right there, not considering armed nazis a threat to your life. - Silasw
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#118246: Apr 4th 2016 at 12:32:51 PM

Blue don't you spend half your time on an aircraft carrier? Haven't you technically driven past entire countries? tongue

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
BlueNinja0 The Mod with the Migraine from Taking a left at Albuquerque Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
The Mod with the Migraine
#118247: Apr 4th 2016 at 12:36:54 PM

[up] I have, indeed, driven past entire countriesnote , but except for Spain, Morroco, Malaysia, and Singapore, I've been more than 10 miles away from them.note  And depending on which direction those 10 miles are, I might have been even closer to his house.

Which is kind of cool. Want to meet for dinner or something next time I drive through?

That’s the epitome of privilege right there, not considering armed nazis a threat to your life. - Silasw
ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#118248: Apr 4th 2016 at 1:41:50 PM

Upstate NY could go either way - a significant number of people around here don't exactly "like" Clinton (whether via Republican smear tactics or just a general sense of "she's not trustworthy"), and she's not exactly winning huge fans in the hunting community with her newfound advocacy on stricter gun control, so Sanders has the advantage in both of those points. That said, figuring out the Democrat-only voters (just got my notice informing me that my affiliation change will take effect after November 8th) is a harder call to make.

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
theLibrarian Since: Jul, 2009
#118249: Apr 4th 2016 at 9:54:29 PM

Apparently Clinton and Sanders have finally agreed to a debate. It's gonna be in Brooklyn, Sanders's home turf.

AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#118250: Apr 4th 2016 at 10:13:08 PM

I'd think that we'd consider Vermont his home turf far more, considering that's where he's been serving for several decades. Yes, I know he was born there, but he's the Vermont Senator.


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