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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#113426: Feb 27th 2016 at 8:57:37 AM

[up]Michigan and Ohio could swing Trump over Clinton based on economic platforms.

If Clinton and Trump are the nominees, historically low turnout can throw the election towards either party regardless of traditional demographics. They're both extremely unpopular candidates.

edited 27th Feb '16 8:59:19 AM by SolipsistOwl

darksidevoid Anti-Gnosis Weapon from The Frontiers (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Robosexual
Anti-Gnosis Weapon
#113427: Feb 27th 2016 at 9:02:43 AM

[up][up]Hmmm. My bad; you're right, it's far from a majority of battlegrounds. I forgot to discount WI. I was mainly thinking of OH, PA, and NC.

edited 27th Feb '16 9:03:19 AM by darksidevoid

GM: AGOG S4 & F/WC RP; Co-GM: TABA, SOTR, UUA RP; Sub-GM: TTS RP. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire.
ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#113428: Feb 27th 2016 at 9:09:46 AM

[up][up]

Not if the Republican screed of disenfranchising voters to "protect against Voter Fraud"note  pan out like they want it to. Of course, then the Establishment is Hoist by His Own Petard if Trump gets in because of it.

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
GameGuruGG Vampire Hunter from Castlevania (Before Recorded History)
Vampire Hunter
#113429: Feb 27th 2016 at 9:13:40 AM

Just because Trump caters to racist, sexist, homophobic jerks does not mean he isn't progressive on other issues. I think the biggest mistake that progressives make is assuming that only people who follow the standard conservative view can be racist, sexist, homophobic jerks. People who are liberal in regards to a whole host of other issues can still also be racist, sexist, and/or homophobic jerks.

Wizard Needs Food Badly
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#113430: Feb 27th 2016 at 9:14:43 AM

[up]That is a problem I've noticed fairly often. It's part of the reason I stopped going on Daily Kos.

SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#113431: Feb 27th 2016 at 9:19:08 AM

Identity politics, too.

Each Republican debate and many conservative pundits have offered comments about the "diversity" of the GOP candidates, as if skin-color alone justifies the offensive rhetoric.

Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#113432: Feb 27th 2016 at 9:33:03 AM

Michigan is another white whale. I remember when Romney thought he could do well there because he was from there and they just elected Rick Snyder and...

It's just not going to happen.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#113433: Feb 27th 2016 at 9:46:26 AM

This may be a stupid question, but I'm sincere in asking it:

Do we know that blacks and Hispanics are going to be "in lockstep" opposition to Trump (as in are there polls and such saying so) or is it a (reasonable) assumption being made due to Trump's... how do I put this... everything he says & does?

Also, a thought has occurred that I may a bit slow in reaching, but as I typed this I was thinking to myself how I could never view Trump as electable because, whatever his qualifications, the man unleashes stuff like "going after terrorists' families" and calling Mexican immigrants rapists and, regardless of sincerity, thinks that's what will get him elected.

The thing that's just hit me: That's probably rather indicative of how he views the people of the United States, if he thinks that will get the majority behind him.

My personal ranking on who I'd vote for when election day rolls around is Sanders > Clinton > Rubio > Trump > Cruz (despite the above, Cruz ranks lower because I'm heavily biased against evangelicals in positions of political power)

P.S. Who's the governor whose state wants to recall him within a month of being sworn in? I was curious and wanted to follow up. Partly because California's recall of Gray Davis was my first real firsthand experience in politics.

edited 27th Feb '16 9:52:23 AM by sgamer82

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#113434: Feb 27th 2016 at 9:53:10 AM

Remember Trump has the lowest favour ability rating of any candidate, Nate Silver (the guy who called the called 2012 election state by state I belive) did a bit in January on how Trump is not as popular with general election voters as the Republican big doners think.[1]

edited 27th Feb '16 9:53:38 AM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
darksidevoid Anti-Gnosis Weapon from The Frontiers (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Robosexual
Anti-Gnosis Weapon
#113435: Feb 27th 2016 at 10:00:39 AM

[up][up]I believe that was Kentucky.

GM: AGOG S4 & F/WC RP; Co-GM: TABA, SOTR, UUA RP; Sub-GM: TTS RP. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire.
darksidevoid Anti-Gnosis Weapon from The Frontiers (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Robosexual
Anti-Gnosis Weapon
#113437: Feb 27th 2016 at 10:09:24 AM

Sure thing.

GM: AGOG S4 & F/WC RP; Co-GM: TABA, SOTR, UUA RP; Sub-GM: TTS RP. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#113438: Feb 27th 2016 at 10:14:08 AM

Is that a serious thing or some more political drama à la Benghazi and Fort Lee?

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
GameGuruGG Vampire Hunter from Castlevania (Before Recorded History)
Vampire Hunter
#113439: Feb 27th 2016 at 10:18:37 AM

[up][up][up][up][up][up] Blacks, Hispanics, and Muslims are "in lockstep" opposition to the Republican Party as a whole. To get around that, the Republican Party would have to drop their talking points in regards to Blacks, Hispanics, and Muslims, which the Republican Base would revolt against. See Donald Trump and how he pretty much eliminated everything except those talking points and just ramped up those particular talking points.

edited 27th Feb '16 10:20:26 AM by GameGuruGG

Wizard Needs Food Badly
SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#113440: Feb 27th 2016 at 10:21:25 AM

Clinton has low favourability as well, but a large number of Democratic voters seem resigned or content with voting for her as the Democratic nominee.

Logic suggests many traditional Republican voters (even Latino and black) might vote for Trump simply due to party-loyalty or a resignation to lack of alternative.

At best, the Latino voting demographic is fairly new, so Trump alienating them wouldn't necessarily lose the Republican party any votes it wouldn't have tried too hard for anyways. It might, however, steer them towards the Democratic nominee and boost their turnout.

edited 27th Feb '16 10:22:47 AM by SolipsistOwl

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#113441: Feb 27th 2016 at 10:23:43 AM

I know a few republicans who despise Trump enough to vote in Hil despite hating her as well. Devil they know vs devil they don't mentalithy.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#113442: Feb 27th 2016 at 10:25:07 AM

@Septimus Heap if you mean Bevin, as I've understood from reading, the guy won the election by getting a surge in votes when he'd been trailing up to the end, then as soon as he was in office began to slash budgets on planned parenthood and the like, as well as ethics committees and watchdog groups that might potentially call him out. The current result being a petition to impeach him.

The general view seems like he's beholden to the religious right.

edited 27th Feb '16 10:28:49 AM by sgamer82

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#113443: Feb 27th 2016 at 10:31:13 AM

Hillary has a net favour ability of -8 according to fivethirtyeight, Trump has -25, the two don't compare.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#113444: Feb 27th 2016 at 10:50:09 AM

Clinton is -22. Kerry lost to Bush in '04 with -7 favorability.

All evidence suggests Clinton and Trump are within a similar range of unpopularity. A race between the two would be a toss-up.

Although they both end up ahead in most polls, Sanders’ margin over Trump is generally very comfortable, while Clinton’s is smaller. Clinton’s average lead over Trump is just 2.8 percent, while Sanders’ lead is a full 6 points:

Then there’s the data about how each candidate is perceived. Put simply, Hillary Clinton is an extremely unpopular political figure. By contrast, even after enduring months of attacks from the Clinton camp and its large number of media surrogates, Sanders remains a popular figure.

A Gallup poll released this week reported that “29 percent of Americans offer a positive observation about Clinton while 51 percent express something negative.” As Gallup rather starkly put it: “Unfortunately for Clinton, the negative associations currently outnumber the positive ones by a sizable margin, and even among Democrats, the negatives are fairly high.” Sanders is, of course, a more unknown quantity, but “the public’s comments about Sanders can be summarized as 26 percent positive and 20 percent negative, with the rest categorized as neutral, other or no opinion.”

Or look at the same metric for critical states. In Ohio, for example, Sanders’ favorability rating is +3 (44-41 percent), while Clinton’s is negative 20 (37-57 percent).

With Donald Trump Looming, Should Dems Take a Huge Electability Gamble by Nominating Hillary Clinton?

edited 27th Feb '16 10:51:42 AM by SolipsistOwl

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#113445: Feb 27th 2016 at 10:55:00 AM

Kerry v Bush was an incumbent election. Different situation.

Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#113446: Feb 27th 2016 at 10:57:55 AM

And Bush's margin of victory was pretty narrow. If Ohio had flipped, he would have lost, right?

SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#113447: Feb 27th 2016 at 10:58:47 AM

[up][up]So what's Clinton's excuse? She's not facing an incumbent with established credentials and voters, and she's far more unpopular than Kerry.

edited 27th Feb '16 10:59:18 AM by SolipsistOwl

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#113448: Feb 27th 2016 at 11:01:10 AM

She's had decades of the biggest media conglomerate and half the political power in the nation doing everything they can to tear her down just for existing.

Oh really when?
SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#113449: Feb 27th 2016 at 11:06:53 AM

If that were true, why run her?

Clinton herself and her staff have worked with the the media on how to cover them—as far as suggesting specific phrases and words that were then used by journalists in said articles.

Her unpopularity has more to do with her and her policies than any impression created by the media, right-wing or otherwise. The Democrats running her is a risky gamble.

edited 27th Feb '16 11:22:11 AM by SolipsistOwl

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#113450: Feb 27th 2016 at 11:19:48 AM

Because its her "turn". Democratic party politics favors seniority (even if the voting base does not). That and the rising stars of the party (Booker, the Castros, etc.) are either not experienced enough or don't have requisite executive experience.


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