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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#113401: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:02:09 PM

The examples the professor offers as evidence his model works are all from elections where presidents were running for their second term. And only from Clinton onwards. How does "Incumbents likely to get reelected" translate to "Trump will win"?

darksidevoid Anti-Gnosis Weapon from The Frontiers (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Robosexual
Anti-Gnosis Weapon
#113402: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:05:23 PM

We're all going to die.

No, we're not. First of all, it's impossible for me, myself to extrapolate on the usefulness of the model based on the article, because that article and the article it links through to both include almost no information to that point. Second, it is extremely easy to lull yourself into thinking you've created a highly predictive model in this way unless you are deep, deep, deep into statistics, which this professor is not. Third, I don't feel like typing out my own reasoning in strenuous detail, so I'll steal a well-written bit from commenter "David Brown":

As a professor who teaches grad level applied stats, I have to agree with [other commenter] Michael. Let me expand, and point out that with elections only every 4 years and primaries a relatively recent phenomenon, there are too few data points in this model. Probably because of such a limited dataset, the professor only cross-validated his model (holding out one election at a time for validation and error estimation). The problem with this is that he used ALL of the data to decide which predictors to include.

Finally it is worth noting that most of the presidential elections in the calibration dataset haven’t been close. So yes, when an incumbent does very poorly in an early primary that is usually a bad sign for the incumbent party, but that simplistic relationship isn’t going to work in all cases. And yes, when a challenger dominates their primary that is usually the sign of a strong challenging candidate but this year by any objective measure the GOP field is incredibly weak and fractured.

It might also be worth noting that he has only used the model in predictive mode twice, and predicted Obama to beat McCain by 0.2% in 2008 whereas he actually beat McCain quite soundly. Counting only wins and losses without looking at the size of the error relative to the closeness of the election is misleading.

So the professor’s model has some fundamentally sound reasoning, but at this point he has only 2 true validation points. And for one of those data points his model was actually quite far off!

edited 26th Feb '16 9:06:57 PM by darksidevoid

GM: AGOG S4 & F/WC RP; Co-GM: TABA, SOTR, UUA RP; Sub-GM: TTS RP. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire.
Sixthhokage1 Since: Feb, 2013
#113403: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:06:19 PM

Gonna copy over a couple comments from the article.

Wow, he predicted the incumbents would win. Great feat of prognostication there Nostradamus. But by all means, keep it up. All these do is motivate people to vote, and when voter turnout is high, Democrats win.

Statistical models are know to fail when dealing with outliers: case so far out there that they don't really fit well with the model and completely stand out. Nothing will argue that Trump is not typical in any way or form.

ILoveDogs Since: May, 2010
#113404: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:06:40 PM

Oh...

...well, damnit, I need to panic about something.

darksidevoid Anti-Gnosis Weapon from The Frontiers (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Robosexual
Anti-Gnosis Weapon
#113405: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:10:32 PM

Don't we all, sometimes?

Well, at least it was a learning opportunity!

On the topic of Political Science, WaPo has this article on some interesting research that I really enjoyed reading about (as a Poli Sci nerd), although I'm still mulling over what flaws they might have in their methodology.

GM: AGOG S4 & F/WC RP; Co-GM: TABA, SOTR, UUA RP; Sub-GM: TTS RP. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire.
Cid El Cid Since: Jul, 2015 Relationship Status: Hiding
El Cid
#113406: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:11:03 PM

Oh... ...well, damnit, I need to panic about something.
You could always panic about China. That's always funny.

ILoveDogs Since: May, 2010
#113407: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:13:35 PM

[up] I try not to be racist in my panicking. Anything that can get me in a general state of terror and paranoia at all times should do it.

pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#113408: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:16:10 PM

Besides, it's taken. Panicking about China is Jack's job.

This Space Intentionally Left Blank.
AngelusNox Warder of the damned from The guard of the gates of oblivion Since: Dec, 2014 Relationship Status: Married to the job
Warder of the damned
#113409: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:19:46 PM

[up][up] There is always the EVIL RUSKIES

edited 26th Feb '16 9:20:09 PM by AngelusNox

Inter arma enim silent leges
Cid El Cid Since: Jul, 2015 Relationship Status: Hiding
El Cid
#113410: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:23:21 PM

[up][up]Well, I haven't seen him in the last 20 or so posts, so I kind of miss him.

On a side note... well, more like "on topic", I find it amusing how my country isn't all that worried about the US elections despite the fact that we'd get a very bad time depending on who wins the primary/general.

Either our government is already preparing tobend over and give away half of our territory (again) or the rumours about us being protected by Russia's nuclear umbrella are true. [lol]

edited 26th Feb '16 9:23:42 PM by Cid

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#113411: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:45:28 PM

I'm not too worried about my own country (Canada) if the GOP, other than Cruz, wins the White House. With Harper gone there is little chance that Ottawa will send soldiers to die for whatever debacle the neo-cons decide to do this time. And the chances of Trump invading Canada because he mistook it for Mexico are pretty light.tongue

I'm more worried about the civil rights of over 300000000 people being eroded if the GOP wins.

edited 26th Feb '16 9:54:10 PM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#113412: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:46:30 PM

It's gonna be a lot more than 300,000

Oh really when?
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#113413: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:46:58 PM

Whoops, missed three zeroes there.

edited 26th Feb '16 9:54:17 PM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#113414: Feb 26th 2016 at 9:52:17 PM

Crazy that Trump is a more progressive candidate than not only the other Republican candidates, but also Clinton. He could utterly demolish her in Ohio and Wisconsin by telling the truth about 'free trade.'

On the eve of South Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary, the U.S. State Department released 1,500 pages of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s emails from her tenure as secretary of state. Included in the 881 emails published Friday night are messages highlighting 'Clinton lobbying for a controversial Colombian trade deal she previously pledged to oppose.

During her 2008 presidential run, Clinton said she opposed the deal because “I am very concerned about the history of violence against trade unionists in Colombia.” She later declared, “I oppose the deal. I have spoken out against the deal, I will vote against the deal, and I will do everything I can to urge the Congress to reject the Colombia Free Trade Agreement.”

But newly released emails show that as secretary of state, Clinton was personally lobbying Democratic members of Congress to support the deal, even promising one senior lawmaker that the deal would extend labor protections to Colombian workers that would be as good or better than those enjoyed by many workers in the United States.

Froman — a former Citigroup executive who as trade representative was lobbying for passage of the deal — responded by thanking Clinton for her "help and support.” Hormats, a former vice chairman of Goldman Sachs who subsequently was hired by Clinton at the State Department, later chimed in, telling her “terrific job” and “GREAT line on Columbian [sic] workers!!!!!”'''

Hillary Clinton Pushes Colombia Free Trade Agreement In Latest Email Dump

Robert Reich, who worked in the Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter administrations and was Secretary of Labor under Bill Clinton, endorsed Bernie Sanders on Twitter Friday evening.

The economist and author has written in support of Sanders and his economic plans, calling Hillary Clinton's proposals too modest, but previously stopped short of officially endorsing Sanders.

In a statement posted to Facebook, Reich wrote: "I have the deepest respect and admiration for Hillary Clinton, and if she wins the Democratic primary I’ll work my heart out to help her become president. But I believe Bernie Sanders is the agent of change this nation so desperately needs."

Former secretary of labor endorses Sanders

edited 26th Feb '16 10:50:17 PM by SolipsistOwl

Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#113415: Feb 26th 2016 at 10:48:25 PM

[up]which is part of what I dislike about Trump.

Leviticus 19:34
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#113416: Feb 27th 2016 at 12:37:41 AM

If people want predictions why not look at what Nate Silver is putting out? He has a pretty good record from last time.

edited 27th Feb '16 12:38:00 AM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Luminosity Since: Jun, 2012 Relationship Status: Lovey-Dovey
#113417: Feb 27th 2016 at 3:53:54 AM

Hillary Clinton ‘Super Predators’ Video: Black Lives Matter Activists Revives Democrat's Race Controversy

Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination has parked itself in South Carolina, where black voters and surrogates have turned out in droves ahead of the state’s Saturday primary. But a single Black Lives Matter protester this week attempted to cast doubts over the former secretary of state's authenticity on racial justice issues in a videotaped faceoff that was going viral Friday.

Ashley Williams, a 23-year-old activist who is African-American and identifies as queer, confronted Clinton in Charleston, South Carolina, on policies she supported as first lady. Those policies, including a 1994 crime bill that worsened the disproportionate incarceration rate among African-Americans, were the Clintons’ prescription for the nation’s high rates of crime and violence.

Videos are in the link.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#113418: Feb 27th 2016 at 5:04:12 AM

I'll admit it freely: I am less interested in kool-aid from 22 years ago and more of what Clinton's current plans for reducing/fixing the ever present race relations and racial inequality problems are.

Also, if folks want to panic about something, the possibility that Hillary's emails contain actually incriminating stuff would be the first place to start.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
darksidevoid Anti-Gnosis Weapon from The Frontiers (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Robosexual
Anti-Gnosis Weapon
#113419: Feb 27th 2016 at 5:08:52 AM

AFL-CIO will withhold endorsement until after the primary

Wait, this is from the 17th. Is this old news to the thread? If so, I missed it.

edited 27th Feb '16 5:10:02 AM by darksidevoid

GM: AGOG S4 & F/WC RP; Co-GM: TABA, SOTR, UUA RP; Sub-GM: TTS RP. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire.
ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#113420: Feb 27th 2016 at 6:10:32 AM

[up][up]

It's a fair point to bring up, though, if Hillary had previously used "dog-whistle" style language when talking about black people and crime - that type of perspective generally doesn't change so much as get hidden. Alternatively, she used such language to win support, which proves Sanders' point regarding her duplicity - another Morton's Fork regarding her election prospects.

The emails back up the latter notion, where she'll say some things publicly to win support, then do a complete 180 in private.

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
majoraoftime (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#113421: Feb 27th 2016 at 8:09:46 AM

Crazy that Trump is a more progressive candidate than not only the other Republican candidates, but also Clinton. He could utterly demolish her in Ohio and Wisconsin by telling the truth about 'free trade.'

a) Trump has a ton of white supremacists voting for him, dude. How many do you think are voting for Clinton? Let's not be silly, here.

b) The truth about free trade? That the majority of economists think it's overall beneficial? I don't think that would help Trump's case.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#113422: Feb 27th 2016 at 8:15:25 AM

A lot of people think free trade kills jobs, though. A sufficient amount of people to swing an election, in fact.

Plus, a lot of "free trade" deals come with lots of strings attached (e.g the "investor tribunals" in TPP and TTIP) that do not have such a defense.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#113423: Feb 27th 2016 at 8:23:26 AM

Trump's platforms include renegotiating NAFTA and trade deals, preserving Medicare and Social Security, taxing hedge funds, and increasing the minimum wage.

The Republican donor establishment hates Trump for not being extreme *enough.* These are actually very moderate positions that would suit Trump well in the general election as the GOP nominee.

Considering Clinton has personally lied and lobbied for 'free trade' deals while So S, I see no reason why Trump couldn't make gains by hammering her on that in blue-collar, former manufacturing states.

edited 27th Feb '16 8:32:37 AM by SolipsistOwl

darksidevoid Anti-Gnosis Weapon from The Frontiers (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Robosexual
Anti-Gnosis Weapon
#113424: Feb 27th 2016 at 8:40:29 AM

[up]Worth noting that "former manufacturing states" are a majority of the battleground states that will actually decide the General.

GM: AGOG S4 & F/WC RP; Co-GM: TABA, SOTR, UUA RP; Sub-GM: TTS RP. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire.
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#113425: Feb 27th 2016 at 8:54:10 AM

Not really? It's only Ohio where the GOP has a chance out of the old rust belt. Pennsylvania is the Republicans' white whale, as much as appalachia and our strong core of white blue collar workers makes us look red, we were the only state in the union to flip the governor from R to D in 2014 and we flipped our state supreme court from R to D in 2015 too.

Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and New Mexico would be the other big battlegrounds, and most of those are sunbelt-type states with different profiles.

And the problem with Trump trying to rally working-class whites in these states is going to be near-lockstep opposition from blacks and hispanics. Even if Trump does make inroads with elusive "missing white voters," it's going to be hard to win these states with even less hispanic support than the GOP has gotten before.


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