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Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#110576: Feb 1st 2016 at 7:57:06 PM

Am I seeing those numbers correctly, and less than 1,300 Democrat voters caucused in Iowa? #sadforamerica #deathofdemocracy

edited 1st Feb '16 7:58:01 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#110577: Feb 1st 2016 at 7:57:47 PM

I dunno if thats bad for the Dems. Cruz is hated enough in his own party, that if he gets the nod and Hil is the opponent, they'll cross party lines. If it's sanders, they'll stay home instead.

I for one (as much as I hate the guy and everything he stands for) like that Cruz one. It stops Trump from getting coronated, NH becomes a madhouse that matters, and Rubio will make a full scale push in SC. Trump takes Nevada.

Cruz has no steam. He just has Iowa. He's this cycle's Huckabee.

edited 1st Feb '16 7:59:48 PM by FFShinra

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#110578: Feb 1st 2016 at 7:58:33 PM

On the other hand, a lot of Trump supporters might go for Sanders when they would not go for Clinton.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
LinkToTheFuture A real bad hombre from somewhere completely different Since: Apr, 2015 Relationship Status: What's love got to do with it?
A real bad hombre
#110579: Feb 1st 2016 at 7:59:20 PM

Cruz vs. Trump, eh? Why can't they both lose?

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." -Thomas Edison
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#110580: Feb 1st 2016 at 7:59:21 PM

I think that's Precints, Fiighter.

Also remember, threat of snow storm.

AdricDePsycho Rock on, Gold Dust Woman from Never Going Back Again Since: Oct, 2014 Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
Rock on, Gold Dust Woman
#110581: Feb 1st 2016 at 7:59:50 PM

So is it official that Cruz beat Trump?

Have you any dreams you'd like to sell?
Artificius from about a foot and a half away from a monitor. Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Norwegian Wood
#110582: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:00:09 PM

[up]x4 Anecdotally, I can speak to that. Guy I know from the south literally said "Eh, I could go for either one."

edited 1st Feb '16 8:00:34 PM by Artificius

"I have no fear, for fear is the little death that kills me over and over. Without fear, I die but once."
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#110583: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:00:10 PM

[up][up]Yep.

edited 1st Feb '16 8:00:23 PM by FFShinra

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#110584: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:01:50 PM

Trump is only a single point ahead of Rubio, so it's theoretically possible for him to fall to third. Either way Cruz has first and Trump gave a short speech, no explosion sadly.

edited 1st Feb '16 8:02:32 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Cronosonic (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#110585: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:05:27 PM

So Hillary won two delegates by a fucking coin flip.

The caucus system is fucking disgraceful. At least Sanders and Hillary are neck and neck, so Iowa means very little now.

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#110586: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:08:44 PM

So Clinton officially won then?

Oh really when?
Eschaton Since: Jul, 2010
#110587: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:10:07 PM

[up][up]This is clearly a sign that Clinton is God's favored candidate.tongue

Artificius from about a foot and a half away from a monitor. Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Norwegian Wood
#110588: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:10:08 PM

[up][up]Not quite yet. 9% of the precincts are unreported, and she leads Sanders by .2%

[down]Boiling seas, green fire, dead earth, and the arrival of the Saoshyant to duel the newly appointed representative of Ahriman.

edited 1st Feb '16 8:12:31 PM by Artificius

"I have no fear, for fear is the little death that kills me over and over. Without fear, I die but once."
ILoveDogs Since: May, 2010
#110589: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:10:21 PM

Hypothetically, what would happen if Cruz got the nomination?

TotemicHero No longer a forum herald from the next level Since: Dec, 2009
No longer a forum herald
#110590: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:10:25 PM

Not yet. Three delegate spots are undeclared, and Sanders still leads by one.

In order for her to actually WIN, she has to claim all three. If she claims two, it's a tie. If Sanders claims two or three, he wins.

Expergiscēre cras, medior quam hodie. (Awaken tomorrow, better than today.)
AdricDePsycho Rock on, Gold Dust Woman from Never Going Back Again Since: Oct, 2014 Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
Rock on, Gold Dust Woman
#110591: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:12:13 PM

I'm pretty sure that if Cruz got the nomination, the Republican party would all commit sepuku for stooping that low.

Have you any dreams you'd like to sell?
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#110592: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:12:55 PM

[up]X7 Coin flips aren't a caucus thing, that's how ties are broken, I once almost saw a local authority council seat come down to a coin flip, I think we've had actual parliamentary elections go to a coin flip a fe times.

[up]X3 Democrat in the White House.

edited 1st Feb '16 8:13:59 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
ILoveDogs Since: May, 2010
#110593: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:13:58 PM

[up][up] People say that, but I'm really not sure how that's going to end up happening. I feel like they'll just grit their teeth and fuck up the country along with him. They can't hate him that much.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#110594: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:15:20 PM

They hate him enough to consider backing a facist, outsider who insults them for being tourtured and doxs them over him, they realy do hate him.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
AdricDePsycho Rock on, Gold Dust Woman from Never Going Back Again Since: Oct, 2014 Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
Rock on, Gold Dust Woman
#110595: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:15:24 PM

Considering Cruz helped to shut down the government when he was in Congress, the Republican party would be pretty scared to get him involved as their candidate.

Have you any dreams you'd like to sell?
Demonic_Braeburn Yankee Doodle Dandy from Defective California Since: Jan, 2016
Yankee Doodle Dandy
#110596: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:17:28 PM

The GOP delegates have been assigned!

Ted Cruz - 8

The Trump - 7

Marco Rubio - 6

Ben Carson - 2

Rand Paul - 1

EVERYONE ELSE GETS NOTHING!

Any group who acts like morons ironically will eventually find itself swamped by morons who think themselves to be in good company.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#110597: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:17:45 PM

It's not just that, Cruz isn't just bad electorally, he's bad personally, like they can't even get on with him on a personal level.

Oh and just by the by, Rand Paul has confirmed that he's sticking around at least for now.

[nja]

edited 1st Feb '16 8:18:16 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#110598: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:19:47 PM

Yeah. He actually did better than Christie and Santorum, so I'd expect them to drop soon as well.

Christie will stay in at least until NH. That's partly out of hope that a moderate will play better there, partly due to a small surge he had there a few weeks ago before starting to drop in the polls again, and partly in the hope that someone will pledge him a cabinet seat or such. This goes double since it's only about a week away, and Christie has spent a ridiculous amount of time in NH during this primary. (As in about 100 separate town hall appearances, public Q&A sessions, speeches, etc.)

Looking over the numbers from CNN on the vote I'm a little surprised by how well Rand Paul did. Back before Trump entered the race I thought Paul would have a small but dedicated slice of the electorate, but I thought he was so totally overshadowed and irrelevant throughout much of the primary that I thought he'd wind up completely out the picture, but he held his own decently well and seems like he'll be holding onto 5th place.

Carson did better than he had any right to due to the evangelical population, but he's just about certain to be a non-factor from here on out. I do wonder what percentage of those votes, (I think a majority) would have gone to Cruz without Carson being present.

Rubio almost equaling Trump in votes and getting as many delegates as he did is a win for his campaign, he knew he wasn't the favorite in Iowa but performed better than expected. I don't think his strategy of "sit back and wait until everyone else has battered themselves to bits and then swoop in" is going to work in the long run, but we'll see. If the Donald gets frustrated enough to go independent while the primary is still on and it comes down to Rubio vs Cruz, he may have a chance of pulling it off.

Anyone want to guess who will be next to fall? Santorum is obvious, but he's also a non-factor at this point. I'm guessing that we'll see a big culling after New Hampshire, with Kasich, Christie, and Fiorina all dropping out. By that point Carson is likely to be heading out the door. I think Bush may stick around out of sheer obstinance and an inability to read the writing on the wall, unless his donors leave him and throw their efforts behind someone else. (Likely Rubio.)

edited 1st Feb '16 8:24:01 PM by TheWanderer

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
storyyeller More like giant cherries from Appleloosa Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: RelationshipOutOfBoundsException: 1
More like giant cherries
#110599: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:20:31 PM

From what I've heard, the Republican party has been running attack ads against Cruz in Iowa. Not Trump, but Cruz. They must really hate him.

On the Democrat side, it really doesn't matter who gets more delegates. The fact that it's even close means Sanders has no hope nationally since Iowa has favorable demographics for him.

edited 1st Feb '16 8:20:45 PM by storyyeller

Blind Final Fantasy 6 Let's Play
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#110600: Feb 1st 2016 at 8:23:52 PM

Kasich is doing pretty decent in NH, so I wouldn't be so sure. Christie is done though, after that. Gilmore will finally go away, probably with Fiorina.

Rand will stick out until Kentucky. Then he flees.


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