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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
A political party continues and grows through younger members.
Good thing, then, that Sanders leads among millennial voters aged 17-35.
edited 30th Jan '16 3:09:21 PM by SolipsistOwl
Sure and if Sanders wants to wait 20-40 years for that generation to become the majority I'm sure he could pull of his plan, but that's not much good now while they're still outnumbered by older voters.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranAgreed Millennial *voters* are outnumbered by older voters, but Obama won partly based off new young voters in '08, and poll trends indicate Sanders might as well.
If Sanders can inspire enough young people to become new voters, that will outweigh established/older voters. Young people outnumber older. This is the first American election where that is the case.
edited 30th Jan '16 3:13:28 PM by SolipsistOwl
Obama won a majority nation wide and in several states, but he didn't win a majority in deep south gerrymandered to shit districts.
And youth voters outnumbering older voters nationwide doesn't matter, they'd have to outnumber older voters in the specific heavily gerrymandered districts that Sanders would need to win for this plan.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranThe Des Moines Register has released their final pre-Iowa caucus poll, showing Clinton leading Sanders 45% (+3) to 42% (+2).
The DMR receives its polling from Ann Selzer, the most accurate pollster in politics. She was the only person who predicted Clinton's defeat in '08.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/
However, Sanders wins a majority of those under 35, first-time caucusgoers and political independents.
30% of Democrat Iowans are undecided—they can vote either way come caucus
68% of Democrat Iowans would not mind a socialist president
edited 30th Jan '16 4:46:19 PM by SolipsistOwl
68% of Iowans or Iowan Democrats?
The Republicans seem to be bracing for a Trump win in Iowa. http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/29/politics/iowa-caucuses-donald-trump-ted-cruz-marco-rubio-jeb-bush/index.html
Though its important to remember that the early GOP primaries are giving out convention delegates proportionately; so there is still a chance for some of the candidates to keep up and build some momentum even if Trump/Cruz dominate the early race.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.Basically it notes that Trump and Sanders are two sides of the same anti-Neoliberal/anti-Market Liberalism coin. The two both represent the frustration of Americans against the political class' consensus towards free market capitalism. The interesting thing it notes is during the original golden age of free market capitalism (The 1870s to World War 1), it ended in two ways for countries: Fascism (much of Europe) or Reform (The U.S.), with much of the globalization brought about by imperialism falling apart for a time, with a bias towards protectionism/nativism.
It doesn't matter who wins if it's a member of the neoliberal establishment, the resentment is going to get worse until the bubble pops.
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On the other hand the race and social policies of the GOP have put them into a demographic trap that they'll never escape unless they drastically reform their rhetoric and now. Which isn't going to happen.
So this resentment will likely result in a left-wing (by US standards) Democrat getting into power eventually. And being hamstrung by a Republican controlled House.
edited 30th Jan '16 4:49:20 PM by Rationalinsanity
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.Depends what kind of Republicans, would they be Tea Baggers, Etablishment types, Trump-ites?
edited 30th Jan '16 5:46:59 PM by PotatoesRock
So with the Iowa caucuses only two days away, how do you think the primaries are gonna go and when will people drop out?
I'm thinking that Trump will win Iowa with Cruz in second, and Bernie will win Iowa by a very close margin with Hillary in second. After this, O'Malley drops out for the Democrats, leaving it a two-person race. On the Republican side of things, I think Huckabee and Santorum realize they have no shot and drop out, alongside Gilmore, Carson, and Fiorina.
In New Hampshire, Bernie wins in a landslide. Trump also handily wins New Hampshire, and establishment picks Rubio, Kasich, Bush, and Christie hope to take second so that the GOP establishment will put all their support behind them. Rubio is able to take second and the other three drop out. Paul also reluctantly drops out.
In Nevada (where the GOP has it take place before South Carolina) Rubio is able to win among the establishment and conservative Hispanics and Trump is blown out. In South Carolina however Trump rebounds and wins by a fair margin, and scores a lot of victories on Super Tuesday. Cruz, with his momentum largely eliminated, drops out.
On the Democratic side of things, Hillary narrowly wins South Carolina, but Bernie is able to win Nevada. Although Hillary wins most states on Super Tuesday, Bernie will have picked up enough delegates to compete with Hillary in the following months.
This is unlike the GOP race where with his momentum at a high-point, Trump is declared the presumptive nominee by April, much to the dismay of the establishment.
What do you guys think will happen?
What I hope for is for Hillary and Rubio to get the nominations from their respective parties. I could settle for Cruz-Hillary.
Really, I just desperately hope for anything but a Trump-Sanders race. Anything but That!
edited 30th Jan '16 6:12:45 PM by Protagonist506
Leviticus 19:34Trump is to take 28%, Cruz 23% and Rubio 15%. Republican Primaries are proportional, so Trump won't be winner taking all.
Also I'm hearing Clinton's trying to lock in as many of the Super Delegates as she can to try and block Sanders even if he should start taking states against her.
edited 30th Jan '16 6:22:10 PM by PotatoesRock
@Owl "“I will say very clearly, no country can accept rockets fired indiscriminately at citizens. And so, we’ve been very clear that Israel has the right to defend itself against what I consider to be inexcusable attacks from Hamas.”"
That's not insulting muslims. That's a condemnation of rocket attacks on Israel. The gulf between those two things is a wide one.
I'm baaaaaaack![]()
I think the oddballs would be more likely to pick Bernie, maybe because of a feeling that it would make more of a difference to support an underdog rather than someone who's already a frontrunner, although that status has become more and more in doubt.
I figured he'd be doing better in Nevada so I predicted he'd win there, considering his campaign has grown in notoriety since last year.
edited 30th Jan '16 6:39:34 PM by Shawnsummer7
It's not Islamophobic to criticize groups like Hamas, because they don't represent Islam as a whole. It's only Islamophobic when you act like they do.
Leviticus 19:34I'm hoping for Clinton vs Cruz. Rubio might actually stand a chance of getting elected to office. Plus I want to see that fucker be eviscerated in front of the entire nation for shutting down the government, and I still don't trust Bernie on foreign policy, and his economic policy is increasingly not adding up either.
The New York Times endorses Clinton and Kasich
No surprise their, the entire mainstream Democrat media is pulling for Clinton, and that seems to include Stewart and his disciples. And their is of course CNN's old nickname of Clinton News Network.
edited 30th Jan '16 8:57:50 PM by JackOLantern1337
I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.Sanders can win Iowa, but it depends on a lot of factors. I think there's two main ones:
1.) High voter turnout from independents and first-time caucus-goers.
2.) O'Malley does not reach the minimum viability threshold to remain viable, forcing his supporters to pick either Clinton or Sanders.
—Roughly 60% of O'Malley's supporters name Sanders as their second choice, so if they stay to caucus for him that can be as much as a 5% boost.
edited 30th Jan '16 9:23:17 PM by SolipsistOwl
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That's why I want Rubio in office-he's the guy I want to win.
But really, as long as we don't elect Trump or Sanders (especially the former), I think we'll be fine.
Leviticus 19:34

Sept that primary voters in Iowa, Sanders will need Republican voters in Nebraska to try and pull the House, he might manage it (protectionism woudl do him good here), but appeal amongst young left-wiog voters is no help in the areas that are dominated by old conservative voters.
Edit to edit: Yeah Vermont is nice, but again, we're not talking about Vermont, we're talking about Deep South Republican seats that have been gerrymandered, even a state-wide majority isn't going to win those places.
edited 30th Jan '16 3:06:40 PM by Silasw
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran