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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#110226: Jan 30th 2016 at 3:05:04 PM

Sept that primary voters in Iowa, Sanders will need Republican voters in Nebraska to try and pull the House, he might manage it (protectionism woudl do him good here), but appeal amongst young left-wiog voters is no help in the areas that are dominated by old conservative voters.

Edit to edit: Yeah Vermont is nice, but again, we're not talking about Vermont, we're talking about Deep South Republican seats that have been gerrymandered, even a state-wide majority isn't going to win those places.

edited 30th Jan '16 3:06:40 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#110227: Jan 30th 2016 at 3:08:53 PM

A political party continues and grows through younger members.

Good thing, then, that Sanders leads among millennial voters aged 17-35.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/bernie-sanders-millennials-iowa-hillary-clinton/index.html?sr=twCNN012616bernie-sanders-millennials-iowa-hillary-clinton0654PMStoryLink&linkId=20688567

edited 30th Jan '16 3:09:21 PM by SolipsistOwl

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#110228: Jan 30th 2016 at 3:11:07 PM

Sure and if Sanders wants to wait 20-40 years for that generation to become the majority I'm sure he could pull of his plan, but that's not much good now while they're still outnumbered by older voters.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#110229: Jan 30th 2016 at 3:13:06 PM

Agreed Millennial *voters* are outnumbered by older voters, but Obama won partly based off new young voters in '08, and poll trends indicate Sanders might as well.

If Sanders can inspire enough young people to become new voters, that will outweigh established/older voters. Young people outnumber older. This is the first American election where that is the case.

edited 30th Jan '16 3:13:28 PM by SolipsistOwl

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#110230: Jan 30th 2016 at 3:15:59 PM

Obama won a majority nation wide and in several states, but he didn't win a majority in deep south gerrymandered to shit districts.

And youth voters outnumbering older voters nationwide doesn't matter, they'd have to outnumber older voters in the specific heavily gerrymandered districts that Sanders would need to win for this plan.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#110231: Jan 30th 2016 at 3:20:53 PM

[up]Obama didn't even campaign in most of the South—which might explain why he lost there.

Sanders is—and heavily—so perhaps his numbers might be different?

edited 30th Jan '16 3:21:40 PM by SolipsistOwl

Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#110232: Jan 30th 2016 at 3:29:17 PM

Obama lost the south because it's been a Republican stronghold for decades. No amount of campaigning would have won it for him. The fact that he's a black man only made it harder.

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#110233: Jan 30th 2016 at 3:32:25 PM

Granted, there are demographic trends that will make it more and more purple. GOP will win it this time and perhaps even next, but it will be by smaller margins unless they start to try harder down here. I know plenty of Republicans here who are tired of being taken for granted.

SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#110234: Jan 30th 2016 at 3:49:24 PM

The Des Moines Register has released their final pre-Iowa caucus poll, showing Clinton leading Sanders 45% (+3) to 42% (+2).

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/clinton-keeps-slim-edge-over-sanders-latest-iowa-poll/79537020/

The DMR receives its polling from Ann Selzer, the most accurate pollster in politics. She was the only person who predicted Clinton's defeat in '08.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/

However, Sanders wins a majority of those under 35, first-time caucusgoers and political independents.

30% of Democrat Iowans are undecided—they can vote either way come caucus

68% of Democrat Iowans would not mind a socialist president

edited 30th Jan '16 4:46:19 PM by SolipsistOwl

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#110235: Jan 30th 2016 at 4:15:44 PM

68% of Iowans or Iowan Democrats?

The Republicans seem to be bracing for a Trump win in Iowa. http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/29/politics/iowa-caucuses-donald-trump-ted-cruz-marco-rubio-jeb-bush/index.html

Though its important to remember that the early GOP primaries are giving out convention delegates proportionately; so there is still a chance for some of the candidates to keep up and build some momentum even if Trump/Cruz dominate the early race.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#110236: Jan 30th 2016 at 4:40:07 PM

(Vox) "This election could be the birth of a Trump-Sanders constituency: It’s time for the Washington elite to wake up and listen to what these voters are responding to."

Basically it notes that Trump and Sanders are two sides of the same anti-Neoliberal/anti-Market Liberalism coin. The two both represent the frustration of Americans against the political class' consensus towards free market capitalism. The interesting thing it notes is during the original golden age of free market capitalism (The 1870s to World War 1), it ended in two ways for countries: Fascism (much of Europe) or Reform (The U.S.), with much of the globalization brought about by imperialism falling apart for a time, with a bias towards protectionism/nativism.

It doesn't matter who wins if it's a member of the neoliberal establishment, the resentment is going to get worse until the bubble pops.

SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#110237: Jan 30th 2016 at 4:46:49 PM

[up][up]Registered Iowa Democrats. Edited to specify.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#110238: Jan 30th 2016 at 4:48:50 PM

[up][up]On the other hand the race and social policies of the GOP have put them into a demographic trap that they'll never escape unless they drastically reform their rhetoric and now. Which isn't going to happen.

So this resentment will likely result in a left-wing (by US standards) Democrat getting into power eventually. And being hamstrung by a Republican controlled House.

edited 30th Jan '16 4:49:20 PM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#110239: Jan 30th 2016 at 5:24:52 PM

Depends what kind of Republicans, would they be Tea Baggers, Etablishment types, Trump-ites?

Sanders campaign says they're okay with debating Clinton in Flint, Michigan in March, if Clinton will debate Sanders in Brooklyn in April.

edited 30th Jan '16 5:46:59 PM by PotatoesRock

Shawnsummer7 Since: Jan, 2016 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
#110240: Jan 30th 2016 at 5:51:24 PM

So with the Iowa caucuses only two days away, how do you think the primaries are gonna go and when will people drop out?

I'm thinking that Trump will win Iowa with Cruz in second, and Bernie will win Iowa by a very close margin with Hillary in second. After this, O'Malley drops out for the Democrats, leaving it a two-person race. On the Republican side of things, I think Huckabee and Santorum realize they have no shot and drop out, alongside Gilmore, Carson, and Fiorina.

In New Hampshire, Bernie wins in a landslide. Trump also handily wins New Hampshire, and establishment picks Rubio, Kasich, Bush, and Christie hope to take second so that the GOP establishment will put all their support behind them. Rubio is able to take second and the other three drop out. Paul also reluctantly drops out.

In Nevada (where the GOP has it take place before South Carolina) Rubio is able to win among the establishment and conservative Hispanics and Trump is blown out. In South Carolina however Trump rebounds and wins by a fair margin, and scores a lot of victories on Super Tuesday. Cruz, with his momentum largely eliminated, drops out.

On the Democratic side of things, Hillary narrowly wins South Carolina, but Bernie is able to win Nevada. Although Hillary wins most states on Super Tuesday, Bernie will have picked up enough delegates to compete with Hillary in the following months.

This is unlike the GOP race where with his momentum at a high-point, Trump is declared the presumptive nominee by April, much to the dismay of the establishment.

What do you guys think will happen?

Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#110241: Jan 30th 2016 at 6:11:55 PM

What I hope for is for Hillary and Rubio to get the nominations from their respective parties. I could settle for Cruz-Hillary.

Really, I just desperately hope for anything but a Trump-Sanders race. Anything but That!

edited 30th Jan '16 6:12:45 PM by Protagonist506

Leviticus 19:34
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#110242: Jan 30th 2016 at 6:19:24 PM

Ann Selzer, Iowa's most respected pollster (by both parties), says the polls look to favor Hillary by a 3 point margin. But I think Owl noted this doesn't account for the oddballs who could go either way.

Trump is to take 28%, Cruz 23% and Rubio 15%. Republican Primaries are proportional, so Trump won't be winner taking all.

Also I'm hearing Clinton's trying to lock in as many of the Super Delegates as she can to try and block Sanders even if he should start taking states against her.

Bernie is able to win Nevada
Clinton's team and allies, interestingly enough, are paranoid about him in Nevada. There's a lot of squawking about scandals involving misuse of Union Logos and Pins to try and ratfuck Sanders' union support there.

edited 30th Jan '16 6:22:10 PM by PotatoesRock

Joesolo Indiana Solo Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
Indiana Solo
#110243: Jan 30th 2016 at 6:30:55 PM

@Owl "“I will say very clearly, no country can accept rockets fired indiscriminately at citizens. And so, we’ve been very clear that Israel has the right to defend itself against what I consider to be inexcusable attacks from Hamas.”"

That's not insulting muslims. That's a condemnation of rocket attacks on Israel. The gulf between those two things is a wide one.

I'm baaaaaaack
Shawnsummer7 Since: Jan, 2016 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
#110244: Jan 30th 2016 at 6:37:46 PM

[up][up]I think the oddballs would be more likely to pick Bernie, maybe because of a feeling that it would make more of a difference to support an underdog rather than someone who's already a frontrunner, although that status has become more and more in doubt.

I figured he'd be doing better in Nevada so I predicted he'd win there, considering his campaign has grown in notoriety since last year.

edited 30th Jan '16 6:39:34 PM by Shawnsummer7

Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#110245: Jan 30th 2016 at 6:42:03 PM

It's not Islamophobic to criticize groups like Hamas, because they don't represent Islam as a whole. It's only Islamophobic when you act like they do.

Leviticus 19:34
JackOLantern1337 Shameful Display from The Most Miserable Province in the Russian Empir Since: Aug, 2014 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
Shameful Display
#110246: Jan 30th 2016 at 8:54:53 PM

I'm hoping for Clinton vs Cruz. Rubio might actually stand a chance of getting elected to office. Plus I want to see that fucker be eviscerated in front of the entire nation for shutting down the government, and I still don't trust Bernie on foreign policy, and his economic policy is increasingly not adding up either.

The New York Times endorses Clinton and Kasich No surprise their, the entire mainstream Democrat media is pulling for Clinton, and that seems to include Stewart and his disciples. And their is of course CNN's old nickname of Clinton News Network.

edited 30th Jan '16 8:57:50 PM by JackOLantern1337

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.
SolipsistOwl Since: Jan, 2016
#110247: Jan 30th 2016 at 9:23:02 PM

Sanders can win Iowa, but it depends on a lot of factors. I think there's two main ones:

1.) High voter turnout from independents and first-time caucus-goers.

2.) O'Malley does not reach the minimum viability threshold to remain viable, forcing his supporters to pick either Clinton or Sanders.

—Roughly 60% of O'Malley's supporters name Sanders as their second choice, so if they stay to caucus for him that can be as much as a 5% boost.

edited 30th Jan '16 9:23:17 PM by SolipsistOwl

Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#110248: Jan 30th 2016 at 9:28:36 PM

[up][up]That's why I want Rubio in office-he's the guy I want to win.

But really, as long as we don't elect Trump or Sanders (especially the former), I think we'll be fine.

Leviticus 19:34
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#110249: Jan 30th 2016 at 9:30:49 PM

Rubio is a Tea Party nutter, he'd sink the nation's economy overnight.

With Trump we'd just get a foreign relations disaster and more lynchings but at least we'd still exist before 2016 ended.

Oh really when?
AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#110250: Jan 30th 2016 at 9:41:17 PM

I have a hard time believing O'Malley has enough supporters to tip the scales either way. It's functionally been a two person race the entire time.


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