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Greenmantle V from Greater Wessex, Britannia Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: Hiding
V
#107801: Dec 31st 2015 at 8:08:51 AM

@ Fighteer: Maybe Rubio (now) doesn't really want to be elected?

edited 31st Dec '15 8:09:11 AM by Greenmantle

Keep Rolling On
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#107802: Dec 31st 2015 at 8:11:25 AM

It is striking that we are in a political environment that is so toxic that no responsible, thoughtful Republican should want to run for office on a Republican ticket.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#107803: Dec 31st 2015 at 8:57:57 AM

At this point, Republcians should just abandon the presidency and focus entirely on winning downticket races.

Because yaaay gridlock.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#107804: Dec 31st 2015 at 9:58:14 AM

Ben Carson's campaign manager and communications director have resigned. Carson has been raising substantial amounts of money although he's fallen way back in the polls. Is this a sign that we're marching to the end of it?

We've always held that he's not a serious candidate, but the media hasn't gotten the message.

edited 31st Dec '15 10:14:36 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#107805: Dec 31st 2015 at 10:24:43 AM

Rubio just doesn't seem to want to work. He holds office and does record little with it.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#107806: Dec 31st 2015 at 10:27:03 AM

The counterclaim is that Obama did the same, and that generally, Presidential candidates who hold legislative office avoid major votes simply to prevent the controversy attached to them from rebounding on their campaigns. It sounds hypocritical but I don't want to pass definitive judgment. It is undoubtedly the case that Rubio has seemingly little ground game, relying on ads over offices.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Iaculus Pronounced YAK-you-luss from England Since: May, 2010
Pronounced YAK-you-luss
#107807: Dec 31st 2015 at 10:46:51 AM

Of course, 'serious candidate' is a very slippery term in this Republican primary... tongue

What's precedent ever done for us?
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#107808: Dec 31st 2015 at 12:56:13 PM

Rubio is a flash in the pan like Carson. Cruz is eating buddy boy's lunch, and it is those two who share the same "lane".

Good to see the fall of Carson.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#107809: Dec 31st 2015 at 9:18:18 PM

[up]So is Jeb the RNC's last hope?

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
ILoveDogs Since: May, 2010
#107810: Dec 31st 2015 at 9:21:50 PM

Hardly. Jeb! has increasingly become a non-entity.

PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#107811: Dec 31st 2015 at 9:22:54 PM

Rubio was assumed to be the last hope since Jeb's already tanking in terms of polling.

The problem is the lion share of polling potential voters goes to El Hairpiece (Trump) and The Canadian Cuban (Cruz).

Rubio is a DISTANT third.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#107812: Jan 1st 2016 at 2:25:18 AM

Thing is we're looking at a lot more candidates, we've still got 12-14 (some polls had guys who have now dropped out), while comparatively for 2012 there were only 6-7 candidates at this point. So let's compare the 7 2012 candidates to the top 7 2016 candidates, using the You Gov polls for December.

2012: Santorum (4%), Perry (5%), Huntsmen (6%), Bachmann (8%), Paul (13%), Romney (21%), Gingrich (27%), Other (1%), Unknown Remainder (15%).

2016: Paul/Christie/Fiorina (3%), Bush (5%), Carson (7%), Rubio/Cruz (16%), Trump (37%), Other (6% plus three 0%s that probably add up to something), No Preference (3%).

So Trump does defiantly have a bigger lead then Gingrich did over Romney, however it's still not enough if the race narrows to three candidates eventually, like it did in 2012. In that case it will be Trump, an establishment candidate and Paul. It comes down I think to if Trump can pick up the votes of others as they drop out, if everyone falls in behind Rubio of Cruz then Trump will loose, but if Trump can grab the Carson vote and a little bit elsewhere it's a toss up.

Edit: State wide polls are interesting. Trump is neck and neck with Cruz in Iowa (50-70% of the vote split evenly between them) Rubio is third (10-15%) but there's also a 5% margin of error and still plenty of votes amongst the other candidates that could go in any direction.

Edit 2: New Hampshire is pretty interesting to. The 'moderate' candidates are all polling strong (well strong for this race), if Rubio, Kasich, Bush and Christie roll their votes together they've got somewhere in the realm of 37-47% of the vote, but they'd have to all roll behind one candidate, Trump is seeing 21-32%, so if two of them stay they could still end up with someone winning out against Trump.

Thing is both Iowa and New Hampshire are proportional with their votes. It's not until South Carolina that we get a winner takes all state.

Carson dropping out and sending his voters to Trump could pull Trump into a solid lead in a few states however, in particular South Carolina.

It's gonna come down to who drops when, in 2012 it was down to 4 candidates by South Carolina, with Romney, Gingrich, Santorum and Paul. If we end up with a 4 stack of Trump, [generic RNC puppet], Paul and Carson then the RNC should win, but that requires either Cruz or Rubio to drop. If they both stay and it's a 5 stack then who knows.

Still my prediction is that by South Carolina we'll have either a 5 or 4 stack, possibly after a embarrassing split vote in New Hamsphire causes the 'moderates' to all fall in behind one candidate.

edited 1st Jan '16 3:05:02 AM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Iaculus Pronounced YAK-you-luss from England Since: May, 2010
Pronounced YAK-you-luss
#107813: Jan 1st 2016 at 3:11:32 AM

I don't think we can really call Cruz an 'establishment candidate'. He's about as far-right as the congressional Republican Party goes (with Trump here defined as a very welcome outsider who said what a lot of Republican voters wanted), and to know him is reportedly to loathe him.

What's precedent ever done for us?
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#107814: Jan 1st 2016 at 4:04:05 AM

Thing is, if Cruz is that pig headed, the 'moderates' may have to fall in behind him. A three way race between Cruz, Trump and a 'moderate' could give it to Trump, and getting Cruz to drop out is going to be hard if he's that power hungry, especially as he's liable to do well on Super Tuesday with Texas being there.

The more moderate wings of the Republican Party aren't going to get heard after New Hampshire, Super Tuesday is going to be dominated by deep red states. The larger more moderate areas like Calafornia, New York, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania aren't until later on. If there's a serious three way race even after Super Tuesday everything is gonna go to hell.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Achaemenid HGW XX/7 from Ruschestraße 103, Haus 1 Since: Dec, 2011 Relationship Status: Giving love a bad name
HGW XX/7
#107815: Jan 1st 2016 at 4:32:57 AM

The Republican Establishment will not back Cruz unless the only alternative is Trump 2016.

edited 1st Jan '16 4:41:30 AM by Achaemenid

Schild und Schwert der Partei
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#107816: Jan 1st 2016 at 4:35:13 AM

Which I'm thinking it might be. Still time will tell.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#107817: Jan 1st 2016 at 7:51:21 AM

Well, this is interesting. A new Wall Street Journal article, sadly behind a login wall, says that U.S. intelligence intercepted information indicating that Benamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, conspired with and possibly bribed Republican Congressmen to send that infamous letter last year that attempted to undermine Obama's nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Democratic opinion rags are screaming "treason", but I have to wonder if this isn't pretty close to that.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Joesolo Indiana Solo Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
Indiana Solo
#107818: Jan 1st 2016 at 8:16:38 AM

Given the aim was to harm Iran rather than the US, along with undermining the President, I'd say it's close but not quite the Oxford definition, especially since they don't technically owe loyalty to the president, and certainly don't claim to.

The US legal definition is as follows

"Whoever, owing allegiance to the United States, levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere, is guilty of treason..."

To make a legal treason claim you'd need to argue Israel's an enemy.

In more informal use, "[treason can be used] against officials in power who are perceived as failing to act in the best interest of their constituents.", which certainly fits but wouldn't be possible to prosecute.

I'm baaaaaaack
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#107819: Jan 1st 2016 at 8:23:44 AM

The aim was to undermine the sitting President's executive authority, and it's also pretty clear that Israel is not acting in the U.S.' interests. But taking bribes from foreign officials is a prima facie felony regardless of motive.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Greenmantle V from Greater Wessex, Britannia Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: Hiding
V
#107820: Jan 1st 2016 at 8:28:15 AM

[up] Israel, like everyone else, is acting in their own (perceived) interests.

[down] USSR? The Israelis certainly weren't pro-Soviet pre-1991.

edited 1st Jan '16 8:34:27 AM by Greenmantle

Keep Rolling On
JackOLantern1337 Shameful Display from The Most Miserable Province in the Russian Empir Since: Aug, 2014 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
Shameful Display
#107821: Jan 1st 2016 at 8:30:08 AM

If that is treason, than the shenanigans Teddy Kennedy pulled with the Soviets are surely even worse. But this country has a very strict definition of treason for a reason.

[up] I think he was talking about the Senators. But yeah, the Israeli's are certainly not good allies. Even before this latest spat they went out of their way to maintain good relations with the USSR, including possibly trading our secrets to them.

Edit: And, if I recall, when we sell Military technology to them, the assumption is always they will sell the technology to other countries. And of course their is the USS Liberty, or rather Israel's instance that putting up a memorial to the survivors is somehow anti-Semitic.

Teddy Kennedy's attempt to make a deal with the Soviets.

edited 1st Jan '16 8:35:26 AM by JackOLantern1337

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.
carbon-mantis Collector Of Fine Oddities from Trumpland Since: Mar, 2010 Relationship Status: Married to my murderer
Collector Of Fine Oddities
#107822: Jan 1st 2016 at 9:52:28 AM

Whelp, both the Anti-Whistleblower and Voter ID laws in NC go into effect today. The former pretty much criminalizes any documentation of workplace conditions by an employee and allows the employer to sue them. This includes documentation of illegal activity and abuse committed by places such as nursing homes and factory farms.

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#107823: Jan 1st 2016 at 9:53:28 AM

Yeah, I need to get out of this state as fast as possible.

Oh really when?
Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#107824: Jan 1st 2016 at 10:00:33 AM

Wow... How in the hell did that get passed the courts let alone the fact that those are federal regulations? Ugh, boy this country always surprises me on its stupidity.

Clearly we need more guns so employees can just shoot their employers when they pull shit instead of reporting them.

edited 1st Jan '16 10:05:32 AM by Memers

carbon-mantis Collector Of Fine Oddities from Trumpland Since: Mar, 2010 Relationship Status: Married to my murderer
Collector Of Fine Oddities
#107825: Jan 1st 2016 at 10:11:52 AM

Mmm, it impacts a few cases that are rather close to home for me; there's a home for people with severe cognitive disabilities that's been under investigation for physical/emotional abuse and theft of care packages and financial stipends sent by family members of the patients. A lot of the evidence in it relies on statements and recordings made by employees. . .


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