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rikalous World's Cutest Direwolf from Upscale Mordor (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
World's Cutest Direwolf
#106576: Dec 11th 2015 at 6:55:22 PM

What is the dam water thing? It's the first I've heard of it.

storyyeller More like giant cherries from Appleloosa Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: RelationshipOutOfBoundsException: 1
More like giant cherries
#106577: Dec 11th 2015 at 7:10:10 PM

The hypothesis here is that the collective wisdom of many people is greater than the conclusions of a few. Those myriad people feed in the best information and analysis they can because their own financial rewards depend directly upon this. And it really is a case of “follow the money” because those who know the most, and are best able to process the available information, tend to bet the most.

Prediction markets are the composition of humans, and humans are often flawed. In fact, they are sometimes flawed in ways that are common among many people, meaning that it doesn't average out.

For example, one case of a major failure was how far the ceremonial first kick of the 2014 World Cup would travel where many people predicted 40+ meters, even though anyone who knew how ceremonial soccer kicks worked would have known that it would only go 1-3 meters before being stopped.

If you want a bigger scale example, just look at how often the stock market behaves irrationally. That's probably the biggest betting market of them all.

Blind Final Fantasy 6 Let's Play
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#106578: Dec 11th 2015 at 7:34:32 PM

If they mean the "damn" water thing, i think we're talking about Rubio stopping midway through his state of the union rebuttal to take a sip of water, in a manner which amused the internet commentariat and led to meme-creation.

Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#106579: Dec 11th 2015 at 7:36:47 PM

We're still talking about that? It was four years ago.

Xopher001 Since: Jul, 2012
#106580: Dec 11th 2015 at 7:57:59 PM

That... sounds like a normal thing to do??

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
rikalous World's Cutest Direwolf from Upscale Mordor (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
World's Cutest Direwolf
#106583: Dec 11th 2015 at 8:15:17 PM

If they mean the "damn" water thing, i think we're talking about Rubio stopping midway through his state of the union rebuttal to take a sip of water, in a manner which amused the internet commentariat and led to meme-creation.
...

I suddenly feel perfectly comfortable in my ignorance.

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#106584: Dec 11th 2015 at 8:21:14 PM

He did it a lot. Just sort of constantly sipping from his water bottle. It was very memetic.

Rubio's pretty awkward, is what I'm saying.

CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#106585: Dec 11th 2015 at 10:17:21 PM

"Representatives Walter Jones Jr. (R-NC) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) have introduced a bill which would strip former House Speaker John Boehner of a little known right of former House Speakers to keep an office on Capitol Hill for up to five years with up to three highly paid staff."

Eh...whatever. Republicans want to be petty toward each other, I don't really care.

"A run off vote or such would probably make such a move by Trump less damaging to Republican chances and I hope that someday people will seriously look at changing how our voting works."

Normally, I would agree, but I want to see the Republican Party implode. I don't really care how much infighting a brokered convention causes.

edited 11th Dec '15 10:39:17 PM by CrimsonZephyr

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
LogoP Party Crasher from the Land of Deep Blue Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: You can be my wingman any time
Party Crasher
#106586: Dec 11th 2015 at 11:31:28 PM

If the Republican Party ever implodes, then the Democrites will, at some point, inevitably split. Their more conservative part will probably end-up filling the gap the Republicans left behind.

These are the cons of a two-party system.

It is sometimes an appropriate response to reality to go insane.
Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#106587: Dec 12th 2015 at 12:24:38 AM

Not necessarily. If the split would lead to a three-party system (see: France), then I predict that the dominant party will stay together and deal with their disputes in-house, barring a Democratic equivalent to the Taft/Roosevelt feud.

A broken and marginalized Republican Party might still win if the Democratic vote is split.

edited 12th Dec '15 12:25:55 AM by Ramidel

PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#106588: Dec 12th 2015 at 2:51:00 AM

If they mean the "damn" water thing, i think we're talking about Rubio stopping midway through his state of the union rebuttal to take a sip of water, in a manner which amused the internet commentariat and led to meme-creation.
He always has a glass of water with him. At all times. When speaking. When pushed recently on it, his people basically had to distractedly brush it off because of how much of a distracting nuisance it is.

Hell Politico had a thing on it on less than a week ago and Donald's knocking on it that it makes him look a weirdo and creepy.

edited 12th Dec '15 2:53:24 AM by PotatoesRock

storyyeller More like giant cherries from Appleloosa Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: RelationshipOutOfBoundsException: 1
More like giant cherries
#106589: Dec 12th 2015 at 6:12:25 AM

How is drinking water supposed to be weird? This is the most absurd political attack I've ever seen.

Blind Final Fantasy 6 Let's Play
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#106590: Dec 12th 2015 at 6:20:55 AM

Drinking water is not weird. However, the mannerisms that Rubio has developed around it make him look nervous and awkward, which is the very last thing you want in a Presidential candidate.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#106591: Dec 12th 2015 at 6:35:00 AM

This still seems rather silly though. There are plenty of legitimate reasons to criticize him. Why focus on this?

Joesolo Indiana Solo Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
Indiana Solo
#106592: Dec 12th 2015 at 6:40:17 AM

It's not really a serious criticism as far as I can tell, just a funny thing he did. Like Bushisms.

I'm baaaaaaack
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#106593: Dec 12th 2015 at 6:43:01 AM

Because, despite his presence in the race, Rubio has done so little to distinguish himself to the public that we latch on to any perceived quirks.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#106594: Dec 12th 2015 at 6:50:56 AM

That, and because arguing policy is apparently only Bernie Sanders's issue.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#106595: Dec 12th 2015 at 7:07:59 AM

Well, it's a Democrat thing. Clinton, Sanders, and O'Malley talk about policy. Republicans argue about which one is the more Pure Conservative and about how horrible Obama is. /yawn

edited 12th Dec '15 7:08:16 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
LogoP Party Crasher from the Land of Deep Blue Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: You can be my wingman any time
Party Crasher
#106596: Dec 12th 2015 at 7:31:07 AM

I'd say that Sander's issue is that he spents too much time arguing about economic policy while not dedicating enpugh time to all the other facets of it.

It is sometimes an appropriate response to reality to go insane.
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#106597: Dec 12th 2015 at 8:24:31 AM

Well, to be fair to Sanders, his general view is if you sort the economic issues out, most of the other problems with the country should more or less rectify themselves.

Bar you, know, foreign policy. To which the vast majority of his argument is "We need far less cowboy diplomacy and more real diplomacy, and using the military should be my last and final resort".

As to my point with Rubio: He's not going to do well with the generals. Yes Obama pulled the same shit as him but he's going to be characterized as a deadbeat who failed to live up to his campaign promises from 2010, the water thing while utterly stupid, is a big enough distraction/elephant that he could get "Tina Fey'd Sarah Palin-ized" (turned into a mockery), and this isn't the fact that soon after election?

DREA Mers he was targeting for his immigration law pretty much attacked him for being an asshole. Because his immigration plan was too strict/unfair. And he dropped that plan because he was terrified of getting shit wrecked by an even more "True Tea Partyman" conservative.

So anyone with a good enough spin machine is going to argue he's too lazy/unprincipled to govern, too 'weird' to be President, and he's a flip flop.

Establishment be damned, I can't see the guy holding up when a stress test is applied.

PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#106598: Dec 12th 2015 at 9:07:21 AM

Double Post and speaking of Rubio weirdness:

(Vox) "Marco Rubio's strategy is utterly baffling"

Basically, Rubio is refusing to strike a strong ground game on New Hampshire and Iowa, viewing them as a complete waste of his time since he doesn't fit with the Evangelical nature of Iowa and the outside-thinker oddball style of New Hampshire. However, candidates who don't win or at least perform well in these states tend to flame out much later on.

As well, Rubio thinks having a ground game/get out the vote strategy is a waste of his resources, when he could be spending money on TV ads that'll reach many more people, who his team is sure will come out to vote.

edited 12th Dec '15 9:07:57 AM by PotatoesRock

tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#106599: Dec 12th 2015 at 9:42:21 AM

Did we talk about the bipartisan bill which is going to replace No Child Left Behind?

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#106600: Dec 12th 2015 at 9:49:38 AM

No, all kind of discussion of a policy is swamped with the election discussion. A major issue with these short election cycles.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman

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