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Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#106551: Dec 11th 2015 at 12:16:48 PM

Carson has been Trump's ideological lapdog for quite while now. I would not be surprised if he came tail wagging and begging for the VP treat after a while.

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
JackOLantern1337 Shameful Display from The Most Miserable Province in the Russian Empir Since: Aug, 2014 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
Shameful Display
#106552: Dec 11th 2015 at 12:18:55 PM

Well that's it, the Republican party is finished. I honestly am actually sad to see them go. So much history down the gutter.

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.
Bense Since: Aug, 2010
#106553: Dec 11th 2015 at 12:25:07 PM

Don't count the GOP out until the actual election. Whoever is the final Republican candidate, they'll still be running against Mrs. Clinton. Nothing motivates the Republican base like facing the real possibility of another Clinton in the Whitehouse.

Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#106554: Dec 11th 2015 at 12:26:22 PM

[up][up]According to someone else, the GOP is actually still very strong. It's just that their power's locked in the state and local governments, and they're really divided among each other.

edited 11th Dec '15 12:27:19 PM by Protagonist506

Leviticus 19:34
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#106555: Dec 11th 2015 at 12:27:32 PM

They'll either come back or another party will fill the center-right/right niche once people release the Tea Party doesn't have a prayer of winning nationally.

Parties die, but the ideas that make them up don't. Look at the fall and revival of the Conservatives in Canada as an example; the party split between Quebec nationalists, Western populists and mainline conservatives; the original party was reduced to 3 seats in 1993, the Westerners couldn't take power due to no appeal East of Manitoba and eventually they merged into a party that (while more right-wing) covered the old Conservative tent minus Quebec. They held power from 2006-2015 and are still healthy now for the most part.

If the Tea Party can be silenced then a new mainline conservative party will rise out of the GOP's ashes.

[up]Also, this. The state parties are doing much better. Though the crazy in the presidential race does pose a threat to Republicans in swing/blue states.

[up][up]But a GOP turnout isn't enough, and nothing like the threat of Trump/Cruz/Carson in the White House motivates Democrats/swing voters to vote for the alternative. The GOP needs to improve their numbers among Latinos (W Bush did fine there, regularly took 45% of that vote) and youth to ever have a chance of retaking the White House. And their long-term success in the Senate is also in question for the same reason. A former Bush campaigner put it best, the GOP is in a demographic boa-constrictor.

edited 11th Dec '15 12:30:53 PM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
DrDougsh Since: Jan, 2001
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#106558: Dec 11th 2015 at 1:06:22 PM

Yeah, Trump's motivation is ego, not money. This campaign isn't making him wealthier.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#106559: Dec 11th 2015 at 1:08:24 PM

Some billionare should gamble all of their fortune vs Trump's that he is going to lose the election.

Best choice ever.

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#106560: Dec 11th 2015 at 1:40:58 PM

He'd just take the bet and get out of paying by declaring bankruptcy.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
eliaskelham Since: Apr, 2015
#106561: Dec 11th 2015 at 1:44:18 PM

Oh, look! Ted Cruz says he enjoys iPhone games!

Well, there goes his hardcore gamer demographic.

AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#106562: Dec 11th 2015 at 1:44:23 PM

@Jack: What water thing? If you're going to mention something make sure you actually tell us what it is because we weren't discussing dams or water recently. (Also why do you keep leaving off the N?)

Anyway, I'm pretty convinced that Trump will run independent, which would be pretty devastating to the Republican party in this election. Split votes are nothing to laugh at in our voting system. (A run off vote or such would probably make such a move by Trump less damaging to Republican chances and I hope that someday people will seriously look at changing how our voting works.)

And Republicans do pretty good on the state level because of the off year elections between presidential election. Democrats don't appear to be paying attention, and people younger than thirty (part of those generally considered to vote more liberally) tend not to pay attention to anything that's smaller than the presidential election, not realizing that smaller elections are, in fact, just as important. I don't really have any solutions for changing this attitude in younger people, it's just an observation some people have made.

AngelusNox Warder of the damned from The guard of the gates of oblivion Since: Dec, 2014 Relationship Status: Married to the job
Warder of the damned
#106563: Dec 11th 2015 at 1:46:02 PM

Obviously Freedom doesn't like Trump.

Inter arma enim silent leges
LogoP Party Crasher from the Land of Deep Blue Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: You can be my wingman any time
Party Crasher
#106564: Dec 11th 2015 at 1:47:51 PM

[up][up][up] It's not like he's stranger to it.

[up] He's lucky the eagle didn't take his toupée as its nest.

edited 11th Dec '15 1:49:32 PM by LogoP

It is sometimes an appropriate response to reality to go insane.
speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#106565: Dec 11th 2015 at 1:58:46 PM

Didn't Trump make a pledge not to run as an independent?

Speaking of which, here's a funny story: St. Paul declares Trump unwelcome in city limits. Pretty sure you can't ban somebody from entering your city, but it's amusing nonetheless.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#106566: Dec 11th 2015 at 2:13:14 PM

Sounds less like banning him and more saying "we don't want you here."

RavenWilder Since: Apr, 2009
#106567: Dec 11th 2015 at 2:16:09 PM

[up][up][up][up][up] Thing is, where do you hear about regional issues and politicians? Generally, from local news outlets like newspapers and evening news shows. And those mediums are almost exclusively consumed by older people.

Younger people tend to get their news from the Internet and, to a lesser extent, cable news. And since Internet and cable news outlets make their content available (inter)nationally, they focus on issues of interest to (inter)national audiences, rather than regional ones. So unless they really go looking for it, or some local scandal blows up into huge news, younger people just aren't going to hear as much about state and local politics compared to older people.

edited 11th Dec '15 2:16:43 PM by RavenWilder

AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#106568: Dec 11th 2015 at 2:25:13 PM

I don't think anyone really took that pledge seriously. And it's not like it's in anyway legally binding. Hell the pledge was specifically about the fear that Trump would do such.

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#106569: Dec 11th 2015 at 2:28:51 PM

Trump took the pledge to have leverage. As long as he's "treated fairly" he won't run as an independent. But the fact that the establishment is transparently opposed to him means if he doesn't win the nomination, he'll probably use that as an excuse.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#106570: Dec 11th 2015 at 2:31:11 PM

Assuming that current poll numbers hold into the primaries themselves, the only way that the GOP could rid themselves of Trump would be to pull some kind of shenanigan where they deny him the nomination via a brokered convention, and if they do that, Trump might very well storm off and go independent.

edited 11th Dec '15 2:31:25 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Know-age Since: May, 2010
#106571: Dec 11th 2015 at 2:43:22 PM

If they do that, they will most likely permanently lose everyone sympathetic to him and destroy their party.

Ekuran Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
#106572: Dec 11th 2015 at 2:46:15 PM

So, that's the best thing that could happen.

DrDougsh Since: Jan, 2001
#106573: Dec 11th 2015 at 2:57:57 PM

To be fair to Trump, if the GOP establishment is actively trying to stack the odds against him getting elected fair and square in the primaries, threatening a third party run is probably his best weapon to discourage them from interfering dishonestly. It's arguably a valid response.

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#106574: Dec 11th 2015 at 3:10:28 PM

Actually, if "a new moderate conservative party" were to rise, we'd be calling it the Democrats. There isn't enough daylight between the Tea Party and the old Blue Dogs for actual conservatives to carve out a space for themselves, and no party can woo the Tea Party without being corrupted by it.

And while the idea of a left-wing party has some appeal, the Left has historically not been very good (in any country) at forming a big tent and sticking with it - as Monty Python explained.

As I've said before, my prediction is a rump Tea Party that never gets nationally elected but can't fix its problems due to a bad case of crab-bucket mentality, and a big tent of everyone else.

PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#106575: Dec 11th 2015 at 6:38:17 PM

@ Potatoes I really don't see how the dam water thing was that big of a deal. If Obama had done such a thing you guys would probably be calling it the nothing it was, and of course the Republicans would be calling it the scandal of the century, such is the way of politics. And as for the not voting thing, he also shares that with Obama. Both were obviously being groomed for presidential runs, and therefore had an interest in being absent from any votes that could cause controversy.
Image is everything. The water thing is distracting as minor as it is and while it's not a scandal, it distracts from him. Humans are really fucking weird.

As to the Obama thing: Rubio was sent to shake up, change and upturn Washington. Obama wasn't.

Rubio's a deadbeat on separate orders.

edited 11th Dec '15 6:40:31 PM by PotatoesRock


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