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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
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According to someone else, the GOP is actually still very strong. It's just that their power's locked in the state and local governments, and they're really divided among each other.
edited 11th Dec '15 12:27:19 PM by Protagonist506
Leviticus 19:34They'll either come back or another party will fill the center-right/right niche once people release the Tea Party doesn't have a prayer of winning nationally.
Parties die, but the ideas that make them up don't. Look at the fall and revival of the Conservatives in Canada as an example; the party split between Quebec nationalists, Western populists and mainline conservatives; the original party was reduced to 3 seats in 1993, the Westerners couldn't take power due to no appeal East of Manitoba and eventually they merged into a party that (while more right-wing) covered the old Conservative tent minus Quebec. They held power from 2006-2015 and are still healthy now for the most part.
If the Tea Party can be silenced then a new mainline conservative party will rise out of the GOP's ashes.
Also, this. The state parties are doing much better. Though the crazy in the presidential race does pose a threat to Republicans in swing/blue states.
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But a GOP turnout isn't enough, and nothing like the threat of Trump/Cruz/Carson in the White House motivates Democrats/swing voters to vote for the alternative. The GOP needs to improve their numbers among Latinos (W Bush did fine there, regularly took 45% of that vote) and youth to ever have a chance of retaking the White House. And their long-term success in the Senate is also in question for the same reason. A former Bush campaigner put it best, the GOP is in a demographic boa-constrictor.
edited 11th Dec '15 12:30:53 PM by Rationalinsanity
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.edited 11th Dec '15 12:56:51 PM by Protagonist506
Leviticus 19:34Yeah, Trump's motivation is ego, not money. This campaign isn't making him wealthier.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"@Jack: What water thing? If you're going to mention something make sure you actually tell us what it is because we weren't discussing dams or water recently. (Also why do you keep leaving off the N?)
Anyway, I'm pretty convinced that Trump will run independent, which would be pretty devastating to the Republican party in this election. Split votes are nothing to laugh at in our voting system. (A run off vote or such would probably make such a move by Trump less damaging to Republican chances and I hope that someday people will seriously look at changing how our voting works.)
And Republicans do pretty good on the state level because of the off year elections between presidential election. Democrats don't appear to be paying attention, and people younger than thirty (part of those generally considered to vote more liberally) tend not to pay attention to anything that's smaller than the presidential election, not realizing that smaller elections are, in fact, just as important. I don't really have any solutions for changing this attitude in younger people, it's just an observation some people have made.
Didn't Trump make a pledge not to run as an independent?
Speaking of which, here's a funny story: St. Paul declares Trump unwelcome in city limits.
Pretty sure you can't ban somebody from entering your city, but it's amusing nonetheless.
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Thing is, where do you hear about regional issues and politicians? Generally, from local news outlets like newspapers and evening news shows. And those mediums are almost exclusively consumed by older people.
Younger people tend to get their news from the Internet and, to a lesser extent, cable news. And since Internet and cable news outlets make their content available (inter)nationally, they focus on issues of interest to (inter)national audiences, rather than regional ones. So unless they really go looking for it, or some local scandal blows up into huge news, younger people just aren't going to hear as much about state and local politics compared to older people.
edited 11th Dec '15 2:16:43 PM by RavenWilder
Assuming that current poll numbers hold into the primaries themselves, the only way that the GOP could rid themselves of Trump would be to pull some kind of shenanigan where they deny him the nomination via a brokered convention, and if they do that, Trump might very well storm off and go independent.
edited 11th Dec '15 2:31:25 PM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Actually, if "a new moderate conservative party" were to rise, we'd be calling it the Democrats. There isn't enough daylight between the Tea Party and the old Blue Dogs for actual conservatives to carve out a space for themselves, and no party can woo the Tea Party without being corrupted by it.
And while the idea of a left-wing party has some appeal, the Left has historically not been very good (in any country) at forming a big tent and sticking with it - as Monty Python explained.
As I've said before, my prediction is a rump Tea Party that never gets nationally elected but can't fix its problems due to a bad case of crab-bucket mentality, and a big tent of everyone else.
As to the Obama thing: Rubio was sent to shake up, change and upturn Washington. Obama wasn't.
Rubio's a deadbeat on separate orders.
edited 11th Dec '15 6:40:31 PM by PotatoesRock

Carson has been Trump's ideological lapdog for quite while now. I would not be surprised if he came tail wagging and begging for the VP treat after a while.
It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes