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Nov 2023 Mod notice:


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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Elle Since: Jan, 2001
#106501: Dec 11th 2015 at 12:50:42 AM

Holler for a mod ruling if you want, I have nothing to add.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#106502: Dec 11th 2015 at 1:08:47 AM

The history of religion in the US is only tangentially related to US politics. A long digression like the one on the past page is not on topic, thusly.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Medinoc from France (Before Recorded History)
#106503: Dec 11th 2015 at 1:22:17 AM

Trump is even getting spoken of in France.

Lately, Les Guignols de l'Info, our version of Spitting Image, has been advertising an upcoming "great reunion" episode with ads showing the puppets of two antagonistic political figures hugging, such as Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy... And Barack Obama and Donald Trump.

"And as long as a sack of shit is not a good thing to be, chivalry will never die."
FieldMarshalFry Field Marshal of Cracked from World Internet War 1 Since: Oct, 2015 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
Field Marshal of Cracked
#106504: Dec 11th 2015 at 2:57:32 AM

you know... I'm getting increasingly worried about the popularity of Trump... I wouldn't be surprised that, if he does win, the rest of the worlds response of "oh fuck no!" will cause him to go all Imperialist, and start WW3 to sooth his oversized ego

advancing the front into TV Tropes
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#106505: Dec 11th 2015 at 3:02:02 AM

Sure, and if a large enough asteroid hits the earth we're all doomed. Neither thing is worth worrying about. There's a slim chance that Trump will win the nomination, but the 2016 presidential is something even a more moderate Republican would have an uphill battle to win, Trump would have no chance.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
DrunkenNordmann from Exile Since: May, 2015
#106506: Dec 11th 2015 at 3:10:26 AM

[up][up] Or he'll just cause a budget crunch.

We learn from history that we do not learn from history
FieldMarshalFry Field Marshal of Cracked from World Internet War 1 Since: Oct, 2015 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
Field Marshal of Cracked
#106507: Dec 11th 2015 at 3:13:06 AM

war is a popular way to prop up a failing government

advancing the front into TV Tropes
3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#106508: Dec 11th 2015 at 3:14:02 AM

[up]So Canada should be worried?

"You can reply to this Message!"
DrunkenNordmann from Exile Since: May, 2015
#106509: Dec 11th 2015 at 3:14:34 AM

You know, it kind of makes me sad that he wasn't as big a contender last election - then we might have gotten him as president in Iron Sky instead of Palin. [lol]

edited 11th Dec '15 3:15:29 AM by DrunkenNordmann

We learn from history that we do not learn from history
FieldMarshalFry Field Marshal of Cracked from World Internet War 1 Since: Oct, 2015 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
Field Marshal of Cracked
#106510: Dec 11th 2015 at 3:18:08 AM

hey, we can still get him in Iron Sky 2

advancing the front into TV Tropes
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#106511: Dec 11th 2015 at 3:27:03 AM

Wasn't Gingritch leading the Republican primary at this point in the 2012 cycle? Let's wait for the primaries to actually officially start before we worry about who's leading shall we?

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#106512: Dec 11th 2015 at 4:01:42 AM

Gingrich wasn't leading persistently.

For. 6. Fucking. Months.

>_>

Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#106514: Dec 11th 2015 at 6:07:31 AM

This has been debated in my other forum. I mean, it's pretty clear that the constitution says "free persons" and not "eligible voters," but then the 14th amendment comes along and decrees "one person, one vote," which is the basis of the plaintiff's argument.

Although the only way the SC could really screw the pooch on it is if they demanded the districts be formed based on registered voters, which would badly favor GOP districts. "eligible" voters only hurts in areas where there are large immigrant non-citizen populations. In fact, strictly defining on eligibility could hurt rural districts as well, as many of them count nonvoting prisoners in with their population.

edited 11th Dec '15 6:07:48 AM by Ogodei

probablyinsane Since: Oct, 2011 Relationship Status: I LOVE THIS DOCTOR!
#106515: Dec 11th 2015 at 6:29:13 AM

No no no, Trump has not been leading for six months. What he has done is consistently go up the ranks.

As far as I'm concerned, he ain't the leading rep candidate unless / until he overtakes Rubio with the gambling crowd.

/ grasping at straws. I made a promise to self ? months ago to ignore, but wtfffff USA media.

So much for my assumption that I would be feeling torn between Clinton and Sanders. At this point of Trump ridiculousness, you Democrats got to put Clinton in. Sanders vs Trump is too damn risky even with Clinton as VP.

Plants are aliens, and fungi are nanomachines.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#106517: Dec 11th 2015 at 6:51:19 AM

You know. If the majority of the gambling crowd were frequently right, the majority of the gambling crowd would be rich by gambling.

The fact they vote for trump is more indicative to probability of him losing. If you wanted to use bets from someone who was more analytical, I'd go for the high rollers that live out of that. Not the rich fuckers that go waste millions there for funsies.

Statistically and historically though, Trump is fucked. If you live outside the U.S, have a fun and a laugh at his expense. If you are from within the U.S...well. Panic is more understandable there.

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
probablyinsane Since: Oct, 2011 Relationship Status: I LOVE THIS DOCTOR!
#106518: Dec 11th 2015 at 6:54:05 AM

The gambling crowd has Clinton at rank 1 from the start.

Plants are aliens, and fungi are nanomachines.
probablyinsane Since: Oct, 2011 Relationship Status: I LOVE THIS DOCTOR!
#106519: Dec 11th 2015 at 7:11:53 AM

Gambling is based more on math while polls are based on feelings. Following Telegraph explains in detail why:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457970/If-you-want-to-know-who-will-win-the-election-ask-a-gambler.html

Here's tidbits:

This didn’t surprise anyone who had followed the history of political betting markets in the US, which correctly predicted almost every US presidential election between 1868 and 1940. In only one year, 1916, did the candidate favoured in the betting the month before the election, Charles E Hughes, end up losing, and that in a very tight race.

The hypothesis here is that the collective wisdom of many people is greater than the conclusions of a few. Those myriad people feed in the best information and analysis they can because their own financial rewards depend directly upon this. And it really is a case of “follow the money” because those who know the most, and are best able to process the available information, tend to bet the most.

I also use odds checker which aggregates data from many gambling sites.

If you want to argue that the gambling crowd is wrong about Clinton, no further replies from moi.

edited 11th Dec '15 7:19:40 AM by probablyinsane

Plants are aliens, and fungi are nanomachines.
TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#106520: Dec 11th 2015 at 7:21:56 AM

As far as I'm concerned, he ain't the leading rep candidate unless / until he overtakes Rubio with the gambling crowd.

Speaking of Rubio, the back room money seems to be aligning behind him

Ken Griffin, one of the Republican Party's biggest donors, is backing Marco Rubio for president, the latest top-tier financier to align with Rubio in recent months.

Griffin, the wealthiest man in Illinois and the head of the investment firm Citadel, told CNBC on Wednesday that he would back Rubio and give "several million dollars" to Rubio's super PAC, which can accept unlimited contributions. Rubio's campaign confirmed the planned support.

...

Chicagoan gave $3.8 million to conservative candidates and outside groups in 2014, the seventh most of any person in the country, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The top Republican giver, Paul Singer of New York, previously pledged to support Rubio as well.

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#106521: Dec 11th 2015 at 7:24:05 AM

[up][up] My argument was more "Trump is fucked and his score in the polls and gambles is actually more poorf of this than against it"

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#106522: Dec 11th 2015 at 7:27:53 AM

Oh, I am sure they are right about Clinton, but I highly doubt that they are correct that Rubio will be the nominee for the Republicans.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
JackOLantern1337 Shameful Display from The Most Miserable Province in the Russian Empir Since: Aug, 2014 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
Shameful Display
#106523: Dec 11th 2015 at 7:30:07 AM

America's Immigration Challenge Coming to the United States would benefit millions—but policymakers seldom ask whether their arrival would benefit the United States.

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.
probablyinsane Since: Oct, 2011 Relationship Status: I LOVE THIS DOCTOR!
#106524: Dec 11th 2015 at 7:34:06 AM

[up][up][up]

Your post seems to deride the gambling crowd. But anyway so long as you're not unaware of it's considerable predictive capability.

I've seen Trump steadily go up the odds ranking for months. Which is why I'm worried more and more. His odds are closing in on Rubio. [up][up] I think he averaged a rank up a month.

AND the no publicity is bad publicity effect - I can't understimate this.

edited 11th Dec '15 7:34:51 AM by probablyinsane

Plants are aliens, and fungi are nanomachines.
TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#106525: Dec 11th 2015 at 7:53:23 AM

AND the no publicity is bad publicity effect - I can't understimate this

Trump supporters feel disenfranchised by the system, so after they adopted Trump as their standard bearer for spewing the simplistic (and stupid) solutions they want to be right and the racist/xenophobic garbage that they have fears of being called out for, he became immune to criticism. These are people who've spent years, if not decades, retreating behind conspiracy theories and alternate world news coverage to make excuses for why their lives suck, so they have no problem believing that anyone who criticizes their man is part of their latest paranoid delusion right up there with the lizard people in charge of the White House and the Illuminati Zionists who control the banks.

So criticism of Trump actually reinforces their belief in him, because they get similarly criticized and they know for sure that they're right, so they just do what the American Right has been doing for the last 20 years in the face of criticism, since the impeachment of Bill Clinton: they double down.

And every time Trump shows signs of slipping in the polls, he deliberately does something outrageous to get the media to criticize him, and the support firms up again.

There isn't going to be a sudden line that Trump crosses where everyone abandons him, it's going to be a matter of it melting away one person at a time until the wave he's riding just becomes a group of die hards that are too few to carry him where he wants to go.

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |

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