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JackOLantern1337 Shameful Display from The Most Miserable Province in the Russian Empir Since: Aug, 2014 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
Shameful Display
#104151: Oct 30th 2015 at 8:53:45 PM

I'm fairly certain that if Bernie wins the nomination he can defeat any candidate the Republicans throw at him. If he will run the country well, that is where my doubts lie.

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.
probablyinsane Since: Oct, 2011 Relationship Status: I LOVE THIS DOCTOR!
#104152: Oct 30th 2015 at 8:59:11 PM

imho, just be happy if either Clinton or Sanders win.

That Trump is in 3rd place right now makes me wish I hadn't even laughed at his chances those months ago. At least back then, Bush was in the lead for the gop nom , and he seemed a more or less reasonable sort.

Don't know much about Rubio. Will cliffnotes him later.

Plants are aliens, and fungi are nanomachines.
TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#104153: Oct 30th 2015 at 9:12:22 PM

Wait for actual primary votes to come in. And not just Iowa. Iowa has been pretty terrible lately at predicting the eventual nominee.

AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#104154: Oct 30th 2015 at 9:15:24 PM

Well, it seems like most of the candidates are having a meeting on Sunday to set up their own debates, without the input of the RNC or television networks. So uh... if you essentially say the RNC no longer matters how will the nominee be chosen? Doesn't the RNC take stock of the primary votes as well as organizing the debates?

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#104155: Oct 30th 2015 at 9:16:56 PM

Just because the RNC isn't involved in the debates doesn't mean that they're not involved in tallying the primary votes.

Though, if Trump feels cheated, he might run third party. That'd be a wonder to see.

Deadbeatloser22 from Disappeared by Space Magic (Great Old One) Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
#104156: Oct 31st 2015 at 4:14:11 AM

BBC: Syria conflict: Russia warns US of 'proxy war risk'

Russia has warned of the risk of a "proxy war" in the Middle East after the US said it would send special forces to Syria.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said this increased the need for co-operation between the US and Russia.

US officials said "fewer than 50" troops would "train, advise and assist" vetted opposition forces in fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS).

"Yup. That tasted purple."
Joesolo Indiana Solo Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
Indiana Solo
#104157: Oct 31st 2015 at 6:29:25 AM

Warns us? If they were really worried then they wouldn't be involved. Putin wants to play by cold war rules, then so be it.

On the Bernie subject, he really has a lot of support. I've been out of v the loop on these forums for a bit but the rest of the Web is going pretty nuts for him. Except the Republicans who like trump and call Sanders a commie, but they wouldn't vote Democrat anyway.

I really think his best shot is if Trump runs, though that's looking less and less likely. He's gotten the tea party excited, and some others but even other republicans don't want him. Hell, my grand father went to one of Glenn Becks marches and he would rather have hillary than trump.

I'm baaaaaaack
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#104158: Oct 31st 2015 at 7:36:01 AM

[up][up]Didn't Trump sign some kind of contract promising not to run separately from the Republican party? Granted, don't doubt he'd ignore it if he felt slighted but I'm wondering if so would that come back to bite him?

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#104159: Oct 31st 2015 at 7:59:33 AM

He did sign something or other like that, but if he feels like the RNC acted in bad faith he'd welch instantly.

JackOLantern1337 Shameful Display from The Most Miserable Province in the Russian Empir Since: Aug, 2014 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
Shameful Display
#104160: Oct 31st 2015 at 8:23:19 AM

Why Middle-Class Americans Can't Afford to Live in Liberal Cities Blue America has a problem: Even after adjusting for income, left-leaning metros tend to have worse income inequality and less affordable housing.

In Defense of Gentrification The prevailing narrative ignores an abundance of evidence that relatively few low-income neighborhoods get gentrified—and when they do, there’s much less displacement than is commonly assumed.

edited 31st Oct '15 8:27:32 AM by JackOLantern1337

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.
Joesolo Indiana Solo Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
Indiana Solo
#104161: Oct 31st 2015 at 8:35:18 AM

If he split from the party, it'd be an automatic Democrat win, even if they put up someone we don't even recognize.

He'd take a decent chunk of the Republican vote, but never all of it

edited 31st Oct '15 8:35:55 AM by Joesolo

I'm baaaaaaack
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#104162: Oct 31st 2015 at 9:09:09 AM

That's an interesting link, Jack. It was only this year that i started to get exposed to the anti-gentrification side, so that's a neat counterargument. I have to wonder whether more research is needed, though. Especially because the survey seems to target dwellers in public housing, who wouldn't be impacted by it since the government sets their rent rates, rather than private landlords who could double rent overnight if the tenant's on a month-to-month lease.

CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#104163: Oct 31st 2015 at 2:49:27 PM

"I'm fairly certain that if Bernie wins the nomination he can defeat any candidate the Republicans throw at him. If he will run the country well, that is where my doubts lie."

Actually, no, he will lose. Everything he says is electoral kryptonite when it comes to Middle America, the voting bloc that will agree that banks need to be held accountable, the environment needs to be protected, and access to healthcare expanded, but whose eyes will collectively glaze over once the inevitable "dirty commie" insult is thrown and Bernie himself starts shooting himself in the foot by obsessing over Denmark. American cognitive dissonance will always prevent the election of a socialist candidate. Besides, people like Bernie aren't supposed to win elections. They're there to get people talking about issues.

edited 31st Oct '15 2:50:30 PM by CrimsonZephyr

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#104164: Oct 31st 2015 at 3:09:29 PM

The GOP has been throwing the "dirty commie" insult at Obama for the better part of a decade and it hasn't convinced anyone except their own base. The GOP will continue to throw the "dirty commie" insult at anyone the Democrats nominate, regardless of who it is. I don't think "it's slightly less inaccurate to call Sanders a dirty commie than it is to call Clinton a dirty commie!" is a legit reason to say that Sanders would lose an election that Clinton would win.

If the Democrats let the Republicans frame the narrative of the election, they're going to lose. If they get people to vote on the issues, then they're going to win. That's as true of Sanders as it is of Clinton. The question is which would be more effective at doing that.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
Eschaton Since: Jul, 2010
#104165: Oct 31st 2015 at 3:14:09 PM

From my perspective, "Middle America" hardly agrees about those issues (and that might be reflecting the problem), but I get what you're saying.

Even though he and his policies have gained significantly more support than many expected, he is still all too easy to write off entirely for the most arbitrary of reasons. However, I can certainly see tensions rising even more over time as later "Bernie Sanders" are taken more and more seriously.

It's no surprise that when Sanders says "yes, we can have better education, healthcare, and wages," it turns out that people really like it after years being told "no, you can't do that, it will destroy America."

Though on the other end, when Trump says "yes, we can kick out all of the Mexicans," it turns out people really like it after years of being told "no, you can't do that, it will destroy America."

edited 31st Oct '15 3:14:38 PM by Eschaton

PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#104166: Oct 31st 2015 at 3:26:28 PM

Well Trump hit what is kind of a sad but understandable sweet spot, I think:

Middle Class Americans love healthcare, education and wages. They just don't want foreigners to get any of it.

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#104167: Oct 31st 2015 at 3:29:24 PM

Trump is basically just 100% southern strategy.

Eschaton Since: Jul, 2010
#104168: Oct 31st 2015 at 3:42:30 PM

[up][up]I'd say it's more that many middle-class Americans love healthcare, education and wages, but they just don't want people who don't deserve it to get any of it.

[down]Well obviously. The issue in particular is that they apply this broader attitude not just to foreigners, but to citizens as well.

edited 31st Oct '15 3:55:12 PM by Eschaton

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#104169: Oct 31st 2015 at 3:46:56 PM

[up]Problem is their (in a general sense) sense of who "deserves" what is highly suspect and biased.

Gabrael from My musings Since: Nov, 2011 Relationship Status: Is that a kind of food?
#104170: Oct 31st 2015 at 3:53:59 PM

They also don't want to make the sacrifices needed to achieve these goals.

Ya want better schools, hospitals, or emergency training? We have to raise and/or reallocate taxes.

And they don't want to consider that.

"Psssh. Even if you could catch a miracle on a picture any person would probably delete it to make space for more porn." - Aszur
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#104171: Oct 31st 2015 at 3:55:15 PM

Trump appeals to the unique demographic of deeply impoverished white people who really want better social nets but have ethnic purity as their top priority.

Oh really when?
CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#104172: Oct 31st 2015 at 4:10:32 PM

"The GOP has been throwing the "dirty commie" insult at Obama for the better part of a decade and it hasn't convinced anyone except their own base. The GOP will continue to throw the "dirty commie" insult at anyone the Democrats nominate, regardless of who it is. I don't think "it's slightly less inaccurate to call Sanders a dirty commie than it is to call Clinton a dirty commie!" is a legit reason to say that Sanders would lose an election that Clinton would win."

The reason the Dirty Commie label never sticks to Obama is because it's patently untrue. That isn't the case for Sanders, who outright called himself a socialist. Now, my personal opinion is, "Who the fuck cares?" but for a lot of Americans, that's going to be an impassable hurdle.

"If the Democrats let the Republicans frame the narrative of the election, they're going to lose. If they get people to vote on the issues, then they're going to win."

It's not that simple. Cognitive dissonance is perhaps the biggest factor in any electoral contest in this country. For Bernie, the genie's out of the bottle. He's an out socialist, so every policy aim will be framed as being part of a Stalinist narrative of oppressing the people under the bootheel of the Party. With anyone else, you could have a line by line program of socialist policies, and people will agree, "Yeah! That's great!" but as soon as you start calling it socialist, it becomes poison.

The stakes are too high to wait for American voters to realize the Cold War ended. We need a Democrat in the White House to appoint the next couple Supreme Court justices, and can't afford to gamble with Bernie.

edited 31st Oct '15 4:16:29 PM by CrimsonZephyr

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
Ekuran Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
#104173: Oct 31st 2015 at 4:17:10 PM

Most polls show him beating Trump (by nearly 10 points in the most recent one, which would be a huge landslide victory), who's probably going to win the Republican nomination and is far, far more unpalatable than Sanders. He'd win against any Republican due to how many safe electoral votes a not crazy looking Democrat already has.

The "dirty commie" insult doesn't really work anymore due to every Democrat being called one. The people who have a problem with Sander's "socialist" label would have never voted for a Democrat anyway, and the extremely tiny minority who might have would be replaced with those who would finally vote because he calls himself one.

LogoP Party Crasher from the Land of Deep Blue Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: You can be my wingman any time
Party Crasher
#104174: Oct 31st 2015 at 4:22:01 PM

I never understood the stigma surrounding the word 'socialism' (and its derivatives) in America. Surely it must have roots in the Cold War, but the cold war has been over for some decades now.

Even as American society/politics get more and more progressive, socialism, social, socialized et al. remain a taboo. That and the female nipple.

edited 31st Oct '15 4:22:28 PM by LogoP

It is sometimes an appropriate response to reality to go insane.
AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#104175: Oct 31st 2015 at 4:22:57 PM

[up][up]While encouraging, all the statements about it being too early to make a truly accurate prediction are as true of Sanders as they are of Trump.

[up]The Cold War may be over, but the people who grew up with it and were involved with it are still alive and kicking.

edited 31st Oct '15 4:24:19 PM by AceofSpades


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