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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#104001: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:24:22 PM

Thing is the Trump impact has been made. Even the moderates can't get away from it, as for say Jeb to get the nomination he'll have to show some crazy, and then he'll end up like Romney.

As for scandal, the Republicans have become the boy who cried wolf now. They could get a tape of Sanders and Clinton having sex on a Chinese flag to the USSR national anthem in the White House, and everybody would just role their eyes and go "Republicans are at it again, with another bullshit non-existent scandal". The Dems are almost scandal proof at this point, as the Republicans have been at it so long that nobody believes anything they say anymore.

edited 28th Oct '15 7:25:23 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
ILoveDogs Since: May, 2010
#104002: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:28:21 PM

Are you sure? I'd like to think that the Democrats have an easy win, but we can never be too careful.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#104003: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:38:56 PM

Okay lets go ahead and math it then. 270 electoral votes are needed to win. we can safely assume that both parties will hold all the states they've won in the last 4 elections (so the ones the Dem's held against Bush and the ones Republicans held against Obama).

That gives the Dems 242 electoral votes and the Republicans 179 electoral votes.

So for a Republican win the Republicans need to get all the states they've won 3 of the last 4 elections (Nebraska 2nd (1EV) North Carolina (15EV) Indiana (11EV)), which is possible, AND Florida (possible), AND Ohio (technically possible), AND Virginia (possible) AND either Nevada (unlikely I'd say) or Colorado (also seems unlikely).

Those are all possible things, but the Republicans have to do all of them, they can't falter at all or they've pretty much lost. Pulling of one of those things is possible, pulling of two is difficult, pulling off three is insanely difficult, pulling of four is mad and pulling of all five, well that would be a bloody miracle for the Republicans.

Let's compare with a Democrat win. So what do the Dems need? Any combination of the following that makes 28 electoral votes. Which is a ton of possible combinations. Florida alone would do it.

  • Toss ups (won 2 times each in past 4 elections) (75EV)
    • Florida (29EV)
    • Ohio (18EV)
    • Nevada (6EV)
    • Virginia (13EV)
    • Colorado (9EV)
  • Dem strong lean (won 3 of last 4 elections) (15EV)
    • Iowa (6EV)
    • New Mexico (5EV)
    • New Hampshire (4EV)

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Gabrael from My musings Since: Nov, 2011 Relationship Status: Is that a kind of food?
#104004: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:40:26 PM

Democrats dont have an easy win because moron liberal idiots wont get out and vote.

And even if we do score a president who isnt a complete loser, we still have congress to deal with and state's rights issues to combat.

Put the fork away because we aint even close to being done.

"Psssh. Even if you could catch a miracle on a picture any person would probably delete it to make space for more porn." - Aszur
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#104005: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:41:43 PM

The Republicans can't win the White House barring some horrendous catastrophe.

The real damage they've done is to American culture and the political scene. All the crazies we've got somewhat suppressed are now emboldened and publicly accepted.

Things are gonna get bad

Oh really when?
Xopher001 Since: Jul, 2012
#104006: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:43:58 PM

[up][up][up]Geez, the electoral system really IS broken. The way you put it, my vote doesnt matter

edited 28th Oct '15 7:44:31 PM by Xopher001

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#104007: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:44:18 PM

This was the worst debate I have ever seen. CNBC should not host again.

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#104008: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:45:07 PM

Gabreal: the aforementioned math already accounts for poor voter turnout from previous elections. Of course, Republican efforts to FURTHER depress voter turnout are relevant.

Gabrael from My musings Since: Nov, 2011 Relationship Status: Is that a kind of food?
#104009: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:45:30 PM

No. Vote. For the love of all that is holy and a few things that arent go vote!

[up] Thats cute. I dont really care. They swore there was no way Bush could beat Kerry and we see how that turned out.

I dont want to give any reason for those dumbass kids who wail about their vote doesnt matter than bitch about the horrible leaders to keep acting the way they are.

Again, even if we can get a Democrat president, that means dick if everything else is againat him as we have seen with Obama

edited 28th Oct '15 7:48:38 PM by Gabrael

"Psssh. Even if you could catch a miracle on a picture any person would probably delete it to make space for more porn." - Aszur
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#104010: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:47:03 PM

[up]X6 It's not a win if the Democrats fail to get out the vote properly, but assuming they do even at a reasonable level (which they should easily, Trump and Co are keeping the Democrat base angry enough to make sure they vote) it should be a solid. However everyone is right that a presidency win is far from a silver bullet, a lot more is needed before problems can be fixed.

I've got no fork out, I'm just trying to get others to put away the white flags.

[up]X4 Your vote always matters. Even if we ignore state and local stuff, your vote helps determine how the Democratic party spends its money. If you vote and they know you will vote then that frees up money to be spent in swing states, if you don't vote/they're not sure you'll vote then the Democrats will spend money trying to ensure you do vote, money that could be used elsewhere.

Plus there's the basic fact that nobody wants a repeat of 2000. And a president with a bigger percentage of the vote can claim a stronger mandate.

edited 28th Oct '15 7:49:59 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
LinkToTheFuture A real bad hombre from somewhere completely different Since: Apr, 2015 Relationship Status: What's love got to do with it?
A real bad hombre
#104011: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:48:45 PM

Somebody really needs to put an impartial third party in charge of drawing the congressional districts.

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." -Thomas Edison
Ekuran Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
#104012: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:50:43 PM

Let's be honest here, Gabrael. The "moron liberals" are too poor, tired, and will get fired from their 3 jobs if they try to vote. Let's not try to pretend the "lazy young liberal" "problem" is anything but a smokescreen.

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#104013: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:56:15 PM

It's not the poor ones who are lazy, it's the rich hipster types.

Oh really when?
Gabrael from My musings Since: Nov, 2011 Relationship Status: Is that a kind of food?
#104014: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:57:36 PM

I live in a town with three colleges.

There are plenty of those liberal morons here. Even the rich campus had an absentee voting center. They didnt even get 10% of the students to vote.

Not even 10%...on a campus of tens of thousands where they have the money to pay over 100,000 a year for an education.

These are the people i am sick of. This isnt a smokescreen.

I have stood in line with people early voting on their lunch break and doing absentee vote. Republicans are making it to the polls. Liberal people can too. Not all poor downtroddens are voting liberal.

Hell, down the street in the red part of town stays open until 12am to help people vote and they aint voting democrat.

"Psssh. Even if you could catch a miracle on a picture any person would probably delete it to make space for more porn." - Aszur
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#104015: Oct 28th 2015 at 7:59:45 PM

Basically it all boils down to the fact that rich people are just awful.

Like they are.

Oh really when?
TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#104016: Oct 28th 2015 at 8:09:22 PM

I'm definitely a lazy liberal hipster :P

But you also have to realize that there's only a small handful of districts that are competitive. It becomes mathematically impossible for people in certain regions of the country to have any serious vote.

The problem there, of course, is that the goal doesn't have to be having your vote count for this election, so much as being part of the momentum that decides future elections.

If more red state liberals voted, future red states might be blue, essentially.

Gabrael from My musings Since: Nov, 2011 Relationship Status: Is that a kind of food?
#104017: Oct 28th 2015 at 8:14:27 PM

You do realize you have to vote for more than the president at the polls right?

Youre voting for state and federal positions, congressmen, judges, mayors or councilmen, education board, police chief, etc.

You are also voting for propositions like policy, taxes, licenses, and sometimes budgets.

And yes, you can turn in an empty ballot of you so choose.

If you can vote, and you refuse to, youre a hateful person making everything harder on others.

Because in my experience, those of us most effected by this regardless of how we swing are voting. We are not rich enough to be sheltered from the blows.

"Psssh. Even if you could catch a miracle on a picture any person would probably delete it to make space for more porn." - Aszur
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#104018: Oct 28th 2015 at 8:16:41 PM

Your vote is always serious and it always counts.

Maybe there's no chance of it flipping any elections (though as someone who's seen council seats come down to 2 votes I dispute that idea), but it can still have a real impact. It can boost or challenge the legitimacy of the winner, it can push your backed party to pay more or less attention/put more or less money into your area, it can inspire others to later vote that way by making a party's victory more possible, it can make the elected official care about your demographic by telling them that there's a vote there to be had.

Your vote can do so much, never underestimate it and never throw it away.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#104019: Oct 28th 2015 at 8:18:37 PM

My district is more blood red than my state, Gab. Gerry mandering is a bitch.

It's certainly true that the "my vote doesn't matter so why vote anyway" position is toxic, but it's also true (again, in the short run), just as a question of math.

Now, when there are ballot initiatives that are competitive up for vote, then it's no longer true. But that's generally not the case.

edited 28th Oct '15 8:19:57 PM by TheyCallMeTomu

LinkToTheFuture A real bad hombre from somewhere completely different Since: Apr, 2015 Relationship Status: What's love got to do with it?
A real bad hombre
#104020: Oct 28th 2015 at 8:19:02 PM

If what I've seen on the internet is any indication, it seems that most people who could vote but don't fall into one of two categories: those who are apathetic and those who have passed the Despair Event Horizon in regards to politics who are convinced that their vote is useless.

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." -Thomas Edison
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#104021: Oct 28th 2015 at 8:20:14 PM

[up][up] Doesn't fucking matter.

Tomu if your vote doesn't matter, why do you think Republicans are so hell bent on taking it away from you (see voter ID laws)?

edited 28th Oct '15 8:21:49 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#104022: Oct 28th 2015 at 8:20:28 PM

There's like, 20 counties or so where your vote profoundly and legitimately counts, mathematically speaking.

Gabrael from My musings Since: Nov, 2011 Relationship Status: Is that a kind of food?
#104023: Oct 28th 2015 at 8:20:32 PM

So?

Still no reason not to vote.

"Psssh. Even if you could catch a miracle on a picture any person would probably delete it to make space for more porn." - Aszur
TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#104024: Oct 28th 2015 at 8:20:56 PM

Opportunity cost of time.

Also, I don't have the required voter ID (which is my biggest deterrent).

edited 28th Oct '15 8:21:26 PM by TheyCallMeTomu

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#104025: Oct 28th 2015 at 8:22:42 PM

So even though you're being stopped from voting by a Republican law make specifically because Republicans fear your vote, you think your vote doesn't matter?

That law alone tells you that your vote matters.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran

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