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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
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I'm talking about a three way for the Alaska senate seat, where in 2010 the local Tea Party forced the republican incumbent (who's to moderate for them) to run as a write in (which she won). I've been given no reason to think that the Alaskan Tea Party has gotten any saner over the last 6 years, so I trust nothing.
The best thing for Trump to do (from the Dems' perspective) is to not only run as a third party candidate but also to rally a ton of crazy followers and have them run in House and Senate races, effectively creating a third party. It would split swing districts in the Dems favor.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.@Silasw: Yeah, but the primary voters as a whole are unlikely to go for that particular line again.
Everyone was totally gobsmacked by Miller actually winning the primary - they'd mostly thought that they were just voting against Ms. Nepotistic (Not Hyperbole - she was literally appointed to office by her dad) Washington-As-Usual. And then the Democrats crossed the aisle en masse to support her, while Miller came across as a kookball even by Tea Party standards, in a state where the Republican Party hasn't even reached the Reagan revolution.
RE the theory of Trump being a secret liberal, I've actually pondered a conspiracy theory myself but of a different stripe:
Basically,I wonder if he does stupid things so that other Republicans are able to call him out and look good by comparison. So like his remarks against Mc Cain and his new thing against Megyn Kelly. Especially with the latter because it allows Republicans to look pro-woman. And it isn't really acknowledged that the Republicans calling him out never/rarely do so against comparably offensive comments against liberals by himself or others.
Alternatively, Trump may just be a huge asshole.
edited 8th Aug '15 5:02:07 PM by Hodor2
Silasw, sorry for not replying sooner, but I'm one of those suckers who often has to work on the weekend, so this has been my first chance to respond. As you eventually noted, that map was one that I put together, and it has some touches that result from both personal biases and attempt to be as fair as possible.
So my personal bias is that despite the fact New Hampshire is always close, it's not really that much of a potential swing state, as Democrats should always have an edge of several points there. 2000 was something of an aberration, and, to some extent, backs my point about it. Bush defeated Gore by 7,000 votes or so while Nader pulled 22,000+ from Gore, so to all expectations Gore would almost certainly have won without that. (In fairness, a few votes got pulled from Bush by a minor Libertarian candidate and Pat Buchanan doing the "Reform" party, but not nearly as many.)
By the numbers, NH should be considered a potential swing state, especially given the state's receptiveness to Libertarian ideas, but I just feel that especially with the changes to the country after 9/11, the Iraq war, and the recession, it's highly unlikely to ever turn back.
Wisconsin is on the list mostly in an attempt by me to be completely fair, as state politics have taken a turn towards Republicans lately, between the election of Walker and current domination of both state chambers by Republicans. In a presidential year it can probably be counted on to go blue, but for the sake of argument, I included it in the list of ones that could be close enough to go either way.
On the other hand I think Indiana turning blue for 2008 was a freak happening that won't be repeated soon. It's easy to forget now that 2008 was a major wave year for Dems, and I included the state of North Carolina which they flipped in 2008 because it remained very close in 2012, whereas in Indiana Romney beat Obama by a very healthy margin, (10 or 11%, iirc) and I think that Indiana is going to stay in that range for awhile.
Of course what everyone thinks is a swing state is a little different. As a for example, for many election cycles Republicans have kept salivating over the thought of getting Pennsylvania in their grasp, and it's easy to see why it teases them so, since so much of it is rural, and Penn has a long history of electing a number of Republican officials. So, ever since the end of the Reagan era Republicans have been convincing themselves that they're just on the edge of taking the state... but then in every presidential year they send the Republican presidential candidate packing. Dems have won Penn in every presidential cycle since 1992, and it's only gone for Reps 3 times since 1960. A guy I know who participates on the politics threads of another forum I'm on says that Penn is essentially fool's gold for Republicans, and I think it may just be a lesson they're finally starting to learn, because they've sunk a lot of resources trying to win it over the years to no avail.
The Senate is an area that concerns me, as I think the best Dems can possibly do is 51, so it's likely to either be split or remain slightly in favor of Republicans. I have heard some interesting rumbling about Dems rolling out new candidates in certain states including Pennsylvania, but have to wait for more details on that.
| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |Not really, 2010 only saw a 6 seat swing, now three of those I see going back but Pensalvania was only Dem in 2010 due to a Republican defection, North Dakota seems to be holding solid Red and I can't find numbers on Indiana.
Plus, 5 wins would put the Dems at 51. Now Ohio and Florida are also swings but who knows which way they will go.
Though Republican primary bullshit in either Alaska or Arizona could cause something weird to happen.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranThe Democrats need four seats, not five - a split Senate goes to the VP. (If we get a Republican President, a Democratic Senate is unlikely.)
And Indiana is one of the redder states in the Union. I doubt it's really up for grabs, given that they're the state that made headlines with RELIGIOUS FREEDOM TO HATE GAYS.
edited 8th Aug '15 8:19:58 PM by Ramidel
Texas judge sentences man to marry his girlfriend
or go to jail. And then write bible verses on top of that. And embarrassed his girlfriend in the court for good measure. Of course it's utterly contrary to the entire Bill of Rights, but this is Texas!
Just to keep things balanced, there's apparently been some high-profile liberal on liberal clashing going on, with Black Lives Matter activists hijacking speeches Bernie Sanders was trying to give
.
McConnell vows no government shutdown over Planned Parenthood.
That's not going to stop the Tea Party base, nor Cruz if he wants to get some brownie points in.
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."

The Koch brothers at least don't like Trump, but there are too many people in the primary for them to effectively support. But know they've realized that the Tea Party they created is completely out of control.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.