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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#98051: Aug 8th 2015 at 3:35:10 AM

@The Wanderer Interesting numbers there, they almost match mine but don't. Do you know the logic behind the map? Why is Wisconsin a swing when it's gone Dem 4 times in a row? Why are Indiana and Nebraska's 2nd Republican when they swung for the Dems in 2008 (like North Carolina did)? Why is New Hampshire Dem when it went Republican in 2000?

I've got Wisconsin as a Dem solid, which puts it for the Dems what Montana and Missouri are for the Republicans. I'd say that the Dems are more likely to win Missouri (Rep win last 4 elections, with 3 of those being with over 50% (but bellow 55%) of the vote, then the Reps Wisconsin (Dem win last 4 elections, with 1 of those being with over 55% (but bellow 60%) and another with over 50% (but bellow 55%)).

Hold on, the linked map is one you made right? Cus the site's base map seems to agree with me on New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

Still in the end we're in agreement.

As for the Senate, I've got numbers on that to if people want them, it's 34 seats up with the Republicans being on the defensive (24 Rep seats up to 10 Dem seats) and the Dems only needing to win 4 seats to get a 50-50 split. And I've got the Illinois and Wisconsin seats as likely to go from Rep to Dem, with Arkansas leaning Dem, meaning the Dems just need to pick up one of the toss ups of: Florida, Ohio, Indiana. If the Dems do real good they could grab Pennsylvania or Alaska (Aska is so weird I can't make predictions on it, as it may well be a 3 way race).

I've got more numbers and explanations for each senate race if people want them.

Edit: I'd failed to account for some local factors and changing in polling numbers for my senate stuff, now updated.

edited 8th Aug '15 4:40:36 AM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
AngelicBraeburn from Eccentric California Since: Jan, 2015
#98052: Aug 8th 2015 at 4:46:20 AM

Erick Erickson Disinvites Trump from Conservative Gathering Due to Megyn Kelly Remarks.

The thing that always struck me about Trump is that he could have been serious presidential candidate. But while his ego is his biggest advantage (it's the reason why so many people know him), it is also his biggest weakness.

edited 8th Aug '15 4:57:01 AM by AngelicBraeburn

The artist formally known as Deviant Braeburn
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#98053: Aug 8th 2015 at 5:16:53 AM

I've met Erick Erickson and it takes a lot to get that guy irritated.

...and now having read the comment in question, I can't blame him.

edited 8th Aug '15 5:22:38 AM by FFShinra

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#98055: Aug 8th 2015 at 6:01:39 AM

Was a guest speaker at my university. Very chill, even when my professor (former journalist) grilled him pretty harshly.

HallowHawk Since: Feb, 2013
Deadbeatloser22 from Disappeared by Space Magic (Great Old One) Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
#98057: Aug 8th 2015 at 7:02:48 AM

BBC: Donald Trump axed from event over Megyn Kelly blood comment

A major US conservative forum has dropped Donald Trump as a speaker, saying it was unacceptable for him to suggest that a journalist was tough on him because she was menstruating.

Mr Trump said Megyn Kelly of Fox News "had blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever".

Ms Kelly challenged him on remarks he made about women during a TV debate.

"Yup. That tasted purple."
TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#98058: Aug 8th 2015 at 8:30:37 AM

Clearly, Trump is just looking for an excuse to claim that the party is picking on him so he can run third party.

Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#98059: Aug 8th 2015 at 8:31:05 AM

It's a liberal media conspiracy! Why aren't you a real conservative, Erickson?

(this is great. Large section of voters who are bashing everyone who isn't fellating Trump as a RINO).

Ekuran Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
RavenWilder Since: Apr, 2009
#98061: Aug 8th 2015 at 9:30:14 AM

Y'know, with some of Trump's comments about health care and some other stuff, even if he got the nomination and lost, the Republican Party could still potentially paint his failure as "not being conservative enough".

TheHandle United Earth from Stockholm Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
United Earth
#98062: Aug 8th 2015 at 9:38:31 AM

"Blood out of her eyes! Blood out of her wherever!" That is memetic gold. /b/ must love this guy.

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
Medinoc from France (Before Recorded History)
#98063: Aug 8th 2015 at 11:19:47 AM

[up]Are we sure he isn't /b/? That would explain a lot.

Edit: Imagine Howard T. Ackerman, only Anonymous phished his control interface's passwords and turned it over to the boards... And they disabled the 'democracy' option.

edited 8th Aug '15 11:32:07 AM by Medinoc

"And as long as a sack of shit is not a good thing to be, chivalry will never die."
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#98064: Aug 8th 2015 at 11:53:44 AM

Trump clarified that he meant "nose" when he said "her whatever."

This guy.

SgtRicko Since: Jul, 2009
#98065: Aug 8th 2015 at 12:02:14 PM

I'm beginning to think that bizarre conspiracy theory of Trump's entire campaign being an elaborate ruse to sabotage one of the other factions might have merit.

If Trump were to go through with the idea of making his own independent party and then attracting all the crazies, there exists a chance they might want to solidify and become a permanent, separate entity from the Republicans. Such a schism would ruin both groups for this upcoming election, but come next Congressional vote the Republican party would now have an excuse to reshape itself into something more saner and distance themselves from the newly formed "Radical" party. Same goes for the media and general public too: they'd quickly get the message that said radical party is too extreme due to all the flack coming from both parties, and then resort to supporting and praising the lesser evils of the Democrats and Republicans - no more tea party voters.

Cause as it's been pointed out by some of the posters here, Trump's actual chances of gaining the Presidency are extremely poor due to how utterly polarizing he is. Even he has to realize he's pissing off tons of vital minorities and voter bases. So aside from the possibility that he's just that stupid enough to believe he can charm the American public into voting for him or making the political landscape more favorable for his businesses, what other major reason exists?

...Then again, the fact we have such idiotic voters willing to choose this guy because of his reality TV show and tone... yeah, it's probably a bunk idea.

Would totally make Trump a real-life magnificent bastard if it were true, though.

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#98066: Aug 8th 2015 at 12:03:06 PM

I swear if Trump turns out to be an undercover liberal who's gonna martyr himself to save America...

edited 8th Aug '15 12:03:32 PM by LeGarcon

Oh really when?
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#98067: Aug 8th 2015 at 12:05:44 PM

The hero we deserve, not the hero we need, etc.

Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#98068: Aug 8th 2015 at 12:16:57 PM

Funny as that would be I hope that's not the case. It would basically prove the conspiracy theory that liberals are secretly planting people to undermine conservatives.

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#98069: Aug 8th 2015 at 12:17:38 PM

Trump's not a liberal. He's just very egotistical. He wants to be president because he's Donald Trump goddamnit, and he thinks he'll get there by raw force of personality.

But, here's the thing: BECAUSE of that raw force of personality, he ... oddly enough seems to be immune to some of the affinity fraud crap you see in a lot of right wing economics. He's pretty horrible in a lot of ways regarding his view of other countries and minorities especially, but as I've said before, he's actually pretty moderate on economic issues, and flipflops about whether he approves of single-payer healthcare.

I get the sense that Trump doesn't care about the right versus left crap, and he's so rich he doesn't care too much about whether the political system benefits him personally. He's a buffoon, but his buffoonery is somewhat refreshing in the way it manifests itself.

SciFiSlasher from Absolutely none of your business. Since: Dec, 2011 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
#98070: Aug 8th 2015 at 12:24:09 PM

Why the fuck is it that being a nice, decent, likable human being is considered "politically correct" by Trump?

And why, oh why, do people think Fox was putting out a hit on Trump? Oh no, they asked him tough questions! It's okay, Donnie, they'll be nicer next time! They'll ask what your favorite color is! Motherfucking crybaby.

edited 8th Aug '15 12:24:19 PM by SciFiSlasher

"Somehow the hated have to walk a tightrope, while those who hate do not."
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#98071: Aug 8th 2015 at 12:25:46 PM

That's just how the Right thinks.

Oh really when?
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#98072: Aug 8th 2015 at 12:55:15 PM

I'll laugh my ass off if the CNN debate is nicer to him than the Fox one was.

I practically choked last night when Michele Bachmann of all people said CNN was a fair place to debate.

speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#98073: Aug 8th 2015 at 2:49:00 PM

[up][up][up] Indeed. It's not being politically correct to observe the Golden Rule.

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#98074: Aug 8th 2015 at 3:48:58 PM

@Silas: Alaska is a Republican lock in 2016; another three-way race is highly unlikely unless the Kochs are even more reality-proof than they seem.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#98075: Aug 8th 2015 at 3:51:48 PM

I just loved that Trump was so crazy he drove Fox News to carry out in air fact checking.

But as for the why of Trump running, ego. He wants everyone to know who he is, he wants everyone to run around reacting to what he does, he wants to prove that he's the biggest and the toughest kid on the block, he wants to shout his opinion at the nation and make it listen,

He can even want all of that and be smart enough to realise he can't actually win, or he might be deluded enough to think that he is going to get to put TRUMP in big flashing letters on the White House.

That or it's all a con. Sure he's using his own money, for now, once the race narrows he's going to have all sorts of campaign organisations set up just for the republican primary, if he wins that he will have tons of campaign money coming his way for an actual election (he might get that even if he loses and runs third party). How much of that money do you think he could pocket? Probably a lot.

[up] I refuse on principle to think that Koch and the Tea Party are anything but crazy enough to force another three way race.

edited 8th Aug '15 3:53:10 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran

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