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Gabrael from My musings Since: Nov, 2011 Relationship Status: Is that a kind of food?
#98026: Aug 7th 2015 at 6:01:22 PM

[up][up] Faith is a luxury of the secure.

[up] I am afraid more that Bush or Christie will start taking up some of the more radical rhetoric on top of their already distructive ideals in order to garnish support from Trump and the other outliers.

NPR was discussing that very issue the other day.

"Psssh. Even if you could catch a miracle on a picture any person would probably delete it to make space for more porn." - Aszur
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#98027: Aug 7th 2015 at 6:18:59 PM

[up] The polls have Clinton winning by 14.8% (the most against any Republican) if she faces Trump and that's the national average. When you factor in electoral math it's very hard to the Republicans to win the White House. Going by states that have voted the same way for the last 4 presidential elections the Republicans have 179 safe electoral votes to the 242 safe Democrat electoral votes.

A Republican White House win requires a sweep of pretty much all the swing states, a Democrat win needs just 28 electoral votes from the following states that either swung even (2 times Rep 2 times Dem) or swung Dem (1 time Rep 3 times Dem) the last 4 presidential elections.

Florida (29EV), New Hampshire (4EV), New Mexico (5EV), Iowa (6EV), Colorado (9EV), Virginia (13EV), Nevada (6EV), Ohio (18EV).

Edit: As for Bush and such taking Trump rhetoric, they don't need to, the Republican primary is pretty much Trump V everyone else. Which means Trump is actually losing with his 25% support, because once the field narrows almost all of the floating support is going to fold behind the remaining 'mainstream' candidate. Trump's got all the support he's going to get.

Plus even if they do adopt his rhetoric, it will just poison them come the election, Trump's mad hate boner isn't gonna fly with the electorate, especially coming from someone who's not Trump himself (also a Trump third party run woudl pretty much make everything go perfectly for the Dems).

edited 7th Aug '15 6:26:34 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
nervmeister Since: Oct, 2010
#98028: Aug 7th 2015 at 6:22:38 PM

I say let Trump run. Despite his dickery, I cant help but appreciate his straightforwardness unlike most politicians.

edited 7th Aug '15 6:25:05 PM by nervmeister

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#98029: Aug 7th 2015 at 6:48:01 PM

I must admit it is really refreshing to see someone who's so openly hateful. I was getting tired of dog whistles.

Oh really when?
TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#98030: Aug 7th 2015 at 6:52:36 PM

I kind of like Trump because his head is soooooo far up his ass on the things his head is up his ass on, but there's a few issues where he's better than any other Republican and it's like "Hmm... are foreign relations that important?"

Yes, yes they are, let's not elect Trump.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#98031: Aug 7th 2015 at 7:05:54 PM

Speaking of the Trump, he just said that Megyn Kelly (who confronted him about sexist remarks he made in the past, to which he responded "lol politicalcorrectness") was on her period during last night's debate.

http://thinkprogress.org/election/2015/08/07/3689580/trump-says-female-moderator-who-confronted-him-about-sexism-was-on-her-period/

This guy can't go a day without acting like scum.

edited 7th Aug '15 7:06:07 PM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#98032: Aug 7th 2015 at 7:19:59 PM

Megyn Kelly is gonna eat him for lunch over the next few months. She's not to be trifled with.

Any predictions who drops out first of the 17? For me, I hope it's Jindal.

BAFFU Since: Dec, 2012
#98033: Aug 7th 2015 at 7:26:07 PM

Yea and Republicans will side with Trump.

Megan Kelly is the new Rachel Maddow.

probablyinsane Since: Oct, 2011 Relationship Status: I LOVE THIS DOCTOR!
#98034: Aug 7th 2015 at 7:26:15 PM

Some of those blue wall states have Republican senator or governor (how'd that happen?).

I'd bet on Clinton, but I wouldn't say it's a guaranteed win, and Trump on Rank 4 in betting sites has made me choke instead of chuckling.

Plants are aliens, and fungi are nanomachines.
AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#98035: Aug 7th 2015 at 7:54:20 PM

The Democrats are holding their debates off for a couple of months. Possibly to just let us all be aghast at the Republicans for a while? Well, the Republicans need the wittle the field down a lot more anyway.

Maddow pointed out last night how the stadium was empty for the first set of candidates. And that it was really weird. There definitely would have been an audience for that debate but Fox apparently didn't sell tickets/let anyone in for that one? And repeatedly televised this fact.

TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#98036: Aug 7th 2015 at 7:59:08 PM

Why does everyone think that the democrats have some sort of shoe in? Or that Trump or any of the other batshits don't have a chance of being elected?

In my case, math.

No, seriously. Doing some number crunching with the current political landscape, Democrats have a built in advantage for electing the president. I'm going to be doing a lot of referencing with historical info courtesy of the site 270towin.com, so bear with me.

Before we get to any of the battleground/swing states, the absolute sure thing states put Democrats at a total of 236 electoral votes to 191 for Republicans, with 111 remaining up for grab. In case anyone has forgotten, as the name of the site says, 270 electoral votes is what you need to become president. So out out of that remaining 111, a Democrat needs 34 to win, while a Republican needs almost 80, which is a tough pull, especially since the majority of the remaining states to win have gone Democrat in recent years.

Here's a map with the sure things.

The states remaining are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and then the big boys of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina.

Out of those remaining states these are at least relative tossups:

Florida: Is always a nailbiter, and in the last 4 elections has gone R twice, and D twice, with the caveat that the 2000 election with Bush vs Gore was complete BS and all but rigged by the state officials. It's generally agreed that as long as turnout is good Dems have the slightest of edges, but as a result Republicans put a lot of effort into holding onto it and suppressing D voters. Toss-up, and its 29 electoral votes could swing either way.

North Carolina: Will probably be red. Obama became the first Dem to win there by a hair in 2008, and Romney won it back by in 2012, but again by a hair. Reps should have an advantage, but the state may also have a backlash again some Rep policies that have been going in place since the 2010 and 2012 elections. But odds are that it goes Republican.

Virginia: In recent years has been pulling slightly Democratic, due to being the home of a lot of govt workers who commute into DC. Obama won it by almost identical margins in '08 and '12. It's a tough fight, but it's there to be had for Democrats, and they should have a slight edge there.

Ohio: The true bellweather state, it always seems to go with the eventual winner. Went for Reagan twice, Bush I, Clinton both times, Bush II both times, (although under slightly dubious circumstances in 2004), and Obama twice. Obama did win it slightly more solidly than Bush did, but that's an up grab state either way.

And nearly all the others have been pulling Democrat in recent years.

Iowa went for Gore by a hair in 2000, for Bush by a hair in '04, but was won by Obama both times by healthy margins of 10% and 6%, respectively.

Wisconsin has gone Dem in all 4 of the past elections, and while 2000 and '04 were razor close, Obama took the state by 14% and 7%.

New Mexico has gone D 3 of the last 4 times, and Obama trounced McCain and Romney by margins of 15% and 10%.

Colorado was fairly solidly red until 2008, but Obama took it fairly handily, (by 9% and 5.5%) and changes in population and policies, (see legalized MJ for example) mean it's likely to stay blue.

Nevada: Has traditionally been a very close fight. Bush won it by a hair both times, but Obama pounded out more solid wins by 12% and 7%, and it should continue to lean slightly Democratic.

As long as those five continue to hold Democratic, it doesn't matter what the tossups of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia do. Democrats have already crossed the 270 mark. And even if one or two of those break off and we give NC to Republicans as I expect it to go, Republicans still have a massive uphill battle to take the electoral votes they need.

If we leave things in the toughest scenario for Democrats, where Nevada and Iowa are undecided and up for grabs, North Carolina is red, and Ohio, Florida, and Virginia are too close to call, the map looks like this with Democrats sitting at 260, Republicans down at 206, and a mere 72 votes left to be decided.

Republicans would have to take nearly of the electoral votes left, and in doing so they would have to reverse some major gains and inroads that the Dems have made in the last two elections. Long story short, the Dems have a much easier road to reach 270, while Republicans have to pull off a whole series of unlikely victories or uphill battles to do it.

The only thing giving me agita is the fact that there's still more than a year to go, and while I think Dems have it in the bag as long as there are no major catastrophes and the country continues slow and steady improvement, that's forever and a day in political terms, and more than enough time to turn 7 years of slow gains into the crapper at just the wrong time.

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#98037: Aug 7th 2015 at 8:01:17 PM

I like that my state can go either way. Actually makes it feel like my vote matters.

Oh really when?
BonsaiForest Since: Jan, 2001
#98038: Aug 7th 2015 at 8:02:53 PM

If the Democrats win, it would go against what I've heard as the supposed truth that no party wins three times in a row.

But then, a lot of supposed "truths" can change at any time. After all, Donald Trump's popularity with Republicans was very low, then suddenly very high. I wonder what it'll be now that the debate is over.

Gabrael from My musings Since: Nov, 2011 Relationship Status: Is that a kind of food?
#98039: Aug 7th 2015 at 8:05:07 PM

[up][up][up]Thanks. To you and to the other troopers that have broken this down for me. I appreciate your efforts and I do learn from you guys.

It is interesting to hear the disconnect between the rhetoric and the numbers. My hope is that people in purple states won't take it for granted and miss the polls.

edited 7th Aug '15 8:05:46 PM by Gabrael

"Psssh. Even if you could catch a miracle on a picture any person would probably delete it to make space for more porn." - Aszur
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#98040: Aug 7th 2015 at 9:08:07 PM

The thing is that the parties don't let them. I've seen turnout drives before, these guys are persistent.

BonsaiForest Since: Jan, 2001
#98041: Aug 7th 2015 at 9:14:00 PM

Let's hope the Democrats are just as persistent, if not moreso, than the Republicans.

Artificius from about a foot and a half away from a monitor. Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Norwegian Wood
#98042: Aug 7th 2015 at 9:29:41 PM

[up][up][up][up]It's not true historically. When it does happen though, it tends to signal a major political shift. The Federalists lost it to the Democratic-Republicans for seven cycles until Andrew Jackson happened and shot the other half of the party. Then the Civil War erupted right out of the Whigs' chest and we got a sixteen year block of Republicans after the somewhat ironically named National Union party dissolved. The Republicans got it again for four terms when Progressivism became a thing. The Democrats won it five times in a row under Roosevelt and Truman because an unrestricted free market and a deeply divisive war wrecked the social order. If Hillary or Bernie wins it this and another time, it might be said that they heralded the beginning of internet collectivism or some other thing we're just beginning to glimpse.

edited 7th Aug '15 9:36:18 PM by Artificius

"I have no fear, for fear is the little death that kills me over and over. Without fear, I die but once."
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#98043: Aug 7th 2015 at 9:41:44 PM

Yup, streaks can be quite common if we're in the midst of a transformational event in national politics, which seems to be the case, although it's far too early to say that conclusively.

BonsaiForest Since: Jan, 2001
#98044: Aug 7th 2015 at 9:58:27 PM

Internet collectivism? Just wondering what you mean by that.

Artificius from about a foot and a half away from a monitor. Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Norwegian Wood
#98045: Aug 7th 2015 at 10:20:03 PM

I was kind of imagining a collection of people forming an echo chamber that made extremists, and therefore the modern Republican party, unelectable on a national level. When someone says something stupid or repugnant, we link it. Additionally, posting up a worthy project or an issue that requires attention and capital can create a massive surge of support.

edited 7th Aug '15 10:32:00 PM by Artificius

"I have no fear, for fear is the little death that kills me over and over. Without fear, I die but once."
probablyinsane Since: Oct, 2011 Relationship Status: I LOVE THIS DOCTOR!
#98046: Aug 7th 2015 at 10:30:32 PM

I wish it was working more. Right now, the Republicans is majority-control of the Senate and Congress.

Plants are aliens, and fungi are nanomachines.
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#98047: Aug 7th 2015 at 10:36:32 PM

There's really not much we can do about that though, they've rigged it so they'll always have them.

When are the lines being redrawn? Not for a while I don't think. Someone mentioned 2023 before.

edited 7th Aug '15 10:36:54 PM by LeGarcon

Oh really when?
Canid117 Since: Oct, 2010 Relationship Status: Hello, I love you
#98048: Aug 7th 2015 at 10:59:13 PM

The lines get redrawn with the Census which happens every ten years. So in 2020.

"War without fire is like sausages without mustard." - Jean Juvénal des Ursins
storyyeller More like giant cherries from Appleloosa Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: RelationshipOutOfBoundsException: 1
More like giant cherries
#98049: Aug 7th 2015 at 11:12:27 PM

The thing that really worries me is that 2014. The Republicans did much better than they should have, and it's not clear to me why, which means there's the potential risk of a repeat.

I still think the Democrats are very likely to win the presidency, but I'm less sure than I was a year ago.

Blind Final Fantasy 6 Let's Play
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#98050: Aug 7th 2015 at 11:42:48 PM

and it's not clear to me why
General calculus is "The Democratic Candidates were unwilling to support Democrat mainstream positions because of discomfort with the President" and "Republicans get their guys out" and "Democrat voters stay at home since the Democrats keep shitlording on non Presidential years."


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