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Trivialis Since: Oct, 2011
#47976: Jan 23rd 2013 at 8:44:29 PM

@Rationalinsanity

Um... real or hoax? I hope it's the latter.

edited 23rd Jan '13 8:46:21 PM by Trivialis

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#47977: Jan 23rd 2013 at 9:05:25 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/23/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-test/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Probably just bluster but...

I assume that being able to hit the US is a long term goal. A very long term one, given their current record of firing rockets into the Yellow Sea.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
TheStarshipMaxima NCC - 1701 Since: Jun, 2009
NCC - 1701
#47978: Jan 23rd 2013 at 9:08:14 PM

Anyway, while we don't have much right (as I understand international law) to decide someone can't have nukes, we do have legal methods to push them in a certain direction. Ah, politics.

Or 'Politics is the continuation of war by other means,' basically?

@Fighteer and Potatoes - I may be reading you wrong but....are you suggesting Iran is just insane enough to pick a fight with an enemy they know has nukes and not care that they'll all be blown off the face of the Earth??

It was an honor
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#47979: Jan 23rd 2013 at 9:10:32 PM

Maybe not directly but they might give a device to a group that would. And that would have global implications, none of them good.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#47980: Jan 23rd 2013 at 9:36:02 PM

I wouldn't consider it the continuation of war. I'd consider it using other non violent methods to try and prevent a war.

PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#47981: Jan 23rd 2013 at 9:49:16 PM

@Fighteer and Potatoes - I may be reading you wrong but....are you suggesting Iran is just insane enough to pick a fight with an enemy they know has nukes and not care that they'll all be blown off the face of the Earth??
Depends how sane the Ayatollah is. I still expect if they try to use nukes, it'll be through, I dunno, funneling them to Al-Qaeda or one of the Palestinian terrorist groups. Ideology makes you do funny things. But yes, I do expect them to pick a fight, since they're one of the two major Islamic regional powers in the Middle East, along with Saudi Arabia. And it's in their interest to have terrorists use nukes.

deathpigeon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: One True Dodecahedron
#47982: Jan 23rd 2013 at 9:52:45 PM

Depends how sane the Ayatollah is.

Nope! The Ayatollah actually has no real power. He's more of a figurehead than anything.

Lascoden ... from Missouri, USA Since: Nov, 2012
...
#47983: Jan 23rd 2013 at 9:55:54 PM

[up]So, who holds the real power in Iran? I've always been confused by their government's structure.

boop
deathpigeon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: One True Dodecahedron
#47984: Jan 23rd 2013 at 9:58:47 PM

I don't actually know. I know that it isn't the Ayatollah, but not who it actually is.

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#47985: Jan 23rd 2013 at 10:00:55 PM

@deathpigeon: Wrong. The Ayatollah controls the Revolutionary Guard. Among other things, he and not Ahmadinejad is the one who needs to sign off on the use of any Iranian nukes, should they be developed.

Anyway, the current Ayatollah is a rather savvy politician; to the best of my knowledge, he's deliberately using Ahmadinejad as a big noisy lightning rod while he actually gets business done under the table. If anything, the current regime of sanctions strengthen his control because they leak like a wet sieve, allowing him to pacify dissident elements and reward elites with his control over Western goods. Hell, even Iran's insane policies on sexual activity are part of his social-control and diplomatic toolkit.

deathpigeon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: One True Dodecahedron
#47986: Jan 23rd 2013 at 10:06:38 PM

...So it would only be the Ayatollah? No two person switch thing like we have for our nukes, or something?

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#47987: Jan 23rd 2013 at 10:15:04 PM

I don't know specifically how they run their nuclear program, but I do know that the Ayatollah is the one who it ultimately answers to. Again, the Revolutionary Guard (as opposed to the army) is under the Ayatollah's office, and Iranian strategic weapons belong to the Guard and not the army.

edited 23rd Jan '13 10:15:48 PM by Ramidel

deathpigeon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: One True Dodecahedron
Lascoden ... from Missouri, USA Since: Nov, 2012
...
#47989: Jan 23rd 2013 at 10:16:57 PM

What role do the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts play? Reading their description, they sound powerful, but what do they actually get to do?

boop
Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#47990: Jan 23rd 2013 at 10:24:09 PM

The Guardian Council functions, firstly, as the Supreme Court (if a law passed by the Majilis is not in line with sharia, they have veto power). Secondly, they have to sign off on all Parliamentary or Assembly candidates (this is a power they've arrogated to themselves and has not been challenged). They're a powerful group, but they answer to the Supreme Leader (who appoints half of the Council personally).

The Assembly of Experts formally elect the Supreme Leader and have the power to depose him. This has never been done; as I understand it, the Assembly is essentially a rubber-stamp body for the Supreme Leader. To get in, you need to be vetted by the GC, so if some Expert actually has an independent thought, it clearly means that his knowledge of Islamic jurisprudence is faulty and he's not qualified for his post.

Lascoden ... from Missouri, USA Since: Nov, 2012
...
#47991: Jan 23rd 2013 at 10:30:07 PM

[up]Ok, I think I understand that much. Seems the Supreme Leader has a nice little system set up for himself. So, what does the President do? Just spout off nonsense while the real leaders do their jobs?

boop
Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#47992: Jan 23rd 2013 at 10:42:32 PM

Formally, he's the head of government and the ministers answer to him (the Minister of Defense and Minister of Intelligence have crossed chains of command, but he's the one who appoints them; customarily, he consults with the Supreme Leader, though). Rafsanjani was actually a pretty damn powerful President and able to control the army and keep the Guard out of politics during his time; Ahmadinejad...yeah, pretty much.

Just as a little tidbit, Ahmadinejad came from the Guard's political wing. The Guard have seized on this.

edited 23rd Jan '13 10:43:18 PM by Ramidel

Lascoden ... from Missouri, USA Since: Nov, 2012
...
#47993: Jan 23rd 2013 at 10:52:30 PM

[up]Alright, I think I understand a bit more. Thanks for the little lesson, really helped clear some things up. smile

boop
drunkscriblerian Street Writing Man from Castle Geekhaven Since: Oct, 2010 Relationship Status: In season
Street Writing Man
#47995: Jan 23rd 2013 at 11:37:42 PM

I hope he will be less dismissive of video games as an art form this time around. I mean, I like the guy...but apparently just because he doesn't understand video games he gets to blame them for America's troubles.

Come on Joe, people were killing each other before consoles were invented. Don't go for the stupid answer.

If I were to write some of the strange things that come under my eyes they would not be believed. ~Cora M. Strayer~
Pykrete NOT THE BEES from Viridian Forest Since: Sep, 2009
NOT THE BEES
#47996: Jan 24th 2013 at 12:09:35 AM

I'll be surprised if he doesn't go along with the scapegoat. Pleasantly surprised, but surprised nonetheless. There's already been such a vast body of research on the topic that the only reason they could possibly have dumped more into it is if it didn't give the answer they wanted.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#47997: Jan 24th 2013 at 5:51:58 AM

Phillip DeFranco, whom I watch on You Tube [1], is apparently going to be interviewing Biden as part of this process. It's kind of crazy when you realize that someone you subscribe to on YT is swimming with the Vice President. It gives you a sense of just how far new media have come.

Phil is somewhat pro-gun, which is one of the few gripes I have about him, but still. Good times for us 'netophiles.

edited 24th Jan '13 5:53:29 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Belian In honor of my 50lb pup from 42 Since: Jan, 2001
In honor of my 50lb pup
#47998: Jan 24th 2013 at 6:59:14 AM

[up]Makes me remember all those adds Tobuscus did for WallMart. Or The Young Turks getting onto Current (TV station).

edited 24th Jan '13 6:59:25 AM by Belian

Yu hav nat sein bod speeling unntil know. (cacke four undersandig tis)the cake is a lie!
RadicalTaoist scratching at .8, just hopin' from the #GUniverse Since: Jan, 2001
scratching at .8, just hopin'
#47999: Jan 24th 2013 at 7:18:05 AM

Fighteer: I don't buy the argument on Iran. The "wipe countries off the map" conjecture was a deliberate mistranslation by Western media sources, and as hostility towards neighbours/extension of hegemony goes, Iran is nicer than Israel or Pakistan. Hell, it's arguably nicer than the States. If Iran joins the nuclear club, it will probably behave better (see here and search for "the mad dictator").

Iran is a threat to Western hegemony in the region. You have to view Western hegemony in the region as intrinsically good to be threatened by Iran. (Though it's internal human rights issues are a big problem yes.)

Share it so that people can get into this conversation, 'cause we're not the only ones who think like this.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#48000: Jan 24th 2013 at 7:23:21 AM

Taoist, there's an element of Might Makes Right in all international affairs, plus First Mover Advantage. It's hard to objectively evaluate the benefit/risk of Iran acquiring nukes when I'm an American and therefore support American interests. As far as I am concerned, the world needs no more nuclear powers, and preferably fewer.

The biggest risk isn't so much that Iran will just decide to drop the bomb on Israel; they aren't that crazy. The risk is that one or more of the terrorist groups (excuse me, "freedom fighters") that Iran openly sponsors will "acquire" a bomb or two and act without any of the political or moral restraints of their patrons.

I'd love to be shut of the Middle East and let them solve their problems by themselves, but there are two problems with that: Realpolitik, and the fact that we've already been involved in their problems and as such bear some measure of responsibility for them.

edited 24th Jan '13 7:23:53 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

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