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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#45251: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:03:51 PM

[up]What Kostya said. You're basically misinterpreting or getting wrong a good chunk of information. The Tea Party newbies are still powerful enough right now that they can and are causing a lot of trouble. And they're not going to let go without a lot of outside resistance. Going over the cliff right now is the best bet for that. But even with that, I highly doubt they're suddenly going to be good and quiet. The blocking itself isn't going to stop any time soon.

Baff Since: Jul, 2011
#45252: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:06:38 PM

How are you so sure I am flipping them?

I just go by what they themselves said. To quote Slate:

"The roll calls were scheduled to take place seven or eight hours after the press conference. That suggested that Cantor needed more time to round up Republican support. And yet one hour later, a reporter began a question to White House spokesman Jay Carney this way: “Majority Leader Cantor says he has enough votes to pass Speaker Boehner’s plan B.” The conditional—“going to have”—had been transformed, by an inattentive observer, into the confident “has.”"

"Cantor’s party rushed through some meaningless bills (S. 925, “to designate Mt. Andrea Lawrence”), then went into recess, presumably to wrangle votes. They seemed to be around 22 votes short, when 23 “nays” would kill the bill."

In other words, out of 230 something Republican representatives, only 22 where more conservative than Bohenner.

When they met behind closed doors, Boehner told his members that they were done, and could go home for Christmas."

edited 28th Dec '12 8:11:54 PM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.
Thorn14 Gunpla is amazing! Since: Aug, 2010
Gunpla is amazing!
#45253: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:19:17 PM

You realize that going over the fiscal cliff involves much more than tax increases, right?

People saying "Screw the other guys, lets just go over the cliff" are part of the problem right now, both sides.

Baff Since: Jul, 2011
#45254: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:24:05 PM

[up]

This is the 3rd time Republicans take the nation hostage.

You need to call their bluff sometime.

Republicans have abussed the sytem long enough. They only even have such power in the house because they cheat and lie. The time to be nice about this facts is over.

edited 28th Dec '12 8:25:41 PM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.
Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#45255: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:25:08 PM

[up][up]Do you honestly think any compromise won't also gut social programs? They are getting cut no matter what. We might as well raise taxes and put our foot down and convince them to stop holding the nation hostage in the process.

edited 28th Dec '12 8:25:33 PM by Kostya

Baff Since: Jul, 2011
#45256: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:28:25 PM

[up]

Unlike the media would have you think, many Conservative representatives have a very moderate base.

The media would have you think half republicans are hard core tea partiers, but the number of hardcore tea party representatives its only 22. Thats a very low number since this is the house we are talking about.

It wouldnt hurt them all that much if the democrats said "fine, run over the fiscal ciff if you want".

Out of 208, democrats need what? 30?

edited 28th Dec '12 8:29:33 PM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.
Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#45257: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:29:24 PM

They have voted in lock step so far. Why would they do this now? They want to keep their jobs which means they're going to stay in line.

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#45258: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:29:28 PM

What's relevant isn't just what happens if we go over the cliff, it's what our position looks like going over the cliff versus what it looks like if we do 100% of what republicans want.

Also note, 22 votes is significant. If Boehner doesn't have the "majority of the majority," he needs to have a plan that can appeal to at least some democrats.

Baff Since: Jul, 2011
#45259: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:30:57 PM

[up]

Its significat for Cantor (the speaker of the house), not for Harry Reid.

[up][up]

because that would imply votting against tax exemption for 99% of Americans.

edited 28th Dec '12 8:31:57 PM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.
AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#45260: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:33:27 PM

Thorn, it's been described as a series of bumps rather than a cliff. The idea that all things halt has been perpetuated largely by the Right to create a sense of urgency. The cuts and things that will take place won't take place all on January 1, 2, or 3, or even within the month of January. The expiration dates and the like are staggered for a lot of these programs.

Which is why Krugman and the like are telling us it's not quite so bad as it sounds. Going over the cliff shows the Democrats won't take quite so much of the Republican's crap, and they can avert and reverse a lot of the problems. Again, provided this makes the Republicans more tractable, with all the public blame going on them according to polls.

Again, Baff, getting that thirty is harder than you seem to acknowledge. Seriously, don't downplay the difficulty of getting someone to vote across the isle in this current political environment. Right now, Republican representatives are not really voting in line with what their constituents want, but with what their party leaders and big business wants. This has been a problem we've talked about repeatedly.

edited 28th Dec '12 8:34:43 PM by AceofSpades

Baff Since: Jul, 2011
#45261: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:35:31 PM

[up]

No one is saying its not hard to convince republicans. Its pretty fricking hard.

So hard in fact that you have to blackmail them by showing them democrats are ready to run over the fiscal cliff. Thats pretty drastic.

edited 28th Dec '12 8:48:39 PM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.
PhilippeO Since: Oct, 2010
#45262: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:37:05 PM

" Unlike the media would have you think, many Conservative representatives have a very moderate base. "

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/27/as-swing-districts-dwindle-can-a-divided-house-stand/

Not sure this is True. Nate Silver says at least 180 are come from area that strongly GOP. i do think for Democrats to back down from fiscal cliff is a mistake, it show they can be intimidated and their own supporter won't forgive them.

Baff Since: Jul, 2011
#45263: Dec 28th 2012 at 8:40:18 PM

[up]

That leaves 50 representatives to deal with. But if the democrats followed trough I think you'd get up to 150 something republican votes.

They would only be votting on tax cuts, and they wouldnt be actually creating new spending.

edited 28th Dec '12 8:43:56 PM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.
RadicalTaoist scratching at .8, just hopin' from the #GUniverse Since: Jan, 2001
scratching at .8, just hopin'
#45264: Dec 28th 2012 at 9:37:16 PM

Baff, the only Republicans they can swing would be ones willing to cross the aisle and become Democrats. For every "reasonable" Republican donor willing to tell them to compromise, there's someone like the Koch Brothers who will tell them to stand firm and be willing to pour millions of dollars into a primary challenger if they don't.

There is no future in the Republican Party for any House Representative who doesn't oppose anything and everything that might make a Democrat look potentially good anywhere ever. There really isn't. The brakes on this train have been removed.

Share it so that people can get into this conversation, 'cause we're not the only ones who think like this.
Baff Since: Jul, 2011
#45265: Dec 28th 2012 at 10:06:32 PM

[up] Even if I dont agree with that assesment, I say, lets do it anywya!

If they are not going to compromise, then inflict as much political damage on them as you can. Let the fiscal cliff expire, and then have them vote against the tax cuts before offering a compromise.Even if it hurts the country. Not to stand up to them now will make things in the future even worse.

And if they want to fillabuster have them fillabuster the old way.

Its time, quite literally, to go nuclear on the GOP.

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.
Ultrayellow Unchanging Avatar. Since: Dec, 2010
Unchanging Avatar.
#45266: Dec 28th 2012 at 10:25:27 PM

I do agree that we should return to the old-fashioned "give a speech" form of filibuster.

Except for 4/1/2011. That day lingers in my memory like...metaphor here...I should go.
Trivialis Since: Oct, 2011
#45267: Dec 28th 2012 at 10:52:36 PM

Well, it happens because the outcome is already decided. Minority filibusters, majority tries cloture vote, minority vetoes, filibuster keeps going, majority gives up on the filibustered bill because debate won't end.

It's possible to counter a filibuster by going along with the debate; whichever side that gives up talking first, the other side wins. This only works if the filibustering side has incentive to move on and discuss other bills.

RadicalTaoist scratching at .8, just hopin' from the #GUniverse Since: Jan, 2001
scratching at .8, just hopin'
#45268: Dec 28th 2012 at 11:21:14 PM

@Baff: At this point "go over the cliff and then undo the damage to the middle and lower classes" seems like the only tenable option anyways.

Share it so that people can get into this conversation, 'cause we're not the only ones who think like this.
tricksterson Never Trust from Behind you with an icepick Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
Never Trust
#45269: Dec 29th 2012 at 6:06:07 AM

While I'm not saying "going over the cliff" won't have negative consequenses I have to wonder how much both sides and the media are overhyping them. The Rs and Ds to put pressure on each other and make the other side look like the bad guys, the media because driving people into a panic is their role in society.

Trump delenda est
Baff Since: Jul, 2011
#45270: Dec 29th 2012 at 8:01:48 AM

@Toist.

I am betting dems will give in.

[up][up][up]

Thats the whole point.

Fillabuster, the old fashion way, simply means, nothing will ever get done, nothing, until there is a vote. It means that the whole legislative process has a metaphorical hearth attack.

edited 29th Dec '12 8:03:45 AM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.
Baff Since: Jul, 2011
#45271: Dec 29th 2012 at 8:07:28 AM

Also. Democrats are as bad as Republicans. This whole wiretapping thing just proves it.

edited 29th Dec '12 8:12:44 AM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.
Couchpotato20 Will kill you from Hell Since: Apr, 2011
Will kill you
#45272: Dec 29th 2012 at 8:13:43 AM

@Baff

Democrats are bad by prospect of beign whiny little bitches. The Republicans are worse for corporate ass-kissers, and bigoted towards gay marriage, and helping lower class and middle class people. There's a big difference between the two. Honestly it's better leaning towards the people who could possibly grow spines than the ones who break them (Republican) and aren't at all sympathetic about the severity of their decisions (since they aim to please their own desires and corporate friends).

edited 29th Dec '12 8:14:16 AM by Couchpotato20

"I don't give a rat's ass about going to hell. I guess it's because I feel like I'm already there." -Mugen
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#45273: Dec 29th 2012 at 8:13:54 AM

@Baff way back: Eric Cantor is not the Speaker. He's the Majority Leader.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Baff Since: Jul, 2011
#45274: Dec 29th 2012 at 8:16:28 AM

[up]

Damn. I got them mixed up... how embarassing :S

[up][up]

Of course democrats are better than republicans. But on the substantive issues, at the end of the day, they are just another front of the only real political party in the U.S, the bussiness party.

Not to say there arent principle individuals in both parties.

edited 29th Dec '12 8:21:53 AM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.
Couchpotato20 Will kill you from Hell Since: Apr, 2011
Will kill you
#45275: Dec 29th 2012 at 8:21:32 AM

@Baff

lol.

I'm not saying the government is irresponsible in their time trying to support us but either way you look at it they're the only card to play in issues we're unable to do ourselves. I mean unless there's a citizen that says that they can do a better job of getting economy back on track you can either put up or shut up.

EDIT:

lol I missed that vid

edited 29th Dec '12 8:22:03 AM by Couchpotato20

"I don't give a rat's ass about going to hell. I guess it's because I feel like I'm already there." -Mugen

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