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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#342301: Dec 6th 2020 at 10:29:25 AM

"HOW DARE you try to have hope?! HOW DARE you think that anything could ever be positive?!" is not productive.

That's not what I'm saying here, though?

IMO, there are a lot of reasons to have hope. Suburban voters traditionally have higher turnout in runoffs, and in Georgia they've just switched to being Democrats. Loeffler got battered by Collins during the primary, both of them are getting blasted with insider trading scandals, lots of people are down organizing and working to boost turnout. Many people have already registered for ballots, so clearly they're engaged.

I still think Ossoff and Warnock have at least even chances of winning their races. I just don't think "Republican voters hear election is rigged, refuse to vote" is something that's particularly likely, given past actions and current information. Like I said in my original post, I still hope it happens, though.


[down] Georgia's polls were pretty accurate, though, from what I remember. It was something like a 1-point bias towards Biden?

Edited by nova92 on Dec 6th 2020 at 10:33:37 AM

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#342302: Dec 6th 2020 at 10:32:24 AM

The thing that bothers me is that the last (November) election had a systematic error that is larger than these leads.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#342303: Dec 6th 2020 at 10:33:24 AM

These polls are tight enough (and polling unreliable enough) that the best course of action is to assume we just don't know anything about how the election will shake out, and just fight as hard as we can.

Everyone remember: You are not required to be Nostradamus. You are not required to know, definitively, what is going to occur. It is okay to act under the assumption that the future is uncertain.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Dec 6th 2020 at 10:34:13 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#342304: Dec 6th 2020 at 10:34:27 AM

[up][up]Georgia didn't have a polling error larger than those leads. Georgia had a 1-point polling error.

Edited by Gilphon on Dec 6th 2020 at 1:34:45 PM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#342305: Dec 6th 2020 at 10:38:27 AM

The polls may be less accurate for the runoff, due to varied turnout, less pollsters being active and it being a senate race as opposed to the presidential race.

I’d say Tobias has the right mindset, the races are to close to call, and short of a rapid change in numbers they’re going to remain that way.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#342306: Dec 6th 2020 at 10:38:30 AM

I agree with you there, then. Way too many variables to be certain about any outcome.


Politico: Census delay could scuttle Trump's plans to exclude immigrants

Apportionment data from the 2020 census, which determines how many House seats each state will get for the next decade, may not be delivered until after President-elect Joe Biden is inaugurated, according to documents released by the House Oversight Committee.

The Democratic majority on the committee was vague on how it received the internal documents, saying only that it obtained them from "another source" after the Trump administration declined to turn over various documents when the committee asked for them. One of the documents released by the committee, dated Nov. 27, says the "expected delivery" for that final apportionment count is Jan. 23, just days after Biden is inaugurated and President Donald Trump leaves office. Public release of the data is also scheduled for that day.

A delay in delivering the data to the White House that runs past Jan. 20 could shoot down a Trump priority: excluding, for the first time, some number of undocumented immigrants from the count. If those immigrants weren't included in the population figures used to apportion House seats, it could benefit Republicans politically, reducing representation in Democratic states and areas where there are more immigrants.


Anchorage Daily News

A recount just confirmed that Democrat Liz Snyder unseated the Republican Alaska House Minority leader, by 11 votes. This means Democrats hold 16 seats and Republicans 21, with 3 Independents. It might actually be possible to make a Dem-majority coalition again.

[down] Last time, a few Republicans joined, too. Some of them lost their primaries, one passed away, but there's a couple still left in the House.

Edited by nova92 on Dec 6th 2020 at 11:57:25 AM

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#342307: Dec 6th 2020 at 11:51:42 AM

Even if the Independents caucus with the Dems, aren't the Alaska Republicans ahead in seats?

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#342308: Dec 6th 2020 at 12:45:26 PM

[up] Alaska basically has a divided Republican Party between Moderates and Radicals. Their Governor is so Radical that it caused a lot of Republicans to rally around a Democrat-turned-Independent who became the House Majority Leader in 2018.

Meanwhile, in "Voter Fraud" news, Giuliani's star Witness in Michigan, Mellissa Carone, who yelled at Republican State Congressmen and said "All Chinese People Look Alike" to those same Congressmen is actually Mellissa Wright, a convicted criminal who sent threatening videos and texts to her Fiance's ex-wife and served 12 months probation as part of a plea deal. She's now claiming that it's her fiance who did it and that she pleaded guilty to avoid court time, which would mean either she is lying now, or lied to the courts then.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#342310: Dec 6th 2020 at 1:24:31 PM

Surprised it took this long.

i'm tired, my friend
Blueace Surrounded by weirdoes from The End Of the World Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Surrounded by weirdoes
#342311: Dec 6th 2020 at 1:26:46 PM

Did Giuliani get COVID or COVID got a case of Giuliani?

Wake me up at your own risk.
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#342312: Dec 6th 2020 at 1:32:42 PM

Yes

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#342313: Dec 6th 2020 at 2:02:53 PM

[up] x5 If I remember correctly, the now outgoing Alaskan state Speaker switched to Independent to make that collation.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Wildcard Since: Jun, 2012
#342314: Dec 6th 2020 at 2:09:33 PM

Now lets treat Giuliani liks how his master treats others "It is what it is".

clemont107 Mega Togekiss?! from Land of Missed Opportunities (Experienced, Not Yet Jaded) Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
Mega Togekiss?!
#342315: Dec 6th 2020 at 2:20:35 PM

[up]x4 If working for T*** was Rudy Moody's idea of a steady paycheck then he would be sorely mistaken. Now he has to reap the consequences of what he helped sow.

"Wow, no Mega Togekiss in Legends Z-A. Or any non-Froslass new Sinnoh Mega Evolutions. Round of applause, everybody." - Dawn
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#342316: Dec 6th 2020 at 2:28:46 PM

Okay, this is kind of hilarious. Sen. Perdue refused to debate Ossoff before the runoff, so they're holding the debate with just Ossoff. And apparently they keep on cutting back to Perdue's empty podium, continually reminding viewers that he isn't there.

Edited by nova92 on Dec 6th 2020 at 2:28:57 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#342317: Dec 6th 2020 at 2:30:29 PM

[lol] That is glorious.

Saw this on Ossoff's Twitter:

I'll be debating tomorrow.

David Perdue will be pleading the fifth.

Edited by Parable on Dec 6th 2020 at 2:31:50 AM

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#342318: Dec 6th 2020 at 2:32:08 PM

Only if it wins the Senate seat.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Wildcard Since: Jun, 2012
#342319: Dec 6th 2020 at 2:48:22 PM

I've been wondering something about a certain right wing group. Specifically Incels. For those who don't know, Incels are a group of usually males who believe that dating is unfair because they think woman are only attracted to "CHAD" essentially a muscular, popular guy who is born with model qualities and has to work very little to maintain it. Their solution to this usually invloves the government distributing "girlfriends" and rolling back woman's rights. Even with similar ideas about woman's rights most right-wing incels have to realize their CHAD mythical figure would have even more advantages in their supposed ideal society, right? My point with asking this is why this particular hate group would intersect with Right Wing American politics? There goals,(at least the ones stated out loud) seem to have some conflict.

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#342320: Dec 6th 2020 at 2:51:16 PM

> My point with asking this is why this particular hate group would intersect with Right Wing American politics? There goals,(at least the ones stated out loud) seem to have some conflict.

I have a hunch its because they see women in politics a threat,or something,hate groups aren't exactly rational so their reasons can be entirely arbitrary

Edited by Ultimatum on Dec 6th 2020 at 10:54:03 AM

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
thok That's Dr. Title, thank you! (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Non-Canon
That's Dr. Title, thank you!
#342321: Dec 6th 2020 at 2:53:16 PM

[up][up] Your first mistake was assuming consistency in the ideas of right-wing political groups.

Edited by thok on Dec 6th 2020 at 2:53:27 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#342322: Dec 6th 2020 at 2:53:19 PM

They don’t care about being equal with the men they view as better than them, they just care about having control over women.

If your primary desire is control over women than the Republican Party is where you go.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#342323: Dec 6th 2020 at 2:54:52 PM

NY Times

Biden will pick CA Attorney General Xavier Becerra as his HHS Secretary.

This one feels surprising to me.

TheRoguePenguin Since: Jul, 2009
#342324: Dec 6th 2020 at 2:55:06 PM

Probably because similar beliefs is what led to them being incels. Being on the right wing doesn't ask anything of them. It just lets them maintain their hateful beliefs.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#342325: Dec 6th 2020 at 3:00:34 PM

The fact that they have a world-view in which society is withholding their perceived rights makes them a perfect fit for the Republican ethos.

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 6th 2020 at 6:00:45 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

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