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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Completion oldtimeytropey from Space Since: Apr, 2012
oldtimeytropey
#33926: Oct 20th 2012 at 4:18:08 PM

For the first half of the summer, it's probably because Obama had yet to begin his campaign in earnest.

Rassmussen weighs its polls in favor of Republicans because they believe (correctly) that they are more likely to go out and vote. Gallup uses a likely voter model which asks further questions about voting history. That's why they both favored Republicans.

edited 20th Oct '12 4:25:00 PM by Completion

Pykrete NOT THE BEES from Viridian Forest Since: Sep, 2009
NOT THE BEES
#33927: Oct 20th 2012 at 4:29:36 PM

What's the point of having an upper house elected the same way as the lower house?

The main reason we keep them around since the election got changed is that the Senate has two seats per state, instead of the Big Four dictating policy to the whole nation.

edited 20th Oct '12 4:30:04 PM by Pykrete

Completion oldtimeytropey from Space Since: Apr, 2012
oldtimeytropey
#33928: Oct 20th 2012 at 4:32:53 PM

Big Four is California, New York, Texas, and Florida. New York and Florida combined are less than a million above California in population. 31% or 139 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are from these four states. Some states only have one representative. California has 53.

This is why the Senate gives equal proportion to each state.

edited 20th Oct '12 4:39:08 PM by Completion

Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#33929: Oct 20th 2012 at 4:51:07 PM

OMG LIBERAL INDOCTRINATION![lol]

edit: And according to the comments this is exactly what's happening. I like how people automatically assume "Stupid schools indoctrinating our kids."

The only teachers I've ever had that were trying to indoctrinate me were both Republicans.

edited 20th Oct '12 4:54:34 PM by Kostya

Enkufka Wandering Student ಠ_ಠ from Bay of White fish Since: Dec, 2009
Wandering Student ಠ_ಠ
#33930: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:00:57 PM

@Kostya: Reminds me of this.

Very big Daydream Believer. "That's not knowledge, that's a crapshoot!" -Al Murray "Welcome to QI" -Stephen Fry
Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#33931: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:07:44 PM

Yeah none of them did something that terrible. I recall that one of them was my teacher during the last election cycle. He made us all watch the swearing in of Obama and pointed out various things he did that were apparently wrong. The funny part is that back then I was hardcore Republican so I thought he was awesome. The second...well let's just say that her craziness was a big factor in me becoming the way I am now.

Serocco Serocco from Miami, Florida Since: Mar, 2010 Relationship Status: Faithful to 2D
Serocco
#33932: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:12:47 PM

What if Romney wins Florida and Virginia? What then?

In RWBY, every girl is Best Girl.
Completion oldtimeytropey from Space Since: Apr, 2012
oldtimeytropey
#33933: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:13:37 PM

Obama can still win with just Ohio and Iowa.

Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#33934: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:13:45 PM

[up][up]He's going to win both of them from the looks of it. That doesn't mean he'll easily win the entire thing though.

[up]I believe Obama needs all the leans and one swing state and he automatically wins. Romney no long needs five or so but he still needs three to four and several are more in favor of Obama.

edited 20th Oct '12 5:14:23 PM by Kostya

Serocco Serocco from Miami, Florida Since: Mar, 2010 Relationship Status: Faithful to 2D
Serocco
#33935: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:20:46 PM

What if Michigan or Pennsylvania goes to Romney with Florida and Virginia?

In RWBY, every girl is Best Girl.
Completion oldtimeytropey from Space Since: Apr, 2012
oldtimeytropey
#33937: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:24:04 PM

If Pennsylvania and Michigan go Romney, then something horrible has happened to Obama, and Romney wins in a landslide with every lean Obama and toss-up. Pennsylvania and Michigan are likely Obama. Not lean, but likely.

edited 20th Oct '12 5:24:29 PM by Completion

Serocco Serocco from Miami, Florida Since: Mar, 2010 Relationship Status: Faithful to 2D
Serocco
#33938: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:24:20 PM

I don't know if it's because of the last Republican primary, but I feel that Romney might win either one. What are the chances of Romney winning Pennsylvania and Michigan?

edited 20th Oct '12 5:26:41 PM by Serocco

In RWBY, every girl is Best Girl.
Completion oldtimeytropey from Space Since: Apr, 2012
oldtimeytropey
#33939: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:25:59 PM

Very little. According to FiveThirtyEight, a political science website, 3.9% for Michigan and 11.6% for Pennsylvania.

edited 20th Oct '12 5:26:16 PM by Completion

Serocco Serocco from Miami, Florida Since: Mar, 2010 Relationship Status: Faithful to 2D
Serocco
#33940: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:27:30 PM

What about either guys' chances of getting Colorado and Ohio?

In RWBY, every girl is Best Girl.
Completion oldtimeytropey from Space Since: Apr, 2012
oldtimeytropey
#33941: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:28:16 PM

53.6% chance of Obama winning Colorado. 70.3% chance of Obama winning Ohio.

Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#33942: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:28:32 PM

Colorado is a tossup but Ohio is probably Obama. He significantly leads among early voters and is tied with regular voters. It would be hard for him to lose.

terlwyth Since: Oct, 2010
#33943: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:29:07 PM

RCP and Huffington both say Ohio Obama has by a narrow margin. They dispute Colorado by narrow margins again,RCP favors Romney,Huffington favors Obama

DeviantBraeburn Wandering Jew from Dysfunctional California Since: Aug, 2012
Wandering Jew
#33944: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:30:01 PM

What if Michigan or Pennsylvania goes to Romney with Florida and Virginia?

He wins.

Actually if Romney wins Florida, Virginia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania; and Obama wins every other swing state (including N. Carolina), then the candidates are tied with both having 269 electoral votes which means it goes to the House.

edited 20th Oct '12 5:33:55 PM by DeviantBraeburn

Everything is Possible. But some things are more Probable than others. JEBAGEDDON 2016
Serocco Serocco from Miami, Florida Since: Mar, 2010 Relationship Status: Faithful to 2D
Serocco
#33945: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:31:05 PM

Will the third debate affect any of that, at least for the toss-up swing states?

[up] Since the House is Republican, I guess that means Romney will win in that scenario.

edited 20th Oct '12 5:31:55 PM by Serocco

In RWBY, every girl is Best Girl.
Completion oldtimeytropey from Space Since: Apr, 2012
oldtimeytropey
#33946: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:31:18 PM

Obama winning Iowa and Ohio but losing N. Hampshire and every other swing state brings him to 269. That's a more likely cause of a tie.

Michigan and Pennsylvania are not swing states.

538 notes that there's a 10% chance that a recount will occur. This means that 10% of the time their simulations have come up with a state that has less than a .5% difference.

Here's 538's scenario analysis:

  • Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.4%
  • Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 10.1%
  • Obama wins popular vote 63.8%
  • Romney wins popular vote 36.2%
  • Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 1.7%
  • Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 5.8%
  • Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.7%
  • Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.2%
  • Map exactly the same as in 2008 0.1%
  • Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
  • Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 99.5%
  • Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 4.6%

edited 20th Oct '12 5:35:11 PM by Completion

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#33947: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:35:42 PM

Michigan is normally a swing state, but this time around, Romney has managed to piss the state off.

Almost makes me teary eyed for my home-state. Too bad I'm stuck in Georgia.

Serocco Serocco from Miami, Florida Since: Mar, 2010 Relationship Status: Faithful to 2D
Serocco
#33948: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:37:54 PM

[up] What did Romney say this time to Michigan?

In RWBY, every girl is Best Girl.
Completion oldtimeytropey from Space Since: Apr, 2012
oldtimeytropey
#33949: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:39:41 PM

[up]Imagine something a rich guy would say about three large unionized companies that make cars ,are in financial trouble, and are the largest employers of a state.

edited 20th Oct '12 5:41:53 PM by Completion

Trivialis Since: Oct, 2011
#33950: Oct 20th 2012 at 5:40:23 PM

Ah, are you from Michigan, Tomu?


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