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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Big Four is California, New York, Texas, and Florida. New York and Florida combined are less than a million above California in population. 31% or 139 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are from these four states. Some states only have one representative. California has 53.
This is why the Senate gives equal proportion to each state.
edited 20th Oct '12 4:39:08 PM by Completion
edit: And according to the comments this is exactly what's happening. I like how people automatically assume "Stupid schools indoctrinating our kids."
The only teachers I've ever had that were trying to indoctrinate me were both Republicans.
edited 20th Oct '12 4:54:34 PM by Kostya
@Kostya: Reminds me of this.
Yeah none of them did something that terrible. I recall that one of them was my teacher during the last election cycle. He made us all watch the swearing in of Obama and pointed out various things he did that were apparently wrong. The funny part is that back then I was hardcore Republican so I thought he was awesome. The second...well let's just say that her craziness was a big factor in me becoming the way I am now.
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He's going to win both of them from the looks of it. That doesn't mean he'll easily win the entire thing though.
I believe Obama needs all the leans and one swing state and he automatically wins. Romney no long needs five or so but he still needs three to four and several are more in favor of Obama.
edited 20th Oct '12 5:14:23 PM by Kostya
Very little. According to FiveThirtyEight, a political science website,
3.9% for Michigan and 11.6% for Pennsylvania.
edited 20th Oct '12 5:26:16 PM by Completion
Actually if Romney wins Florida, Virginia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania; and Obama wins every other swing state (including N. Carolina), then the candidates are tied with both having 269 electoral votes which means it goes to the House.
edited 20th Oct '12 5:33:55 PM by DeviantBraeburn
Everything is Possible. But some things are more Probable than others. JEBAGEDDON 2016Obama winning Iowa and Ohio but losing N. Hampshire and every other swing state brings him to 269. That's a more likely cause of a tie.
Michigan and Pennsylvania are not swing states.
538 notes that there's a 10% chance that a recount will occur. This means that 10% of the time their simulations have come up with a state that has less than a .5% difference.
Here's 538's scenario analysis:
- Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.4%
- Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 10.1%
- Obama wins popular vote 63.8%
- Romney wins popular vote 36.2%
- Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 1.7%
- Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 5.8%
- Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.7%
- Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.2%
- Map exactly the same as in 2008 0.1%
- Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
- Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 99.5%
- Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 4.6%
edited 20th Oct '12 5:35:11 PM by Completion

For the first half of the summer, it's probably because Obama had yet to begin his campaign in earnest.
Rassmussen weighs its polls in favor of Republicans because they believe (correctly) that they are more likely to go out and vote. Gallup uses a likely voter model which asks further questions about voting history. That's why they both favored Republicans.
edited 20th Oct '12 4:25:00 PM by Completion