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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

singularityshot Since: Dec, 2012
#337426: Nov 5th 2020 at 6:43:29 AM

I got curious, so I tried to work it out. My brain enjoyed this distraction.

TLDR: Puerto Rico gets 4 seats, DC gets one at large seat. The losers are Florida, New York, Ohio, Alabama and Oregon.

    House adjustments, based on 2019 pop. estimates 

State Seats
State Current w/o PR + DC Change with PR + DC Change
CA 53 52 -1 52 -1
TX 36 38 +2 38 +2
FL 27 29 +2 28 +1
NY 27 26 -1 25 -2
PA 18 17 -1 17 -1
IL 18 17 -1 17 -1
OH 16 16 0 15 -1
GA 14 14 0 14 0
NC 13 14 +1 14 +1
MI 14 13 -1 13 -1
NJ 12 12 0 12 0
VA 11 11 0 11 0
WA 10 10 0 10 0
AZ 9 10 +1 10 +1
MA 9 9 0 9 0
TN 9 9 0 9 0
IN 9 9 0 9 0
MO 8 8 0 8 0
MD 8 8 0 8 0
WI 8 8 0 8 0
CO 7 8 +1 8 +1
MN 8 7 -1 7 -1
SC 7 7 0 7 0
AL 7 7 0 6 -1
LA 6 6 0 6 0
KY 6 6 0 6 0
OR 5 6 +1 5 0
OK 5 5 0 5 0
CT 5 5 0 5 0
UT 4 4 0 4 0
IA 4 4 0 4 0
NV 4 4 0 4 0
AR 4 4 0 4 0
MS 4 4 0 4 0
KS 4 4 0 4 0
NM 3 3 0 3 0
NE 3 3 0 3 0
WV 3 2 -1 2 -1
ID 2 2 0 2 0
HI 2 2 0 2 0
NH 2 2 0 2 0
ME 2 2 0 2 0
MT 1 1 0 1 0
RI 2 1 -1 1 -1
DE 1 1 0 1 0
SD 1 1 0 1 0
ND 1 1 0 1 0
AK 1 1 0 1 0
VT 1 1 0 1 0
WY 1 1 0 1 0
PR 0 0 0 4 +4
DC 0 0 0 1 +1

Mullon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: And here's to you, Mrs. Robinson
#337427: Nov 5th 2020 at 6:43:37 AM

Maybe I should start my own political party, maybe that will make me feel better. But I want everyone else to do all the work.

Never trust anyone who uses "degenerate" as an insult.
MichaelKatsuro Since: Apr, 2011
#337428: Nov 5th 2020 at 7:00:10 AM

[up] With your avatar, that thought becomes ominous.

smokeycut Since: Mar, 2013
#337429: Nov 5th 2020 at 7:12:29 AM

@ Michael Katsuro: I’ve only ever seen a single arm band being worn by original nazis or neo nazi groups, at least here in the USA. The sort of “classic” neo nazi getup is black boots, suspenders, and an arm band.

DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#337430: Nov 5th 2020 at 7:12:36 AM

[up]x3 Wouldn't be worth it to be honest; not in the United States at least.

Edited by DingoWalley1 on Nov 5th 2020 at 10:12:47 AM

Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#337431: Nov 5th 2020 at 7:16:46 AM

@Mullon Will it have hookers and blackjack?

Leviticus 19:34
MichaelKatsuro Since: Apr, 2011
#337432: Nov 5th 2020 at 7:34:35 AM

@smokeycut: Ah, now I get it—I was translating mentally from my native language, where "armband" literally translates into "bracelet." I was thinking Hey, does this mean my rainbow-colored pride bracelet makes me look like a Nazi? ...The rainbow part and the pride part gotta carry more weight, right?

Mullon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: And here's to you, Mrs. Robinson
#337433: Nov 5th 2020 at 7:38:56 AM

[up][up]It will have hookers, but blackjack only in special designated areas.

Never trust anyone who uses "degenerate" as an insult.
RedSavant Since: Jan, 2001
#337434: Nov 5th 2020 at 7:54:51 AM

Unfortunately, the single armband is also very popular in Japan, including in red, though they tend to also have big letters on them saying what they're for (usually committees of some kind). Granted, "we just think Nazi fashion is cool, honest!"-type non-critical thinkers are also pretty popular in Japan.

It's been fun.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#337435: Nov 5th 2020 at 7:57:37 AM

I think at this point there certainly would be room for a more moderate conservative party to emerge, what with the Republicans moving so far right.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#337436: Nov 5th 2020 at 8:02:06 AM

[up][up] No, there is just no stigma attached to it in Japan, Red or Orange armbands are just flashy and call attention which are usually worn by people with authority.

Most countries in the world that did not fight Nazis see the same.

Edited by Memers on Nov 5th 2020 at 8:03:19 AM

RedSavant Since: Jan, 2001
#337438: Nov 5th 2020 at 8:14:09 AM

Right, I didn't mean to conflate those two as being directly connected.

^Armbands in general aren't a problem and 99% of the ones in Japan are used for civic offices and so on. It's just that Japan also has a problem with going "those Nazis sure dressed sharp, huh!" and ignoring the problems with that.

Edited by RedSavant on Nov 5th 2020 at 11:15:26 AM

It's been fun.
Hodor2 Since: Jan, 2015
#337439: Nov 5th 2020 at 8:17:44 AM

Oh. To clarify, I agree with you. I was directing that at Memers.

Specifically, the use of Japan as an example of innocent uses by "countries that didn't fight the Nazis". Like yes, I expect there are places where arm bands are popular where no one would even think of a Nazi association, but I doubt that is the case in Japan, since the country was allied with Nazi Germany in World War II.

Edited by Hodor2 on Nov 5th 2020 at 10:21:47 AM

Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#337440: Nov 5th 2020 at 8:23:18 AM

Well maybe ya should look at Red Armband of Leadership then? This is getting off topic though.

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#337442: Nov 5th 2020 at 8:43:06 AM

Fuck, that's good[lol]

i'm tired, my friend
Deadbeatloser22 from Disappeared by Space Magic (Great Old One) Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
#337443: Nov 5th 2020 at 8:47:14 AM

Alternatively, "Some levity, a muppet... and The Count."

"Yup. That tasted purple."
Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#337444: Nov 5th 2020 at 8:50:58 AM

Feeding into that. one of his tweets is literally ‘Stop the Count!’

Edited by Memers on Nov 5th 2020 at 8:51:07 AM

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#337445: Nov 5th 2020 at 8:58:32 AM

We Waited in Vain for a Repudiation That Never Came: "Trump may well end up losing to Biden, but Trumpism remains a viable political strategy."

    Paywalled Article 
The liberal hope for the 2020 presidential election was a decisive repudiation of Donald Trump and the Republican Party. This is no longer on the table. A Joe Biden win, if it happens, will be as narrow an Electoral College win as Trump’s was in 2016. Biden won the national popular vote — which matters for popular legitimacy, even if it doesn’t weigh on the outcome — but Trump outperformed his job approval, winning more total votes than any Republican presidential nominee in history. In spite of everything, the president expanded his support, most likely saving the Republican Senate majority in the process. A Trump loss is still possible — perhaps even probable, since Biden holds a lead in states totaling 270 electoral votes — but there’s every reason to think Trumpism will survive as a viable strategy for winning national elections. And what is Trumpism? It is a performance, or rather, a series of performances. It is a performance of nationalism, one that triangulates between open chauvinism in favor of the dominant ethnic group and narrow appeals to inclusion, with the promise of material gain for anyone who joins his coalition. It is a performance, on the same score, of success, projecting an image of wealth and power and urging the public to embrace it as its own — a version of “The Apprentice” in which the contestants are the American people. It is also the performance of an aggressive and aggrieved masculinity centered on the bullying and domination of others. Even without policy to match the populist persona — the Trump administration has been as generous to the wealthy and connected as it has been stingy with the poor and the working class — Trumpism appeals to tens of millions of voters, from the large majority of white Americans to many people in traditionally Democratic constituencies.

That, if anything, is the surprise of this election. Although it is still too early to make any definitive statement about the shape of the electorate (broad white support for Trump notwithstanding), it is clear that the president made modest inroads with Black and Hispanic voters, especially men. This is most apparent in the states of Florida, Georgia and Texas, where Trump outperformed his 2016 totals in several areas where Hispanic voters make up a majority.

We don’t yet know why Trump made those gains — although the aforementioned performances, which figured prominently in his outreach to those groups, may have something to do with it — but this shift is a useful reminder that politics does not move along a linear path. For all of our data, the political world is still a fundamentally unpredictable place. A decade ago, for example, Democrats believed that demographic change — the shift from a “majority white” country to a “majority minority” one — would give the party an almost unbreakable lock on national politics; that a growing population of Asian and Hispanic Americans would inevitably redound to liberal benefit. At the time, I wrote that this was unlikely, that while it was a seductive theory, there was not much evidence to support the vision of an enduring Democratic majority. Racial and ethnic identity, I argued, were too fluid, and there was no guarantee that future members of those groups would think of themselves as “minorities” in the way that has been historically true of Black Americans. Changing conditions — greater assimilation and upward mobility — could make them as volatile in partisan politics as European ethnic groups were in the 20th century.

If the Hispanic shift is as large as it appears to be, then we are living in that reality. What I didn’t expect is that it would come heralded by a Republican like Trump. But this only speaks to the diversity, ideological and otherwise, of the Hispanic electorate, which is as varied in racial background and national origin as most other groups of Americans. To extend an earlier analogy, it is probably as useful to speak of “Hispanics” in 2020 as it was to speak of “Europeans” in 1950. The category is just too broad, obscuring (in electoral politics, at least) far more than it illuminates. Again, it is too early to say that there’s been a permanent realignment, although some trends — like the rising partisan significance of gender and education — are clear. It’s true, though, that the possibilities for change and transformation are wide open. Perhaps a future Republican, one with the same or similar fame and charisma, will build a real majority from the foundation laid over the last four years. Perhaps a future Democrat will turn the party’s consistent voting majority into a greater share of electoral votes and congressional seats. Perhaps we see neither and are in for another decade of fierce partisan competition between two equal and evenly-matched sides. The 2020 election, in other words, will have an outcome. But it won’t be conclusive. It will be an uncertain result for an uncertain time in American life. Political trench warfare will continue. Total victory, whether in politics or anywhere else, is not on the immediate horizon. The future remains unwritten and is perhaps even more unknowable than before.

"The 2020 election, in other words, will have an outcome. But it won’t be conclusive. It will be an uncertain result for an uncertain time in American life. Political trench warfare will continue. Total victory, whether in politics or anywhere else, is not on the immediate horizon. The future remains unwritten and is perhaps even more unknowable than before."

Edited by DeMarquis on Nov 5th 2020 at 12:02:00 PM

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#337446: Nov 5th 2020 at 9:03:54 AM

I can see Trumpism staying around, yeah. A Biden win will probably help it since the fallout of Trump’s failings will be during Biden’s administration like what Obama inherited from Bush.

I think Qanon though is collapsing.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#337447: Nov 5th 2020 at 9:06:59 AM

Yeah, it is hardly a repudiation.

How is Qanon collapsing? And why do they think Trump has abandoned them?

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#337448: Nov 5th 2020 at 9:11:37 AM

If the polls matched the results it would have been a repudiation.

Deadbeatloser22 from Disappeared by Space Magic (Great Old One) Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
#337449: Nov 5th 2020 at 9:16:09 AM

Feeding into that. one of his tweets is literally ‘Stop the Count!’

Which a lot of people seem to be responding to with STOP THE PIGEON.

"Yup. That tasted purple."
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#337450: Nov 5th 2020 at 9:31:22 AM

I've been doing some research into why people vote Republican. This article seems to encapsulate a lot of it: Many Latino Men Are Supporting President Trump This Election. At the very least, with this group you can't just assume it's all racism.

"But that derisive rhetoric doesn't faze him, he said. This party is where he feels at home.

"Our families and our communities, you know, really took care of each other and took care of ourselves. We weren't really focused on what is the government going to do for us," he said. "The independent spirit of our community really drove me to the Republican ideal of making sure that you're able to provide for yourself and your family, that you have that independence and that liberty to be able to start your own business or work where you wanted to, or go to school where you wanted to go and have those opportunities available."

His Christian faith also aligned him with the Republican Party on issues such as abortion. And while he said he probably wouldn't phrase things the way Trump does sometimes, Latino voters such as him are attracted to the message of lower taxes and lower costs of living, especially in California."

That, and the fact that the Republican Party has apparently been building bridges with this community for decades, while the Democrats apparently haven't, explains some things.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.

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