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Nov 2023 Mod notice:


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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336951: Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:01:34 PM

@Septimus: So go to bed and find out in the morning. It’s unlikely the early results when the first polls close will tell us anything conclusive.

Edited by Galadriel on Nov 2nd 2020 at 4:02:29 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#336952: Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:04:00 PM

Yep 1am a Wednesday for Central Europe is when the first polls close, here I’ll crib from the OP I have for an election results watch thread.

  • 7pm: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia.
  • 7:30pm: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia.
  • 8pm: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee.
  • 8:30pm: Arkansas.
  • 9pm: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

For Central Europe you add 6 hours to the listed time.

Edited by Silasw on Nov 2nd 2020 at 9:04:21 AM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
MichaelKatsuro Since: Apr, 2011
#336953: Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:04:01 PM

Me, I'll go to bed and then not find out in the morning. I want to know only when we know. Thank goodness that I don't work Wednesdays.

ScubaWolf from South Carolina Since: Feb, 2020
#336954: Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:14:56 PM

I'm not going to be able to sleep at all tomorrow. The constant dread will keep me awake, I still have some PTSD from last election...

"In a move surprising absolutely no one"
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#336955: Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:21:51 PM

I am going to try and either get to bed earlyish or distract myself.

However, that's a bit difficult because my timezone is one hour earlier than any American one.

I trust the numbers, and hopefully by the end of the week I can say I trust the American electorate again.

Edited by Rationalinsanity on Nov 2nd 2020 at 5:28:57 AM

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#336956: Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:23:11 PM

The earliest polls close at 9 in the morning on the 4th for me. Guessing my productivity is gonna be nil on Wednesday.

Edit: Would you guys mind if I post downballot races/states as they get called by AP News? (Their methodology is here).


[down] Ah, thanks for the information!

Edited by nova92 on Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:26:54 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336957: Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:25:36 PM

Silas is making an election watch thread, so I'd imagine posting there when it opens up would be fine.

Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#336958: Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:32:24 PM

All hail the bunny, he who sacrifices his mental well for the sake of reporting the truth.

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336959: Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:33:55 PM

Honestly, at this point I feel pretty bad for Nate Silver and the other people at 538.

No matter what they say or how they explains things, they have people on all sides biting their heads off.

Edited by LSBK on Nov 2nd 2020 at 3:38:45 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336960: Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:34:45 PM

[up]He actually wrote a post specifically saying trump could win because people misunderstood (and keep misunderstanding) how 538 and statistics at large work. If we're tired of hearing "but 2016" i can't imagine how sick of it he must be.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Nov 2nd 2020 at 6:37:35 AM

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#336961: Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:41:44 PM

Silver is a victim of the oracle fallacy among the general public. Having made an accurate prediction, he is now hounded for similar accuracy by the public and decried whenever he appears to be wrong, even if you try to explain how statistics work.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#336962: Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:42:41 PM

Though he's not doing himself any favours putting out tweets like "if Trump wins these three states then he has a 50/50 chance" and leaving it to random people replying to specify that this is in a vacuum and it's less, "if these three states are called then" but rather "making the assumption that these three states go this way, then it's 50/50".

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#336963: Nov 2nd 2020 at 2:03:26 PM

My understanding is that Nate Silver generally isn’t helping himself by putting out tweets. tongue

All hail the bunny, he who sacrifices his mental well for the sake of reporting the truth.

I’m not the poor sap who’s gonna have to mod the thing, that’s Fighteer’s problem. tongue

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Falrinn Since: Dec, 2014
#336964: Nov 2nd 2020 at 2:36:30 PM

Not sure if this has been posted before, but it seems like the effort of several Texas Republican candidates to invalidate over 120,000 votes cast in drive-through polling stations has been dismissed in Federal Court after it already failed in State court. Partly due to the plaintiffs lacking proper legal grounds, and partly because invalidating over 120,000 votes cast in good faith by eligible voters over an alleged technical violation of election law by the county board of electors is freaking insane.

My understanding is that the Federal Judge in question has a reputation for being an egregiously right-wing partisan, but apparently even he has his limits.

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336965: Nov 2nd 2020 at 2:38:21 PM

It did get posted here. I think there's another court they can appeal to but the judge seemed to imply they probably wouldn't succeed if they took their case up there.

ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#336966: Nov 2nd 2020 at 2:44:34 PM

[up][up]

Notably, he explicitly said "Why am I just getting this case?" and pointed out that the practice had gone on all summer long, which was probably a big factor in why it was dismissed.

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
Falrinn Since: Dec, 2014
#336967: Nov 2nd 2020 at 2:46:23 PM

[up][up] Yeah, this was probably the only judge that might have sided with them, at least in terms of throwing out the 120,000+ votes already cast.

Overall, on paper I don't think it's entirely without merit that the drive through polling locations were de facto curbside polling places and therefore by Texas law only allowed for people with physical disabilities. Nevertheless the time to make this sort of legal challenge would of been at least 3 or 4 months ago, not about 2 weeks ago.

Having said that the fact that they were also trying to get the votes already cast thrown out was totally insane. That is the sort of crap that sparks revolutions, and I don't know if it's worse if they didn't know that, or did.

Edited by Falrinn on Nov 2nd 2020 at 2:46:37 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#336968: Nov 2nd 2020 at 2:59:36 PM

The governor of Oregon is preemptively declaring a state of emergency for Portland and putting the national guard on standby, so as to prevent voter intimidation. This also puts local police under state level control, just in case any of them get any funny ideas.[1]

The money quote.

“I want to be very, very clear that voter intimidation and political violence will not be tolerated,” Brown said. “Not from the left, not from the right and not from the center. Not this week, not any week in Oregon.”

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
WillKeaton from Alberta, Canada Since: Jun, 2010
#336969: Nov 2nd 2020 at 3:04:45 PM

What's the date when the results of the election are "officially" announced and the president is "formally" decided on?

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#336970: Nov 2nd 2020 at 3:05:42 PM

Technically, the electors meet in December to cast their ballots and transmit the results to Congress. That is when the President is elected. Everything you hear beforehand is sound and fury.

That said, you're probably thinking of when the Electoral College makeup will be determined, and it is up to each state to certify its own election results to that end. It could be weeks after the polls close thanks to all the mail-in ballots.

Edited by Fighteer on Nov 2nd 2020 at 6:06:58 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#336971: Nov 2nd 2020 at 3:07:24 PM

There's so much focus on November 3 because that's the deadline for voting,which can be a little misleading as I've gathered

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
WillKeaton from Alberta, Canada Since: Jun, 2010
#336972: Nov 2nd 2020 at 3:08:03 PM

Have they not yet decided on a specific date in December?

Wait, nevermind, the date is December 14th.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#336973: Nov 2nd 2020 at 3:11:01 PM

So the process goes like this.

  • Election day. (November 3rd).
  • The election is called by news network and such, normally at this point the looser concedes and call their opponent to congratulate them. (Will vary by state and maybe even network).
  • States formally certify their results. (Will vary by state).
  • Electors meet in states and cast their electoral votes. (December 14th).
  • Congress certifies the results of the electoral college. (January 6th).
  • Inauguration day. (January 20th).

Edited by Silasw on Nov 2nd 2020 at 11:13:05 AM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#336974: Nov 2nd 2020 at 3:13:35 PM

I need to bitch a bit. Pardon any rantiness.

Right now, I kind of want Theresa Greenfield to lose for the sheer obnoxiousness of her campaign's texts. I've had to mute my phone to avoid getting daily robotexts, and crucially, she doesn't offer a STOP option. I gave my donations to the DNC and to Warren Democrats. I do not need individual candidates harassing me day after day because the DNC has sold them my data, particularly when I'm not even their constituent.

This is not responsible campaigning behavior. Rargh.

Xopher001 Since: Jul, 2012
#336975: Nov 2nd 2020 at 3:17:35 PM

As it is past midnight for me here in Europe, I am going to try to avoid any news for the next 24 hours. I have already disabled Reddit and Twitter on my phone. I don't want to go crazy waiting to hear the results


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