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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
I think whether or not Republicans try and make it harder to vote against them (they do) and whether or not they'll get anywhere in trying to contest contests that aren't even close are different discussions.
Honestly, I think that point needs to be made more, because a lot of people just keep acting as if Republicans can just challenge any election results no matter how clear it is they lost, and the end result will definitely end in their favor. Which, like, of all the things to worry about that doesn't really seem to have much backing.
Regarding the question on last page, it's because the Midwest states have similar demographics with each other. So a polling trend in Pennsylvania is likely to carry over to Ohio and one in Georgia to Mississippi, but not from Georgia to Ohio.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanThe Midwest states have some fairly strong demographic similarities with each other.
In the South, I expect it is in part related to how urban a state is, and how many high-education white voters it has. As well as the size of the black population and the disenfranchisement of the black population - I think I remember from Ava duVernay’s 13th that fully half of the black population of Alabama are disenfranchised.
Edited by Galadriel on Nov 2nd 2020 at 2:07:07 PM
Actually, was the first election delayed at all? I mean, Washington was elected unanimously in the electoral college IIRC.
Edited by Protagonist506 on Nov 2nd 2020 at 11:07:27 AM
Leviticus 19:34![]()
That percentage is way higher than anything I've ever seen. Highest rates of black disenfranchisement among the states are in the 20~% (Alabama actually not having one of the highest), and while that's still disgustingly high, it's not close to a majority of adults.
Edited by LSBK on Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:09:09 PM
Okay, the thread moved on while I was checking the numbers, but just for the record, Florida has always had one of the highest rates and highest total numbers of disenfranchised citizens in the US. According to the book Locked Out by Christopher Uggen and Jeff Manza, in 2004 nearly 20% of the African American population was disenfranchised, as was nearly 10% of the general voting age population. Those rates aren't meaningfully different from those in 2016, before Amendment 4 was passed.
Edit: Linking to the 2020 Sentencing Project
report of felony disenfranchisement in the US.
It's actually Mississippi that has the highest rate of disenfranchised voters at 10.55%, with Tennessee (9.09%), Alabama (8.94%) and Florida (7.69%) after that.
Edited by nova92 on Nov 2nd 2020 at 11:13:05 AM
Also of note is that Southern states have tended to be inelastic historically in that few voters change their minds election to election. A Democratic candidate in South Carolina can win 45% of the vote fairly easily because of the large percentage of Blacks who live there, but getting to 50% is very hard because Whites there largely vote Republican and are generally conservative.
Edited by megarockman on Nov 2nd 2020 at 2:14:21 PM
The damned queen and the relentless knight.Florida was 21% in 2016 but Amendment 4, despite the poll tax added on afterwards by Republicans, reenfranchised quite a few of them. Currently 15% of African Americans in Florida do not have the vote.
Edited by nova92 on Nov 2nd 2020 at 11:17:40 AM
Alabama has about 7% of its population disenfranchised, the state is 26% black, so if all the people disenfranchised under felony disenfranchisement were black, that would be somewhere in the 20-25% range.
As there will be some variety in who is hit by the disenfranchisement (I suspect that native Americans are also hit hard) I’d guess we’re looking at more the mid teens for the percentage of black Alabamans who are disenfranchised.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranBiden camp quietly raises money for post-election court brawl – Biden officials are holding calls with big fundraisers to prepare for the possibility of lengthy, expensive legal fights after Election Day.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/02/biden-camp-fundraising-post-election-433803
A decades-long blue wave – Young voters could provide an advantage to Democrats for decades to come.
https://www.axios.com/blue-wave-decades-biden-democrats-62bc1d31-ffd2-4a4a-8f8a-b2f476c65876.html
Driving the news: Pollsters and political scientists have been poring over two new reports by the liberal Center for American Progress and the Harvard Institute of Politics this month that examine both the growing size and enthusiasm among the nation's youngest voters.
The Harvard poll finds that 63% of 18- to 29-year olds "definitely" plan to vote. Their enthusiasm for Biden grew even stronger since September.
The Center for American Progress' models forecast a huge advantage for Democrats in future elections, based on demographics and voting patterns of today’s youngest generations — even taking account of trends that show that Americans tend to become more conservative as they age. Its models find an 8% to 18% advantage for Democrats in the popular vote by 2036. Electoral college models, which factor in changing state demographics of these young voters, look even more formidable for Republicans.
Millennials and Generation Z are much more liberal than their predecessors and voted for Democrats in previous election cycles. Voting research shows that the president you vote for as you come of age to vote often determines which party you'll stick with, too.
Millennials (born 1981 to 1996) and Generation Z (born 1997 onward) voters combined are estimated to represent 37% of eligible voters this year — larger than that of Baby Boomers (28%) and Generation X (24%)
By 2036, those two generations will make up 60% of the electorate. What they're saying: “In the near term, the die is cast,” said Carroll Doherty, director of political research at Pew Research Center. “It’s obvious this is a generation, whether it be Millennials or Gen Z, this is clearly a Democratic generation and without a big change of heart they're going to remain so.”
Some Republicans agree: Young voters "will have voted for Democrats so repeatedly that it would be hard to shake them of that," Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson told Axios.
"I think with older Millennials, we’re seeing the fruits of that. Republicans have by and large lost a lot of the Millennials. They cannot also afford to lose all of Generation Z.”
Yes, but: The election-upending impact of younger voters has been predicted for decades and has yet to come to pass.
The authors of the Center for American Progress report warn that Democrats could fail to cultivate these younger voters even as Republicans shouldn't rely on these voters to turn more conservative as they age.
"[D]emographic, especially generational, change is likely to have profound effects on the competition between the parties in this decade and beyond. We cannot say which party will best handle these changes, only that they will have to do so."
Eh, people always predict high you turnout and it rarely pans out. It happened in 2008 (and maybe 2018 relative to other midterms?), and I think that was about all.
EDIT: Yep, 2008 and 2018 are the ones that stand out, and even in 2008 youth turnout was only 50%.
http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics
Edited by Galadriel on Nov 2nd 2020 at 2:26:06 PM
Sorry if it's been posted already but this thread moves very fast.
U.S. judge voices doubt about Texas Republican bid to throw out 127,000 votes
Texas Republicans have taken their court to the Federal level and it's not looking good for them. The Judge has expressed skepticism on their case noting that they'd need to provide evidence for some kind of "evil intent" on the part of the Democrats to justify throwing out votes, going as far as explicitly state that they're facing an uphill battle.
He also noted that their timing was not in their favor and made their case look worse.
So this is quite excellent, thank goodness for judges who actually care about justice!
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Nov 2nd 2020 at 11:25:50 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangHere’s the page from The Sentencing Project[1]
, that Wyoming number really is insane.

Trump may try several things, but counting is fast and it’ll take a day or two just to get anything in front of a judge and get a ruling, at which point an awful lot of ballots will have been counted.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran