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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
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It means Florida tends to have Republican state governments with a record of election-rigging.
And if they can add it to an already solid victory, that’s gravy, but it is one place you REALLY do not want to have as the state that decides the election
Edited by Galadriel on Nov 2nd 2020 at 12:46:34 PM
I’ve got all the details of what states to watch and when polls closed ready in a post for a results watch thread (plus a link to free mental health aid). Just waiting for it to actually be Election Day before I post it.
Biden campaigning for state delegations isn’t worth it, any scenario where Democrats are in a position to win enough state delegations Biden has a clear victory, if things are close enough to be unclear then nothing Biden could have done would have gotten Dems enough state delegations.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranIf Biden wins, the Democrats probably tie in the Senate, at least.
If you assume that Doug Jones is cooked, the Democrats have likely pickups in Colorado, Arizona, Maine and North Carolina, with Iowa and Georgia (x2!) being closer, and the Montana race is close to tied.
The House is in the bag.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.RE: Senate—the 538 forecast for the Senate stands as thus (Deluxe/Classic/Lite)†, for an 80% confidence interval:
R52/D48: 6.9%/5.8%/6.0%
R51/D49: 10.5%/8.9%/8.5%
R50/D50: 12.7%/11.4%/9.7%
R49/D51: 14.1%/12.8%/10.6%
R48/D52: 13.7%/13.2%/11.0%
R47/D53: 11.9%/12.4%/10.7%
R46/D54: 9.6%/10.2%/9.6%
R47/D55: 6.6%/8.1%/8.2%
R46/D56: NA/5.3%/6.5%
R45/D57: NA/NA/5.2%
† Increasingly less non-polls modelling
Edited by RainehDaze on Nov 2nd 2020 at 6:03:17 PM
One election, does not a record make and 2000 didn't even come down to the state government. I get being worried about Florida because it is close, but your claim here really just doesn't make sense if you actually look at elections past it, as far as I can tell.
Edited by LSBK on Nov 2nd 2020 at 12:32:34 PM
I would also like to point out the reason the supreme court even got involved in that mess is because the margin of votes was like, less than a thousand, about the closest you could get in an election of that magnitude. Which it's possible that the election here will be that close but if Biden is up by like 2% then it's a different story.
He won it, but considering the voter suppression in Florida (in 2016 10% of the voting age population weren’t allowed to vote) I’m not sure I’d call any Republican victory in Florida truly legitimate.
But he’s the thing, a lot of the things Republicans do are already baked into polling and voter predictions, likewise they’re marginal adjustments, not total changes.
It’s still possible to win in a rigged system, so don’t let the fact that the system is rigged convince you that victory is impossible.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranFlorida has disenfranchised felons since before it was a state, so that particular bit of suppression has been going on as long as long as African Americans have been disproportionately made felons and favoured one party over the other.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranSo is Trump seriously going to unleash his lawyers in order to stop the vote-count after 3rd of November tomorrow or not?
His medication might have cost him what reason and sense he still had left and with the stress of the election, I won't be surprised if he just outright implodes on himself within the next few days...
Something interesting I noticed after messing around with the 538 map some more - how come the Midwest states are more closely 'tied' to each other than the southern states are? Like, if I give Pennsylvania to Trump, naturally Ohio will become much redder - but if I then give Florida, Georgia, and NC to Biden, Ohio will remain red while Texas and Mississippi, of all states, turn grey, but none of the other southern states like Alabama and so on. Am I just imagining a difference here?
Those sell-by-dates won't stop me because I can't read!

I think the hospitals being close to the breaking point with COVID patients would affect Wisconsinites’ (is there some colloquial nickname I’m forgetting?) opinions on Trump. Unless the Democrats are more worried about the virus than Republicans and therefore stay home to avoid catching it.
Ugh, I’d want to wear a hazmat suit to vote if I was there.
Edited by Galadriel on Nov 2nd 2020 at 12:44:46 PM