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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336876: Nov 2nd 2020 at 9:43:14 AM

I think the hospitals being close to the breaking point with COVID patients would affect Wisconsinites’ (is there some colloquial nickname I’m forgetting?) opinions on Trump. Unless the Democrats are more worried about the virus than Republicans and therefore stay home to avoid catching it.

Ugh, I’d want to wear a hazmat suit to vote if I was there.

Edited by Galadriel on Nov 2nd 2020 at 12:44:46 PM

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336877: Nov 2nd 2020 at 9:43:55 AM

[up][up][up][up]I mean, there's no "trust" involved in any of this. What does that even mean here?

Edited by LSBK on Nov 2nd 2020 at 11:44:33 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336878: Nov 2nd 2020 at 9:45:02 AM

I don’t trust Florida, not after 2000 and 2004 and their record of electoral shenanigans. Dems should never rely on Florida for a win.

I also feel this way but it is worth remembering that Obama also won Florida twice, if narrowly.

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336879: Nov 2nd 2020 at 9:45:28 AM

[up][up]It means Florida tends to have Republican state governments with a record of election-rigging.

[up] And if they can add it to an already solid victory, that’s gravy, but it is one place you REALLY do not want to have as the state that decides the election

Edited by Galadriel on Nov 2nd 2020 at 12:46:34 PM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#336880: Nov 2nd 2020 at 9:46:04 AM

I’ve got all the details of what states to watch and when polls closed ready in a post for a results watch thread (plus a link to free mental health aid). Just waiting for it to actually be Election Day before I post it.

Biden campaigning for state delegations isn’t worth it, any scenario where Democrats are in a position to win enough state delegations Biden has a clear victory, if things are close enough to be unclear then nothing Biden could have done would have gotten Dems enough state delegations.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#336882: Nov 2nd 2020 at 9:55:07 AM

If Biden wins, the Democrats probably tie in the Senate, at least.

If you assume that Doug Jones is cooked, the Democrats have likely pickups in Colorado, Arizona, Maine and North Carolina, with Iowa and Georgia (x2!) being closer, and the Montana race is close to tied.

The House is in the bag.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336883: Nov 2nd 2020 at 9:57:32 AM

Maine and NC are both close in terms of the Senate, and I think the Dems need both for a Senate majority.

nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#336884: Nov 2nd 2020 at 9:59:50 AM

[up] RCV in Maine is almost certain to carry Sara Gideon over the line. North Carolina is probably the one I'd be most concerned about for a Republican upset, but Cunningham has a clear edge in polls.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#336885: Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:02:42 AM

RE: Senate—the 538 forecast for the Senate stands as thus (Deluxe/Classic/Lite)†, for an 80% confidence interval:
R52/D48: 6.9%/5.8%/6.0%
R51/D49: 10.5%/8.9%/8.5%
R50/D50: 12.7%/11.4%/9.7%
R49/D51: 14.1%/12.8%/10.6%
R48/D52: 13.7%/13.2%/11.0%
R47/D53: 11.9%/12.4%/10.7%
R46/D54: 9.6%/10.2%/9.6%
R47/D55: 6.6%/8.1%/8.2%
R46/D56: NA/5.3%/6.5%
R45/D57: NA/NA/5.2%

† Increasingly less non-polls modelling

Edited by RainehDaze on Nov 2nd 2020 at 6:03:17 PM

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#336886: Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:06:01 AM

And I feel better about South Carolina, because Graham is clearly worried.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336887: Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:10:11 AM

I would be stunned to see a Republican lose in SC.

Sivartis Captionless One from Lubberland, or the Isle of Lazye Since: Apr, 2009
Captionless One
#336888: Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:15:40 AM

I think the hospitals being close to the breaking point with COVID patients would affect Wisconsinites’ (is there some colloquial nickname I’m forgetting?) opinions on Trump.
"Cheeseheads", if you're feeling uncharitable.

♭What.
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336889: Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:29:30 AM

It means Florida tends to have Republican state governments with a record of election-rigging.

One election, does not a record make and 2000 didn't even come down to the state government. I get being worried about Florida because it is close, but your claim here really just doesn't make sense if you actually look at elections past it, as far as I can tell.

Edited by LSBK on Nov 2nd 2020 at 12:32:34 PM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336890: Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:31:58 AM

I would also like to point out the reason the supreme court even got involved in that mess is because the margin of votes was like, less than a thousand, about the closest you could get in an election of that magnitude. Which it's possible that the election here will be that close but if Biden is up by like 2% then it's a different story.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336891: Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:34:22 AM

And about 2004, Bush just straight up won Florida. Yes, it's bad that Bush got reelected, but we really shouldn't be equating getting more votes with rigging elections. That's literally what Republicans are trying to do right now.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#336892: Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:45:46 AM

He won it, but considering the voter suppression in Florida (in 2016 10% of the voting age population weren’t allowed to vote) I’m not sure I’d call any Republican victory in Florida truly legitimate.

But he’s the thing, a lot of the things Republicans do are already baked into polling and voter predictions, likewise they’re marginal adjustments, not total changes.

It’s still possible to win in a rigged system, so don’t let the fact that the system is rigged convince you that victory is impossible.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336893: Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:47:43 AM

How far into active suppression were they in 2004? Apparently turnout was actually way up in Florida that year, but Bush still won by a comfortable margin.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#336894: Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:53:33 AM

Florida has disenfranchised felons since before it was a state, so that particular bit of suppression has been going on as long as long as African Americans have been disproportionately made felons and favoured one party over the other.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
TitanJump Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Singularity
#336896: Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:58:55 AM

So is Trump seriously going to unleash his lawyers in order to stop the vote-count after 3rd of November tomorrow or not?

His medication might have cost him what reason and sense he still had left and with the stress of the election, I won't be surprised if he just outright implodes on himself within the next few days...

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336897: Nov 2nd 2020 at 11:00:17 AM

And this year there have been piles of court cases about the de facto poll tax in Florida (ex-felons can only vote if they pay all their fines, and as if that wasn’t bad enough, the government doesn’t even have its records in order to tell them what they owe), and that’s still in place.

DrunkenNordmann from Exile Since: May, 2015
#336898: Nov 2nd 2020 at 11:01:17 AM

[up][up] Is he still on steroids?

We learn from history that we do not learn from history
PresidentStalkeyes Eats moldy bread and flies into windows from United Kingdom of England-land Since: Feb, 2016 Relationship Status: Do you like me? (Yes ⎕ Definitely ⎕ Absolutely!!! ⎕)
Eats moldy bread and flies into windows
#336899: Nov 2nd 2020 at 11:02:40 AM

Something interesting I noticed after messing around with the 538 map some more - how come the Midwest states are more closely 'tied' to each other than the southern states are? Like, if I give Pennsylvania to Trump, naturally Ohio will become much redder - but if I then give Florida, Georgia, and NC to Biden, Ohio will remain red while Texas and Mississippi, of all states, turn grey, but none of the other southern states like Alabama and so on. Am I just imagining a difference here?

Those sell-by-dates won't stop me because I can't read!
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#336900: Nov 2nd 2020 at 11:03:44 AM

He's probably going to try but the courts won't stop the counting. Unless they want to declare every US election ever, right back to the first, invalid.

There's no grounds under which Trump can claim votes should stop being counted on election day.


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