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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
That's interesting. I've heard way more about the possibility of Biden winning Texas despite having worse odds. Maybe if we're lucky, it'll turn out the GOP invested so much into stopping them from losing Texas that they completely forgot about Ohio. :V
Those sell-by-dates won't stop me because I can't read!![]()
Texas gets a lot of focus because there's been a lot of talk about it turning blue eventually thanks to demographic shifts and people with democrat-leans moving into the state. If Texas became a legitimate swing state, it would be extremely bad for the GOP since it's worth 38 EV's and they would need to spend a lot of time and money to defend it, siphoning money away from other swing states. If it became a reliable blue state, then a path to the presidency for them is basically impossible.
Ohio is genuinely competitive- one of the most competitive states, in fact- but it's not a terribly important state; if Biden wins it, he's probably won enough other states that it doesn't really matter.
Which is, strictly speaking, also true of Texas, but Texas is more notable because of laughably implausible a Republican victory without Texas would be; flipping it has been the Democrat's dream for years, whereas Ohio has always been a 'winnable in a good year' state for them.
Biden winning Texas would also send everyone the signal that Biden's won by enough that GOP attempts to steal the election will be futile, so there's a good chance they won't bother. Which has obvious utility.
Not necessarily — the Rust Belt Midwest will still have a large proportion of whites without a college degree compared to the country as a whole. Biden seems to be doing well enough to counter that this year, but going forward it will be a challenge for Democrats to remain in control in the region outside of Chicago.
To me, it seems more like a case of the Midwest becoming more Republican while the New South/Southwest shifts towards Democrat.
The damned queen and the relentless knight.I wouldn't say it's their final chance to be elected, that's too definitive a statement, but trends are certainly not looking good for them. That's also why comprehensive voting reform (and finding a way to get rid of the electoral college) is really important, the GOP knows that when more people vote they tend to lose. So if the democrats remove all the things that are stacking the deck in the GOP's favor to make for genuinely fair elections, their prospects become dim since they've made no effort to broaden out their base.
As someone living in Ohio... I don't have high hopes for us going to Biden. It's in the realm of possibility, but I've noticed a new infusion of Trump ads recently and even in my generally liberal area there are still a lot of Trump signs around (thank you neighbors for letting me know which of you I'm not safe around).
This signature was thumped to preserve the dignity of the moderators.That's why people have been concerned about what the GOP is going to field out after Trump. The xenophobia, white grievance politics, etc isn't going away, the GOP have made their bed and now they have to sleep in it. You just know there's someone just as vile, but better at hiding it and more competent, just waiting in the wings.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:33:44 PM
The Supreme Court in a 7-1 Decision has ruled that Cops can not sue Black Lives Matter for violent actions of individuals involved with them
; In 2016 a Police Officer was struck with a Rock by a BLM activist resulting in physical harm. The Officer sued both the Activist and the organization, and while a lower court ruled that the officer couldn't sue BLM, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit ruled that the lawsuit could go ahead. The Supreme Court in an unsigned opinion ruled that the Circuit Court was wrong and needed to re-evaluate the case. Clarence Thomas was the only dissent; Amy Coney Barrett abstained from the case.
Over 95 million people have voted across the US so far
, putting turnout at 37%, i.e. higher than in 2014, with Election Day voting still left.
Edit: Sorry, forgot to put the link in before posting.
Edited by nova92 on Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:36:07 AM
Ohio's almost perfectly neck and neck
, according to 538. Do not be dismissive of the possibility of either outcome there.
The Republicans have enough institutional inertia from decades of gaming the system that they aren't going away for a good amount of time even if demographics do change. It's that entrenched in the system, as seen by their recent Supreme Court nominations, unless Democrats can somehow steamroll voting reforms through.
Yeah, people talk about signs a lot in these types of discussions but it's important to note that
a) while anecdotes affect us much more strongly because they're what happens to us directly, they can never paint the whole picture.
b) A lot of Biden supporters feel afraid of hanging up signs because they don't want to be victims of violence or have their property defaced. So in some way this can create a skewed impression of support since the trumpers are much more vocal about it, but it doesn't necessarily mean there are more of them.
Haha, no. Not even close. The systemic, horrifying manners in which the U.S electoral system is rigged are still there. One could hope Biden could start chipping away at it, but there was no such promise in his campaign.
Not to mention: all those republicans who are all anti trump right now? And who will claim they stood up against him once he's gone and every dirty laundy is aired? they will claim they stood up against him.
All the while, going back to a Trump era with the difference that they don't say the quiet part out loud. All those Lincoln project people are happy to support Trump's policies just not his aesthetic.
Edited by Aszur on Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:44:35 AM
It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes

I don't entirely know why but I've heard Ohio has always been considered a difficult state for Biden to win. Most scenarios about swing states I've seen don't even bother mentioning Ohio.