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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336826: Nov 2nd 2020 at 7:59:17 AM

I don't entirely know why but I've heard Ohio has always been considered a difficult state for Biden to win. Most scenarios about swing states I've seen don't even bother mentioning Ohio.

PresidentStalkeyes Eats moldy bread and flies into windows from United Kingdom of England-land Since: Feb, 2016 Relationship Status: Do you like me? (Yes ⎕ Definitely ⎕ Absolutely!!! ⎕)
Eats moldy bread and flies into windows
#336827: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:04:48 AM

That's interesting. I've heard way more about the possibility of Biden winning Texas despite having worse odds. Maybe if we're lucky, it'll turn out the GOP invested so much into stopping them from losing Texas that they completely forgot about Ohio. :V

Those sell-by-dates won't stop me because I can't read!
doctor05 Since: Sep, 2015
#336828: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:05:12 AM

At least Florida seems bit likely for Biden to win. That and pennsylvania.

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336829: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:07:52 AM

[up][up]Texas gets a lot of focus because there's been a lot of talk about it turning blue eventually thanks to demographic shifts and people with democrat-leans moving into the state. If Texas became a legitimate swing state, it would be extremely bad for the GOP since it's worth 38 EV's and they would need to spend a lot of time and money to defend it, siphoning money away from other swing states. If it became a reliable blue state, then a path to the presidency for them is basically impossible.

tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#336830: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:12:24 AM

If Texas became a reliable swing state, expect a push from Republican leadership to move the state towards dolling out our electors proportionately.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#336831: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:12:31 AM

What's the deal with South Carolina? How did it go from Virginia turning blue, North Carolina turning purple, then the trends skipping over a state, and then Georgia turning purple?

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#336832: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:16:32 AM

South Carolina doesn't really have a big major hot-growing metro area with high-education jobs like NC (Research Triangle) or GA (Atlanta).

Edited by megarockman on Nov 2nd 2020 at 11:17:42 AM

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
Resileafs I actually wanted to be Resileaf Since: Jan, 2019
I actually wanted to be Resileaf
#336833: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:17:37 AM

So, could we realistically say that this election is the Republicans' final chance to be elected with the way demographics are changing and that's why they're so desperate to steal it so they can prevent future elections from going the Democrats' way?

doctor05 Since: Sep, 2015
#336834: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:20:09 AM

Republicans REALLY needs a firm slap in the face. They are too high on drug called Trump

Edited by doctor05 on Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:20:27 AM

Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#336835: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:20:44 AM

Ohio is genuinely competitive- one of the most competitive states, in fact- but it's not a terribly important state; if Biden wins it, he's probably won enough other states that it doesn't really matter.

Which is, strictly speaking, also true of Texas, but Texas is more notable because of laughably implausible a Republican victory without Texas would be; flipping it has been the Democrat's dream for years, whereas Ohio has always been a 'winnable in a good year' state for them.

Biden winning Texas would also send everyone the signal that Biden's won by enough that GOP attempts to steal the election will be futile, so there's a good chance they won't bother. Which has obvious utility.

Xopher001 Since: Jul, 2012
#336836: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:20:54 AM

[up][up][up]That's what everyone said last time when we assumed Trump would lose based on flawed polling information. The GOP will find some way to cling on, and the moment Trump is out will swear up and down they never supported him

Edited by Xopher001 on Nov 2nd 2020 at 6:21:12 PM

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#336837: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:21:26 AM

Not necessarily — the Rust Belt Midwest will still have a large proportion of whites without a college degree compared to the country as a whole. Biden seems to be doing well enough to counter that this year, but going forward it will be a challenge for Democrats to remain in control in the region outside of Chicago.

To me, it seems more like a case of the Midwest becoming more Republican while the New South/Southwest shifts towards Democrat.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336838: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:21:59 AM

I wouldn't say it's their final chance to be elected, that's too definitive a statement, but trends are certainly not looking good for them. That's also why comprehensive voting reform (and finding a way to get rid of the electoral college) is really important, the GOP knows that when more people vote they tend to lose. So if the democrats remove all the things that are stacking the deck in the GOP's favor to make for genuinely fair elections, their prospects become dim since they've made no effort to broaden out their base.

Kayeka (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#336839: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:22:02 AM

NVM, [nja] to hell

Edited by Kayeka on Nov 2nd 2020 at 5:22:16 PM

Balmung Since: Oct, 2011
#336840: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:27:18 AM

Republicans REALLY needs a firm slap in the face. They are too high on drug called Trump

Obligatory reminder that Trump is a symptom, not the disease. The party has been injecting white supremacism into their veins long before 2016.

ciyinwanderer Since: Dec, 2018
#336841: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:32:21 AM

As someone living in Ohio... I don't have high hopes for us going to Biden. It's in the realm of possibility, but I've noticed a new infusion of Trump ads recently and even in my generally liberal area there are still a lot of Trump signs around (thank you neighbors for letting me know which of you I'm not safe around).

This signature was thumped to preserve the dignity of the moderators.
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336842: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:32:36 AM

That's why people have been concerned about what the GOP is going to field out after Trump. The xenophobia, white grievance politics, etc isn't going away, the GOP have made their bed and now they have to sleep in it. You just know there's someone just as vile, but better at hiding it and more competent, just waiting in the wings.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Nov 2nd 2020 at 1:33:44 PM

speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#336843: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:33:59 AM

Ohio, going to Biden? Please.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336844: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:35:08 AM

[up][up][up]Just a general reminder that anecdotes like that don't mean much for these discussions. I get your worries, but I still feel the need to say that.

DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#336845: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:35:37 AM

The Supreme Court in a 7-1 Decision has ruled that Cops can not sue Black Lives Matter for violent actions of individuals involved with them; In 2016 a Police Officer was struck with a Rock by a BLM activist resulting in physical harm. The Officer sued both the Activist and the organization, and while a lower court ruled that the officer couldn't sue BLM, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit ruled that the lawsuit could go ahead. The Supreme Court in an unsigned opinion ruled that the Circuit Court was wrong and needed to re-evaluate the case. Clarence Thomas was the only dissent; Amy Coney Barrett abstained from the case.

nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#336846: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:35:40 AM

Over 95 million people have voted across the US so far, putting turnout at 37%, i.e. higher than in 2014, with Election Day voting still left.

Edit: Sorry, forgot to put the link in before posting.

Edited by nova92 on Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:36:07 AM

Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#336847: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:35:55 AM

Ohio's almost perfectly neck and neck, according to 538. Do not be dismissive of the possibility of either outcome there.

AlleyOop Since: Oct, 2010
#336848: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:36:38 AM

The Republicans have enough institutional inertia from decades of gaming the system that they aren't going away for a good amount of time even if demographics do change. It's that entrenched in the system, as seen by their recent Supreme Court nominations, unless Democrats can somehow steamroll voting reforms through.

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336849: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:37:23 AM

Yeah, people talk about signs a lot in these types of discussions but it's important to note that

a) while anecdotes affect us much more strongly because they're what happens to us directly, they can never paint the whole picture.

b) A lot of Biden supporters feel afraid of hanging up signs because they don't want to be victims of violence or have their property defaced. So in some way this can create a skewed impression of support since the trumpers are much more vocal about it, but it doesn't necessarily mean there are more of them.

Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#336850: Nov 2nd 2020 at 8:44:17 AM

So, could we realistically say that this election is the Republicans' final chance to be elected with the way demographics are changing and that's why they're so desperate to steal it so they can prevent future elections from going the Democrats' way?

Haha, no. Not even close. The systemic, horrifying manners in which the U.S electoral system is rigged are still there. One could hope Biden could start chipping away at it, but there was no such promise in his campaign.

Not to mention: all those republicans who are all anti trump right now? And who will claim they stood up against him once he's gone and every dirty laundy is aired? they will claim they stood up against him.

All the while, going back to a Trump era with the difference that they don't say the quiet part out loud. All those Lincoln project people are happy to support Trump's policies just not his aesthetic.

Edited by Aszur on Nov 2nd 2020 at 10:44:35 AM

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes

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