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Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

If you're new to OTC, it's worth reading the Introduction to On-Topic Conversations and the On-Topic Conversations debate guidelines before posting here.

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In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.

Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Eschaton Since: Jul, 2010
#336751: Nov 1st 2020 at 7:35:31 PM

Of course, the same people blocking the highways now are also the same people who want to make it legal to run over protesters when they march on a highway.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336752: Nov 1st 2020 at 7:36:04 PM

Trump can still win.

Basically Nate Silver explaining why 538 projects a 10% chance of a Trump win while also acknowledging the possibility that, yes, under certain circumstances that Trump could win illegitimately and they can't really account for that.

CookingCat Since: Jul, 2018
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#336754: Nov 1st 2020 at 7:41:25 PM

[up] Immediate thought before looking at link: Trump's crews or ours? (It's Trump's, but I'm amused by the idea of anti-Trump protesters walling him in)

Edited by sgamer82 on Nov 1st 2020 at 7:42:22 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#336755: Nov 1st 2020 at 7:42:04 PM

What is it with rich people and their obsession with walls?

Disgusted, but not surprised
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#336756: Nov 1st 2020 at 7:44:43 PM

Trump's bunkering down. He knows the actions he is going to take from November 3rd forward will potentially make him a target of violent reprisal.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Voltron64 Since: Jul, 2016
#336757: Nov 1st 2020 at 7:48:42 PM

[up][up]

A). They're cowards. B). It's a goddamn security blanket.

Edited by Voltron64 on Nov 1st 2020 at 8:48:49 AM

ScubaWolf from South Carolina Since: Feb, 2020
#336758: Nov 1st 2020 at 7:49:06 PM

[up][up] Won't help him if the Pentagon decides enough is enough. That of course is completely hypothetical, and we won't know what's going to happen. We're literally at the endgame.

Edited by ScubaWolf on Nov 1st 2020 at 10:49:13 AM

"In a move surprising absolutely no one"
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336759: Nov 1st 2020 at 7:56:02 PM

I’m getting really scared. I need to like, bar myself from the internet for at least the next day and a half.

I was disgusted when Bush was re-elected in 2004, but this feels dangerous on a completely different level. Like there won’t be a 2024 election, at least not a meaningful one, if Trump wins this year.

Trump’s rhetoric isn’t even like a typical racist Republican dogwhistle. It’s like Rwanda or Serbia. I do not want to see how much worse America can get.

Edited by Galadriel on Nov 1st 2020 at 10:58:30 AM

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#336760: Nov 1st 2020 at 8:04:48 PM

[up][up] Somehow I don’t think we should be hoping for a military coup. I’ll also point out that “we don’t know what will happen” doesn’t mean “literally anything could happen”.

I don’t really see anything wrong with protecting the White House, there will almost certainly be protests there in the next few months and the next occupant would probably appreciate the place being kept in good condition.

Edited by archonspeaks on Nov 1st 2020 at 8:05:17 AM

They should have sent a poet.
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#336761: Nov 1st 2020 at 8:05:45 PM

The big difference between Bush's re-election and a potential re-election of Trump is that Bush actually had high approval rating in the aftermath of 9/11. Trump is in the exact opposite boat due how poorly he handled COVID.

If the Trump Administration had handled the pandemic even remotely competently, Trump could have sailed to re-election and little could have stopped him.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#336762: Nov 1st 2020 at 8:09:21 PM

And the economy was still decent in 04, and the Iraq War was divisive as opposed to the general quagmire consensus that emerged by 06.

Trump has no ace in his hand beyond saying "the economy was sorta good before COVID and my botched response utterly fucked it".

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336763: Nov 1st 2020 at 8:11:27 PM

And Bush actually won the popular vote in 2004, I think.

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336764: Nov 1st 2020 at 8:14:10 PM

[up] Yes. Only time in the last 20 years that the Republicans won the popular vote.

My fears aren’t directed at the likelihood of the Republicans winning now relative the likelihood in 2004, but at the severity of the consequences if they do.

Edited by Galadriel on Nov 1st 2020 at 11:14:54 AM

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336765: Nov 1st 2020 at 8:15:42 PM

I'm not saying it was good he won, just pointing out that at least on the second go around he has claim of actual legitimacy/will of the people, for better or worse.

tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#336766: Nov 1st 2020 at 8:18:18 PM

I just took a look at GWB's Gallup approval ratings and he had some large jumps after 9/11, the start of the Iraq War, and after Saddam Hussein's execution, but outside of that, his approval kept slipping to the absolute lows at the beginning and end of October 2008, obviously due to the just starting Great Recession.

The only other major dips compared to his slipping approval are one in early May 2006, likely coinciding with the third anniversary of the Iraq War, and another one I can't seem to pin a reason to right after Independence Day 2007.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Codafett Knows-Many-Things Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Waiting for you *wink*
Knows-Many-Things
#336767: Nov 1st 2020 at 8:56:34 PM

I often think about the "Silent Majority" and whether or not they're nearly as numerous as conservatives think they are. Whenever that comes up, it's worth remembering that Trump's victory in 2016 was a combination of luck, voter apathy and him looking like an (entertaining) alternative to actual politicians.

Those factors are no longer relevant. Thanks to the pandemic eliminating distractions + 4 years of people being pissed off he's lost his edge.

Just Having Fun
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#336768: Nov 1st 2020 at 9:09:51 PM

Aside from the fact that polls are now weighting for education as its own factor, there's also the much, much smaller pool of undecided voters. Late-deciding voters primarily breaking for Trump over Clinton is what caused everything to be a few % off.

It seems unlikely that the this-time much smaller group is going to split the same way.

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336769: Nov 1st 2020 at 9:13:24 PM

The "silent majority" argument really just means "deep down everyone shares our beliefs but they're too afraid to come out and say it". But we don't have any data to suggest that's true. Hillary won the popular vote, by a margin of over 2 million.

At most, I would say there's a decently large chunk of people who don't want to have an opinion on the subject or enable conservatives because they don't want to deal with the "drama" or take sides. But as far as them being an actual majority, that's clearly not true.

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#336770: Nov 1st 2020 at 9:40:12 PM

My dad sent me a picture from some family friends in California showing a notice from the LAPD asking businesses to close early on Tuesday as they plan to station cops around to keep a lid on expected violence. Can anyone out west verify?

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#336771: Nov 1st 2020 at 9:50:41 PM

I took a quick look just now of the LA subreddit and nothing there.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#336772: Nov 1st 2020 at 10:04:49 PM

Looked a little more carefully at the notice — the notice itself is from the LA Industrial District BID.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
singularityshot Since: Dec, 2012
#336773: Nov 1st 2020 at 10:08:32 PM

Irony - it's always been an argument that election day should be a national holiday to allow people to vote i.e. businesses should be closed if possible.

Trump's bellicose rhetoric inflaming tensions has resulted in the same effect, of closing businesses on election day...

Imca (Veteran)
#336774: Nov 1st 2020 at 10:37:06 PM

Making it a holiday actually has the opposite effect and encourages low wage workers NOT to vote, so I am legitimatly suprised republicians haven't pushed for it HARD, since it would look like they are doing something, while there actualy skewing the elections in there favor, its a PR win and an actual win.

Before you wonder "Wait why would that help republicans, it means the people are free to go vote", no it doesn't.... US workers get paid double overtime to work on holidays, businesses don't close outside of christmas...

...

Double overtime when your already living pay check to paycheck turns it from a "I would like to do it but I dont know if I can find the time" to "Hell no I need that money to live"

CookingCat Since: Jul, 2018
#336775: Nov 1st 2020 at 10:45:25 PM

[up] Why are you giving them ideas?


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