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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
One thing that's important to keep in mind on election night is that of all the major "undecided" states (basically OH, GA, FL, NC, and TX which is a long shot for Biden but has a huge number of electoral college votes), if any of them goes for Biden then that virtually clinches the election for him. On the flip side, Trump has to win all of them to have a solid chance at winning.
Playing around with 538's interactive map
: giving all five of those states to Trump puts the model's results at 51 in 100 chance for a Trump win, 47 in 100 chance for a Biden win. Giving Joe Biden any one of those states puts him at 99 chance in 100 to win.
The chances of at least one of those "too close to call" states going to Biden are pretty good; the chances of all of them going for Trump, while not impossible, isn't likely.
Edited by NativeJovian on Oct 31st 2020 at 7:40:16 AM
Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.So someone linked a few days ago a study basically showing how the Republican Party is much closer to far-right authoritarian parties in Western Democracies, instead of the more general center-right ones, but here's a Vox article spelling that out in terms that are easier to understand, at least to me.
When all's said and done, Trump's greatest successes of his entire life will be two assholes and a token cunt, as Larry Flynt would describe SCOTUS appointees such as his. The rest of his administration's achievements, I'm confident, will be treated the way he's been treating the Obama administration's achievements, and he will go down in history as the most corrupt, racist, and un-American President of all time—more corrupt than Bucky and Tricky Dick, more racist than Woody, and more un-American than Benny Arnold, not to mention the greatest failure as a businessman in all American history.
Edited by ryanasaurus0077 on Oct 31st 2020 at 7:50:53 AM
Edited by tclittle on Oct 31st 2020 at 6:50:26 AM
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."At any rate, I'll say this for Dubya: at least he nominated both his SCOTUS judges after winning the popular vote in 2004, which gives them at least some semblance of legitimacy. Four more years of Trump getting any more chances to ram nominees in, and SCOTUS will, on top of a newfound illegitimacy, end up right where it was as the Marshall Court—unpopular and powerless.
Edited by ryanasaurus0077 on Oct 31st 2020 at 8:13:37 AM
I got most of those nicknames. But which one is "Bucky"?
ASAB: All Sponsors Are Bad.Playing around with 538's interactive map: giving all five of those states to Trump puts the model's results at 51 in 100 chance for a Trump win, 47 in 100 chance for a Biden win. Giving Joe Biden any one of those states puts him at 99 chance in 100 to win.
The chances of at least one of those "too close to call" states going to Biden are pretty good; the chances of all of them going for Trump, while not impossible, isn't likely.
Honestly, I don't find this very encouraging, because I just don't like these odds. I'm fully expecting all five of those states to break for Trump, in which case it most likely all comes down to Pennsylvania. And the election hanging on the results of one state amid all the bullshit Republicans are trying to pull would be a recipe for disaster.
I certainly hope the results are more clear-cut than this, but I'm not getting those hopes up too high.
Edited by Eschaton on Oct 31st 2020 at 5:23:08 AM
Yeah, it seems this election is anything but a sure thing right now with all these schemes going on from the Republicans.
No, the election is not "anything but a sure thing". Trump has a path to victory, but it's one that's not anywhere close to plausible.
It's not 100% for Biden winning, but it's still very high.
Even if we get the exact same polling error as 2016 Biden could still win strongly
.
Honestly, I don't find this very encouraging, because I just don't like these odds. I'm fully expecting all five of those states to break for Trump, in which case it most likely all comes down to Pennsylvania. And the election hanging on the results of one state amid all the bullshit Republicans are trying to pull could be a recipe for disaster.
I... you are aware all five states are Red states? Right? That they're all up for grabs is an absolutely horrible sign for the Republicans. Those aren't bad odds for us.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 31st 2020 at 5:21:33 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang![]()
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Not to mention that, regardless of the actual results, Trump is certain to scream bloody murder about "fraud", and it'll go to the Supreme Court, who'll just go "lol Trump is still president anyway".
Edited by BrainSewage on Oct 31st 2020 at 7:23:22 AM
How dare you disrupt the sanctity of my soliloquy?Not to mention that, regardless of the actual results, Trump is certain to scream bloody murder about "fraud", and it'll go to the Supreme Court, who'll just go "lol Trump is still president anyway".
This is not how the Supreme Court works. It has no fundamental coercive power, the sole source of its power is its legitimacy. The moment that is gone so goes all its influence. This means that if they what you're doing Biden would become President anyway and the public would call for court-packing.
Frankly I wish they'd be stupid enough to try this.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang[[/quoteblock]]I... you are aware all five states are Red states? Right? That they're all up for grabs is an absolutely horrible sign for the Republicans. Those aren't bad odds for us.[[/quoteblock]]
I mean, calling them all Red States is inaccurate. Like, two of them fully red, but the other three are pretty swingy even outside of Presidential context.
It's still not good for Trump, though.
Edited by LSBK on Oct 31st 2020 at 7:25:51 AM
Since you were talking about Stephen Miller a few pages back, read this article where he get's schooled by his own uncle on immigration
Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavianmean, calling them all Red States is inaccurate. Like, two of them fully red, but the other three are pretty swingy even outside of Presidential context.
It's still not good for Trump, though.
Fair enough.
Though my point stands, that Republicans have to worry about all five is a sign that they're in a very bad situation. Using it as a sign for worry on our side doesn't really make sense electorally.
(I realize you said it's not good for Trump, I'm just re-iterating my argument)
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 31st 2020 at 5:27:33 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangReally, these discussions really make me wish that people could understand that "I have a feeling" is not a valid argument, and I mean that going both ways.
If you're feeling bad or nervous about things I don't want to belittle your concerns, and if you're feeling optimistic I'm glad for your mental health, but people really should learn that personal anecdotes and the like actually mean very little, and in the face of people consistently explaining to you why things are different (or why they're not a sure thing) just going "But 2016/I have a bad feeling" is not a productive argument, and a bit of a waste of time in actual discussion.
Edited by LSBK on Oct 31st 2020 at 7:37:41 AM
Yeah, I agree with this.
I get that 2016 has left a lot of people traumatized and paranoid (and I promise you everyone is worried) but I think it's important to try and not let that affect all your judgment and make you paranoid about any sign that may or may not point towards the worst happening. If it does, that bridge will be crossed when we get to it. I'm not a US citizen so I can't really influence the race in a substantial way but if you are one and are worrying about the swing states it might be worth reiterating Parable's suggestion to donate or contribute if you can.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 31st 2020 at 9:37:27 AM
I’ll admit, my mind is definitely activating a defense mechanism that can only be classified as unhealthy optimism right now, but being aware of it, I can at least stop myself from offering what would only end up being “not helping” in the thread.
My musician pageIf we can move to something more concrete than our collective dread, who is doing what on election day?
Who is staying up with their eyes glued to their screens all night?
Who is going to bed early and will see the results next morning?
And who among us are liars who say they're going to bed early but will actually be glued to their screens all night?

Come November 3rd, I'm just gonna play video games and ignore the world around me, no matter who ends up winning.
Somebody once told me the world was macaroni, I took a bite out of a tree