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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Are you really suggesting a Republican prosecute wouldn't press charges for a Democratic candidate? That is quite a claim to make. If the US justice system is really that far gone, I'm not sure Biden stands a chance of fixing anything.
If you've been paying attention you'd know that a Republican absolutely cannot be trusted to maintain the rule of law. No more than someone from any of the nationalist-authoritarian parties of Poland, Hungary, Turkey, or Russia.
The rest of your post is nonsense, what's far gone is the Republican Party. Once we push electoral reform they'll improve or perish electorally.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangI just want to point out that we have a recent study
that basically spelled this out, which I posted a few days ago.
@Fourthspartan: How does Georgia look to you? Are you feeling like there’s a legitimate chance of it going Democratic?
I live in a heavily African-American (read: Democrat) area and thus my personal experience is going to be skewed in favor of Dems. Like everyone else, I go by polling, which suggests that Georgia is very much in play. And because early vote counting was started as early as October 19th we should know which direction Georgia is going fairly quickly.
I just want to point out that we have a recent study that basically spelled this out, which I posted a few days ago.
Indeed, that's exactly what I was thinking about when I wrote that post.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 31st 2020 at 12:10:40 PM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangIf Georgia does go blue, it likely means that Biden has won clear victories in enough swing states to take the entire election. So we might be able to go to sleep in relative comfort this Tuesday.
And hopefully the Dems can pick up at least one of the two Senate seats there.
Edited by Rationalinsanity on Oct 31st 2020 at 4:33:18 PM
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.| 100: | Trying to buy Greenland |
| 99: | Talking sex with boy scouts |
| 98: | Proposing military parade |
| 97: | Getting policy advice at Mar-a-lago |
| 96: | No "thank you" for John Mc Cain funeral |
| 95: | Suggesting rep. John Dingell is in hell |
| 94: | Shoving foreign leader |
| 93: | Retaliating against sanctuary cities |
| 92: | Violating Presidential Records Act |
| 91: | Threatening to attack heritage sites |
| 90: | Apologizing for Hitler |
| 89: | Firing Scaramucci after ten days |
| 88: | Ivanka's China trademarks |
| 87: | Hiding visitor logs |
| 86: | Asking black reporter for meeting with Congressional Black Caucus |
| 85: | Not realizing Frederick Douglas is dead |
| 84: | Giving Rush Limbaugh medal of freedom |
| 83: | Obsessing over bathrooms |
| 82: | Telling Greta Thunberg she's too angry |
| 81: | Accusing Joe Biden of drug abuse |
| 80: | Meeting Kanye |
| 79: | Blaming FBI for Parkland |
| 78: | Messing with Post Office |
| 77: | Melania trashing Christmas |
| 76: | Cashing in on the presidency |
| 75: | Exaggerating inauguration crowd |
| 74: | NRA funneling Russian money |
| 73: | Lavish spending at Dept. of Health and Human Services |
| 72: | Lavish spending at Environmental Protection Agency |
| 71: | Lavish spending at Interior Dept. |
| 70: | Lavish spending at State dept. |
| 69: | Friendly companies getting no-bid contracts |
| 68: | Acting Attorney General's 'scam' company |
| 67: | Violating the Hatch Act |
| 66: | Storming out of bipartisan meeting |
| 65: | Purging "disloyal" fed. workers |
| 64: | Breaking clearance protocol |
| 63: | Violating federal records law |
| 62: | Labor secretary resigning over Epstein deal |
| 61: | Staff secretary abuse allegations |
| 60: | Botched raid in Yemen |
| 59: | Blaming California for fires |
| 58: | Calling for boycotts of US companies |
| 57: | Encouraging police brutality |
| 56: | Proposing violent border security |
| 55: | Threatening sanctuary cities |
| 54: | Name-calling |
| 53: | Accusing Obama of wiretapping |
| 52: | Refusing to denounce Qanon |
| 51: | Sharpiegate |
| 50: | Trying to expose whistleblowers |
| 49: | Dodging taxes |
| 48: | Firing officials for impeachment testimony |
| 47: | Racist attacks on "the squad" |
| 46: | Insulting developing countries |
| 45: | Escalating tension with North Korea |
| 44: | Undermining census |
| 43: | Criminals on campaign staff |
| 42: | Blacklisting "climate change" |
| 41: | Selling out the Kurds |
| 40: | Attacking Colin Kaepernick |
| 39: | Disconcerting mental state |
| 38: | Suspicious business ties |
| 37: | Insulting veterans |
| 36: | Watching too much TV |
| 35: | Running corrupt foundation |
| 34: | Spilling secrets to Russians |
| 33: | Tweeting all the time |
| 32: | Pardoning undeserving criminals |
| 31: | Paying hush money for affairs |
| 30: | Creating travel ban |
| 29: | Endorsing alleged child molester |
| 28: | Ignoring Russian bounties on US troops |
| 27: | Mocking assault victim |
| 26: | Condoning white supremacy |
| 25: | Shady tax schemes |
| 24: | Attacking protesters |
| 23: | Demonizing immigrants |
| 22: | Conditions at migrant detention centers |
| 21: | Firing "disloyal" Sally Yates |
| 20: | Firing Inspectors General |
| 19: | Making Pentagon pay for the Wall |
| 18: | Abandoning Puerto Rico after storm |
| 17: | Encouraging Uyghur concentration camps |
| 16: | Cozying up to dictators |
| 15: | Inventing voter fraud |
| 14: | Constant slacking off |
| 13: | Discrediting the media |
| 12: | Undermining judges |
| 11: | Pathological lying |
| 10: | Skipping intel briefings |
| 9: | Attacking mail-in voting |
| 8: | Encouraging Russian meddling |
| 7: | Obstruction of justice |
| 6: | Protecting Khashoggi's killers |
| 5: | Sexual assault allegations |
| 4: | Separating families at border |
| 3: | Ukraine quid pro quo |
| 2: | Botched pandemic response |
| 1: | Despite all this, he's still president! |
Man, that's a long list.
Granted, some of these are kinda the same thing, or just general rudeness and ignorance. Also, some of these are rather debatable. I think abandoning the Kurds is definitely worse than insulting veterans or watching TV, for one.
Edited by Redmess on Oct 31st 2020 at 9:06:09 AM
Hope shines brightest in the darkest times![]()
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Yeah, honestly there's enough key states that, due to counting absentee ballots early, will be called Tuesday night for us to have a good idea as to how the election is going to pan out.
So while we might not know the precise final count for a week or so, I think there's a 70%+ chance who gets over 270 electoral votes will be a forgone conclusion.
If Biden wins solidly (i.e., gets one or more of North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, or Arizona - all of which are genuine tossups within about 1-3% in the polls), and wins them widely enough that no recounts will be needed, we’ll know election night.
If Biden loses a state where he should be safe - say, New Hampshire - then we can conclude on election night that the polls are way off and Trump has won.
But if it’s close and comes down to the midwest (where Biden is polling with bigger leads then in the tossup states: +8 in WI and MI, +5 in PA), we could be waiting for days for them to count all the mail-in ballots.
The thing to remember about NC and GA is that all the mail-in and early voting ballots - over 90% of 2016 turnout - will have already been counted and be announced as soon as the polls close, but there will be a major red shift as the election-day ballots are counted, so don’t get too excited by the first announcements.
Edited by Galadriel on Oct 31st 2020 at 4:43:27 AM
I've put a Post-It note on my computer with "TRUMP WILL WIN AGAIN" printed in big letters.
Pessimistic I know, especially when things are looking pretty good, but I'm just preparing myself. I don't want to experience the painful blow of 2016 again.
This way, if he does win, it'll be upsetting but expected. If Biden wins, it'll be a pleasant surprise and a relief
The hardest thing in this world is to live in it.
I had something of the mindset of "prepare for and assume the worst" but since the polls have gotten better and more detailed for Biden this last month, the logical part of my brain eventually won out and removed the "assume" part.
And here is 538's map of what the election looks like if there is a Trump favoring 2016 sized polling error.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520
Having (barely) passed Masters' level statistics...I find it hard to believe that the polls will be wrong enough in enough places for Trump to eke out a win.
Edited by Rationalinsanity on Oct 31st 2020 at 5:29:24 AM
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.A couple of days ago someone posted data showing that black early voter turnout this year has already surpassed total voting in 2016 by a wide-margin. But anyway, I don't see the logic in saying you're skeptical of what is only being presented as a possibility based off of data. No one is claiming either is definitive.
Edited by LSBK on Oct 31st 2020 at 3:35:25 AM
I had thought Texas was the only state that had already passed 100% of 2016 turnout, but I was mistaken.
Hawaii is already at 110% of 2016 turnout, with 484,000 votes cast compared to 429,000 in 2016. That’s even more than in 2008 (453,000).
And there are still 300,000 mail-in-ballots outstanding there (granted, some of those may be people who requested a ballot and didn’t bother to vote.)
Edited by Galadriel on Oct 31st 2020 at 4:37:33 AM
I think it merits pointing out that at this moment, according to 538, biden has a 58% chance of winning georgia and a 37% chance of winning texas. So texas I would not put so much stock in biden winning (although it's plausible) but georgia is actually slightly in his favor.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 31st 2020 at 5:44:07 AM
Counting started Oct 19 in Georgia - so they should be counted already by election day and announced as soon as polls close.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
As a result, it may look heavily blue at first, but shift red as election-day votes are counted, as Republicans are more likely than Dems to say they will vote on election day rather than in advance,
Edited by Galadriel on Oct 31st 2020 at 4:51:05 AM
![]()
from 538
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 31st 2020 at 5:49:54 AM
Alleged Trump supporters surround a Biden-Harris campaign bus, forcing Dems to cancel the event.
This is why another 4 years of Trump is unacceptable. These "supporters" are terror groups that are trying to bully people out of voting for the opposition. I shudder to think what they'll get up to if they feel empowered by another victory.
Just Having Fun

Joe Biden: "Who let all these people into my basement?"
It's Biden at a drive-in rally with plenty of supporters coming to see him.