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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#336376: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:36:37 AM

Joe Biden: "Who let all these people into my basement?"

It's Biden at a drive-in rally with plenty of supporters coming to see him.

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#336377: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:46:58 AM

Are you really suggesting a Republican prosecute wouldn't press charges for a Democratic candidate? That is quite a claim to make. If the US justice system is really that far gone, I'm not sure Biden stands a chance of fixing anything.

If you've been paying attention you'd know that a Republican absolutely cannot be trusted to maintain the rule of law. No more than someone from any of the nationalist-authoritarian parties of Poland, Hungary, Turkey, or Russia.

The rest of your post is nonsense, what's far gone is the Republican Party. Once we push electoral reform they'll improve or perish electorally.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336378: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:51:28 AM

@Fourthspartan: How does Georgia look to you? Are you feeling like there’s a legitimate chance of it going Democratic?

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336379: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:52:37 AM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336380: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:55:04 AM

If you've been paying attention you'd know that a Republican absolutely cannot be trusted to maintain the rule of law. No more than someone from any of the nationalist-authoritarian parties of Poland, Hungary, Turkey, or Russia.

I just want to point out that we have a recent study that basically spelled this out, which I posted a few days ago.

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#336381: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:56:37 AM

The President frankly doesn’t have any say over local prosecutors. Besides the fact that Presidents can’t direct prosecution as a rule, DA is an elected position in Texas and they’re more concerned about their voters.

They should have sent a poet.
TitanJump Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Singularity
#336382: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:58:21 AM

[up][up][up] Trump was projecting hard when he accused a potential Hillary-presidency of ending up being "nothing but investigation after investigation!" back in 2016...

As always.

Edited by TitanJump on Oct 31st 2020 at 7:58:48 PM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#336383: Oct 31st 2020 at 12:09:22 PM

@Fourthspartan: How does Georgia look to you? Are you feeling like there’s a legitimate chance of it going Democratic?

I live in a heavily African-American (read: Democrat) area and thus my personal experience is going to be skewed in favor of Dems. Like everyone else, I go by polling, which suggests that Georgia is very much in play. And because early vote counting was started as early as October 19th we should know which direction Georgia is going fairly quickly.

I just want to point out that we have a recent study that basically spelled this out, which I posted a few days ago.

Indeed, that's exactly what I was thinking about when I wrote that post.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 31st 2020 at 12:10:40 PM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#336384: Oct 31st 2020 at 12:28:45 PM

If Georgia does go blue, it likely means that Biden has won clear victories in enough swing states to take the entire election. So we might be able to go to sleep in relative comfort this Tuesday.tongue

And hopefully the Dems can pick up at least one of the two Senate seats there.

Edited by Rationalinsanity on Oct 31st 2020 at 4:33:18 PM

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336385: Oct 31st 2020 at 12:33:52 PM

I tend to be skeptical about the idea of the Dems winning Georgia or Texas because it seems predicated on the idea that African-Americans and Latinos will vote at the same rates as whites. Which, due to voter suppression, has not been the case in past elections.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336386: Oct 31st 2020 at 12:35:35 PM

     Trump's 100 most tremendous scandals 

100: Trying to buy Greenland
99: Talking sex with boy scouts
98: Proposing military parade
97: Getting policy advice at Mar-a-lago
96: No "thank you" for John Mc Cain funeral
95: Suggesting rep. John Dingell is in hell
94: Shoving foreign leader
93: Retaliating against sanctuary cities
92: Violating Presidential Records Act
91: Threatening to attack heritage sites
90: Apologizing for Hitler
89: Firing Scaramucci after ten days
88: Ivanka's China trademarks
87: Hiding visitor logs
86: Asking black reporter for meeting with Congressional Black Caucus
85: Not realizing Frederick Douglas is dead
84: Giving Rush Limbaugh medal of freedom
83: Obsessing over bathrooms
82: Telling Greta Thunberg she's too angry
81: Accusing Joe Biden of drug abuse
80: Meeting Kanye
79: Blaming FBI for Parkland
78: Messing with Post Office
77: Melania trashing Christmas
76: Cashing in on the presidency
75: Exaggerating inauguration crowd
74: NRA funneling Russian money
73: Lavish spending at Dept. of Health and Human Services
72: Lavish spending at Environmental Protection Agency
71: Lavish spending at Interior Dept.
70: Lavish spending at State dept.
69: Friendly companies getting no-bid contracts
68: Acting Attorney General's 'scam' company
67: Violating the Hatch Act
66: Storming out of bipartisan meeting
65: Purging "disloyal" fed. workers
64: Breaking clearance protocol
63: Violating federal records law
62: Labor secretary resigning over Epstein deal
61: Staff secretary abuse allegations
60: Botched raid in Yemen
59: Blaming California for fires
58: Calling for boycotts of US companies
57: Encouraging police brutality
56: Proposing violent border security
55: Threatening sanctuary cities
54: Name-calling
53: Accusing Obama of wiretapping
52: Refusing to denounce Qanon
51: Sharpiegate
50: Trying to expose whistleblowers
49: Dodging taxes
48: Firing officials for impeachment testimony
47: Racist attacks on "the squad"
46: Insulting developing countries
45: Escalating tension with North Korea
44: Undermining census
43: Criminals on campaign staff
42: Blacklisting "climate change"
41: Selling out the Kurds
40: Attacking Colin Kaepernick
39: Disconcerting mental state
38: Suspicious business ties
37: Insulting veterans
36: Watching too much TV
35: Running corrupt foundation
34: Spilling secrets to Russians
33: Tweeting all the time
32: Pardoning undeserving criminals
31: Paying hush money for affairs
30: Creating travel ban
29: Endorsing alleged child molester
28: Ignoring Russian bounties on US troops
27: Mocking assault victim
26: Condoning white supremacy
25: Shady tax schemes
24: Attacking protesters
23: Demonizing immigrants
22: Conditions at migrant detention centers
21: Firing "disloyal" Sally Yates
20: Firing Inspectors General
19: Making Pentagon pay for the Wall
18: Abandoning Puerto Rico after storm
17: Encouraging Uyghur concentration camps
16: Cozying up to dictators
15: Inventing voter fraud
14: Constant slacking off
13: Discrediting the media
12: Undermining judges
11: Pathological lying
10: Skipping intel briefings
9: Attacking mail-in voting
8: Encouraging Russian meddling
7: Obstruction of justice
6: Protecting Khashoggi's killers
5: Sexual assault allegations
4: Separating families at border
3: Ukraine quid pro quo
2: Botched pandemic response
1: Despite all this, he's still president!

Man, that's a long list.

Granted, some of these are kinda the same thing, or just general rudeness and ignorance. Also, some of these are rather debatable. I think abandoning the Kurds is definitely worse than insulting veterans or watching TV, for one.

Edited by Redmess on Oct 31st 2020 at 9:06:09 AM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Falrinn Since: Dec, 2014
#336387: Oct 31st 2020 at 12:54:55 PM

[up][up][up] Yeah, honestly there's enough key states that, due to counting absentee ballots early, will be called Tuesday night for us to have a good idea as to how the election is going to pan out.

So while we might not know the precise final count for a week or so, I think there's a 70%+ chance who gets over 270 electoral votes will be a forgone conclusion.

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336388: Oct 31st 2020 at 12:58:24 PM

Nate Silver said that he thinks that in the case of a Biden victory, there's a 60% chance we'll know on election night or wednesday morning, and a 30% chance it takes a while to figure out. Meanwhile most trump victories will not be known until a little ways off.

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336389: Oct 31st 2020 at 1:02:24 PM

If Biden wins solidly (i.e., gets one or more of North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, or Arizona - all of which are genuine tossups within about 1-3% in the polls), and wins them widely enough that no recounts will be needed, we’ll know election night.

If Biden loses a state where he should be safe - say, New Hampshire - then we can conclude on election night that the polls are way off and Trump has won.

But if it’s close and comes down to the midwest (where Biden is polling with bigger leads then in the tossup states: +8 in WI and MI, +5 in PA), we could be waiting for days for them to count all the mail-in ballots.

The thing to remember about NC and GA is that all the mail-in and early voting ballots - over 90% of 2016 turnout - will have already been counted and be announced as soon as the polls close, but there will be a major red shift as the election-day ballots are counted, so don’t get too excited by the first announcements.

Edited by Galadriel on Oct 31st 2020 at 4:43:27 AM

MrHellboy The Shadow from A world of my own Since: Dec, 2017 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
The Shadow
#336390: Oct 31st 2020 at 1:12:22 PM

I've put a Post-It note on my computer with "TRUMP WILL WIN AGAIN" printed in big letters.

Pessimistic I know, especially when things are looking pretty good, but I'm just preparing myself. I don't want to experience the painful blow of 2016 again.

This way, if he does win, it'll be upsetting but expected. If Biden wins, it'll be a pleasant surprise and a relief

The hardest thing in this world is to live in it.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#336391: Oct 31st 2020 at 1:26:48 PM

[up]I had something of the mindset of "prepare for and assume the worst" but since the polls have gotten better and more detailed for Biden this last month, the logical part of my brain eventually won out and removed the "assume" part.

And here is 538's map of what the election looks like if there is a Trump favoring 2016 sized polling error.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520

Having (barely) passed Masters' level statistics...I find it hard to believe that the polls will be wrong enough in enough places for Trump to eke out a win.

Edited by Rationalinsanity on Oct 31st 2020 at 5:29:24 AM

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#336392: Oct 31st 2020 at 1:30:54 PM

Isn't the expression "Prepare for the worst, hope for the best"?

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336393: Oct 31st 2020 at 1:32:24 PM

I tend to be skeptical about the idea of the Dems winning Georgia or Texas because it seems predicated on the idea that African-Americans and Latinos will vote at the same rates as whites. Which, due to voter suppression, has not been the case in past elections.

A couple of days ago someone posted data showing that black early voter turnout this year has already surpassed total voting in 2016 by a wide-margin. But anyway, I don't see the logic in saying you're skeptical of what is only being presented as a possibility based off of data. No one is claiming either is definitive.

Edited by LSBK on Oct 31st 2020 at 3:35:25 AM

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336394: Oct 31st 2020 at 1:35:36 PM

I had thought Texas was the only state that had already passed 100% of 2016 turnout, but I was mistaken.

Hawaii is already at 110% of 2016 turnout, with 484,000 votes cast compared to 429,000 in 2016. That’s even more than in 2008 (453,000).

And there are still 300,000 mail-in-ballots outstanding there (granted, some of those may be people who requested a ballot and didn’t bother to vote.)

Edited by Galadriel on Oct 31st 2020 at 4:37:33 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336395: Oct 31st 2020 at 1:42:45 PM

I think it merits pointing out that at this moment, according to 538, biden has a 58% chance of winning georgia and a 37% chance of winning texas. So texas I would not put so much stock in biden winning (although it's plausible) but georgia is actually slightly in his favor.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 31st 2020 at 5:44:07 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#336396: Oct 31st 2020 at 1:46:02 PM

When does Georgia count their mail in ballots?

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336397: Oct 31st 2020 at 1:49:27 PM

Counting started Oct 19 in Georgia - so they should be counted already by election day and announced as soon as polls close.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

As a result, it may look heavily blue at first, but shift red as election-day votes are counted, as Republicans are more likely than Dems to say they will vote on election day rather than in advance,

Edited by Galadriel on Oct 31st 2020 at 4:51:05 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336398: Oct 31st 2020 at 1:49:35 PM

[up][up]

Should be relatively quick. Counties were allowed to start processing absentee ballots on Oct. 19, and only ballots mailed from overseas may arrive after Nov. 3. “For races that aren’t too close, we’ll have those results” on election night, the secretary of state told WSB-TV. “For the races that are very, very close, we believe that we’ll have them by Wednesday or Thursday at the latest.”

from 538

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 31st 2020 at 5:49:54 AM

Codafett Knows-Many-Things Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Waiting for you *wink*
Knows-Many-Things
#336399: Oct 31st 2020 at 2:14:22 PM

Alleged Trump supporters surround a Biden-Harris campaign bus, forcing Dems to cancel the event.

This is why another 4 years of Trump is unacceptable. These "supporters" are terror groups that are trying to bully people out of voting for the opposition. I shudder to think what they'll get up to if they feel empowered by another victory.

Just Having Fun
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#336400: Oct 31st 2020 at 2:31:29 PM

[up][up][up] and [up][up] That's good. It may take a bit longer than usual but that probably means we'll know the results of Florida and Georgia by Wednesday morning at least. If they break for Biden then we'll all be on Cloud 9.


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