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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336351: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:13:23 AM

[up] Which means that them losing technically has a higher chance of predicting the election. grin

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#336352: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:14:27 AM

You have a point. In that case I'm all for football divination.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336353: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:20:30 AM

Divining the future out of sports statistics seems like the modern variant on number divination. I'm always a little surprised how much old pagan believes are still around despite paganism being a niche belief at best, even among Christians (though maybe not that surprising for Christians, considering their past).

And horoscopes are still popular, being printed in news papers and all.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#336354: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:21:23 AM

People suffering from uncertainty seek out proof that the universe has order and that things are related. It's basic human nature, but it is something we should train ourselves against.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Deadbeatloser22 from Disappeared by Space Magic (Great Old One) Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
#336355: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:22:03 AM

Isn't this Texas Sharpshooter rather than confirmation?

"Yup. That tasted purple."
Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#336356: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:25:22 AM

You have to keep in mind that, after The Primaries, a literal coin flip has a 50% chance of accurately predicting the election.

Leviticus 19:34
TitanJump Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Singularity
#336357: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:26:04 AM

Reminds me of the old times when people gutted fish and small animals in order to gaze at their entrails just to predict the weather of tomorrow...

...things such as superstitions are never going to be outgrown, huh?

...

It's just a few days left, I hope people are voting like mad until then...

Edited by TitanJump on Oct 31st 2020 at 6:26:25 PM

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#336358: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:30:10 AM

[up][up][up] Texas sharpshooter fallacy is a subset of confirmation bias. In confirmation bias, you see things that appear to predict events while ignoring things that don't. In Texas sharpshooter, you intentionally exclude contradictory evidence.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#336359: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:32:46 AM

And to the surprise of nobody, Trump has stated that he might keep holding his rallies even after the Election day until the results are in.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he keeps holding rallies even if he leaves office in January, either to further radicalize his base for a 2024 comeback run or to keep the Trumpism brand going for a different but similar candidate. Plus these rallies give him an easy outlet to fuel his ego, he's not going to give those up so easily.

Edited by speedyboris on Oct 31st 2020 at 10:34:32 AM

MichaelKatsuro Since: Apr, 2011
#336360: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:35:20 AM

[up] Yeah, that part worries me. I figured that he hated the duties of being president so much that he'd be happy to surrender them, but once you're used to something prestigious...

Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#336361: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:38:42 AM

Superstition probably won't go anywhere, and this makes a bit of sense when you think about human evolution.

Humans are kind of paranoid by nature and are very quick to spot patterns, even when there are none. This is because spotting a pattern where there is none is usually a lot less destructive than failing to spot a pattern that exists. That second mistake is frequently one you're only allowed to make once. You know how in stealth games the guards sometimes dismiss sounds as "just a rat", before getting killed? That's the natural selection here.

As such, humans are effectively coded on a neurological level to be very slow to accept the idea of coincidence or trivial and mundane explanations for events. If we see some tall grass move, it's difficult to dismiss it as the wind because that one time it's a predator is all takes.

With superstition: You're either wrong and have what's probably a mostly harmless eccentricity...or you're right and can manipulate destiny.

Leviticus 19:34
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#336362: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:40:06 AM

[up][up]Hates the Job, Loves the Limelight

re Washington Football Team: As mentioned before, it was a case of both overfitting and Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy — the prediction went haywire as soon as it was published in 2000, first by surreptitiously changing "winner" to "popular vote winner" before 2004, and then getting it wrong three of the past four elections under the modified rule.

Edited by megarockman on Oct 31st 2020 at 1:42:49 PM

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336363: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:47:49 AM

It's astonishing how much paganism there still is around just under the surface. I remember in Nijmegen, just a short travel into the forest there, you can find a wishing tree right next to a church ruin. A wishing tree is a special old tree where you hang a piece of clothing from a branch and make a wish. It had hundreds of pieces hanging from it, and not just on the lower branches.

And you think you live in a thoroughly Christian country... grin

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336365: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:50:49 AM

But Trump and his supporters are totally the ones for "law and order".

ScubaWolf from South Carolina Since: Feb, 2020
#336366: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:54:38 AM

[up][up] Sounds like the Biden campaign should press charges on them. If they want to play this game, then fine...start locking them up and making them face actual jail time and money loss for these actions.

"In a move surprising absolutely no one"
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336367: Oct 31st 2020 at 10:57:55 AM

Who says they won't?

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#336368: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:01:43 AM

If Biden wins does they definitely will after the election,but as long as Trump is President they probably won't,thats the feeling I have anyway

Edited by Ultimatum on Oct 31st 2020 at 6:02:06 PM

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336369: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:05:38 AM

I'm pretty sure Trump has zero say over whether or not Biden can press charges here.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#336370: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:11:23 AM

Biden also has zero say over whether or not charges will be pressed here. Only a prosecutor can press charges, people can report a crime but that’s no guarantee of anything.

I’d say it’s going to depend on how the election swings in Texas. There’s been a lot of progressive DAs getting elected in Texas recently, but they might be more willing to prosecute if they felt the state shifting their way.

Edited by archonspeaks on Oct 31st 2020 at 11:11:38 AM

They should have sent a poet.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336371: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:27:20 AM

Are you really suggesting a Republican prosecute wouldn't press charges for a Democratic candidate? That is quite a claim to make. If the US justice system is really that far gone, I'm not sure Biden stands a chance of fixing anything.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#336372: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:28:26 AM

This article highlights that Trump needs a polling error bigger the ones in 2016 to win. And across more states than that. If Biden were subject to a Clinton size error right, he's still forecasted to win over 300 Electoral Votes.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/polling-trump-biden-analysis/index.html

More I think about it, the more comfortable I feel about Biden carrying this. Yes, Trump still has a chance, but Biden is still comfortably ahead on many fronts. And polling errors can go in both directions.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#336373: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:28:50 AM

Local prosecutors, who are elected, are notoriously independent and subjective.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336374: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:32:14 AM

[up][up]to be frank, it wouldn't surprise me if the margin of error was on Biden's side in a few states. You have to consider that trump is coming into this in a severely weak position, in the middle of a national health crisis that he failed to do anything about, several scandals over the years, stoking division and unpleasantness in the national climate, etc. I'm pretty sure people are fed up with him by this point.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336375: Oct 31st 2020 at 11:35:28 AM

For a regular citizen maybe, but I don't really see any but the most rabid prosecutors risk their career going against a potential future president like that.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times

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