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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
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Do we know how many of those are Democrats, and how many are Republicans?
That could make things very complicated. Suppose election day comes, and since all the mail-in ballots haven't been counted yet, Trump decides that he's won because enough in-person voters voted for him? It would be in character for him to do so— he did, after all, say that he won the popular vote "if you ignore the millions of people who voted illegally".
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He's going to do that anyway, no matter what happens. But the states are the ones who get to decide when their races are called.
And of the important swing states, especially in the midwest, the democrats have a lot of people in office in important positions who will make trying to steal those races a lot more difficult.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:18:45 AM
Quick random question; is Wyoming really the most fervently Republican state? I know it doesn't really matter because only, like, five people live there, but while I was messing around with the 'explore the paths to victory' tool on the 538 site, for shits and giggles I concocted a wild pipe-dream scenario where Biden wins Pennsylvania, Texas and the entire Deep South (including Kentucky) and of all the remaining states to account for how this would affect their leaning, Wyoming was practically the only one that remained red. Or... pink.
Edited by PresidentStalkeyes on Oct 30th 2020 at 1:20:01 PM
Those sell-by-dates won't stop me because I can't read!
Only Nebraska's third district has a higher chance of a trump win than wyoming. 538 gives trump a 99% chance to win wyoming, but that being said there don't appear to be any recent high-quality polls for the state, i'm assuming because it's just not of interest since it's traditionally a deep-red state.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:24:17 AM
I've also been mapping out scenarios with 538's tool just to have an idea of what the paths of victory for each candidate are, and honestly it's reassuring. Biden has multiple viable paths even in less favorable scenarios, but trump has a pretty narrow one where he has to win a lot of states where he's very unpopular with a margin of error that's quite a bit larger than the one from 2016.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:38:37 AM
Speaking of the Five Thirty Eight scenario maker, I've been fiddling around with it too, mostly to see if there's any logical way for Biden to win without Pennsylvania. Turns out there is— if he can pick up either Arizona or Georgia.
Florida is quite a close race atm, Biden's lead is like 3-4 points over trump which is within margin of error. There is also the fact that AFAIK Florida is a GOP controlled state atm, which means more chances for the republicans to cheat if the election is close. One of the things that bears mentioning is Biden's favorability rating with seniors of which there are many in Florida, so that could be a factor in his favor.
We should know the results in Florida fairly soon unless the race is like Bush vs Gore level close in which case I wouldn't get my hopes up for biden prevailing there. Having said that, we already know Biden has prepared a strong legal team to challenge any shenanigans in Florida if it comes to that.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:51:51 AM
The thing is, barring a complete doomer scenario, it's not super likely that this will go up to the supreme court unless the race is going to be decided by a very close race in a particular state. People bring up Bush vs Gore in 2000 but that was dealing with margins of under 1000 votes, which is very, very small. 538 has a supreme court recount possibility as 5%, which while technically possible is one of the least likely outcomes of the election.
Also, while I don't want to dismiss the possibility that the supreme court would steal the election for Trump, it also wouldn't surprise me if the GOP would be happy to ditch him for now and just start preparing for the rehabilitation efforts of their image for the midterms and elections in 2024. Mitch Mc Connell seems resigned to losing since he said that he expects much of what they've accomplished in the last few years will be undone by this election, with the exception of his supreme court picks.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 11:01:42 AM
I assume because the people voted that they be proportioned that way. It's not like they have to be winner-take-all.
Maine (since 1972) and Nebraska (since 1992) passed laws to divvy up their electoral votes so that whoever wins each congressional district gets one of their EVs, with the statewide winner getting the two extra from the Senate. Other states have used this or similar methods in the past, mainly in the 19th Century. It's only been Republicans at various state legislatures who've been pushing for this in the past ten years.
Edited by megarockman on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:15:11 AM
The damned queen and the relentless knight.
