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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#336276: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:09:52 PM

[up][up] Do we know how many of those are Democrats, and how many are Republicans?

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336277: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:11:18 PM

[up]Broadly speaking, democrats favor mail-in voting over republicans whose votes will mostly be on election day.

ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#336278: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:15:33 PM

That could make things very complicated. Suppose election day comes, and since all the mail-in ballots haven't been counted yet, Trump decides that he's won because enough in-person voters voted for him? It would be in character for him to do so— he did, after all, say that he won the popular vote "if you ignore the millions of people who voted illegally".

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336279: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:16:35 PM

Trump can "declare" whatever he wants, that doesn't make it so. You are not the first person to bring up that scenario, and the answer hasn't changed.

Edited by LSBK on Oct 30th 2020 at 8:17:12 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336280: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:16:42 PM

[up][up]He's going to do that anyway, no matter what happens. But the states are the ones who get to decide when their races are called.

And of the important swing states, especially in the midwest, the democrats have a lot of people in office in important positions who will make trying to steal those races a lot more difficult.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:18:45 AM

PresidentStalkeyes Eats moldy bread and flies into windows from United Kingdom of England-land Since: Feb, 2016 Relationship Status: Do you like me? (Yes ⎕ Definitely ⎕ Absolutely!!! ⎕)
Eats moldy bread and flies into windows
#336281: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:18:40 PM

Quick random question; is Wyoming really the most fervently Republican state? I know it doesn't really matter because only, like, five people live there, but while I was messing around with the 'explore the paths to victory' tool on the 538 site, for shits and giggles I concocted a wild pipe-dream scenario where Biden wins Pennsylvania, Texas and the entire Deep South (including Kentucky) and of all the remaining states to account for how this would affect their leaning, Wyoming was practically the only one that remained red. Or... pink.

Edited by PresidentStalkeyes on Oct 30th 2020 at 1:20:01 PM

Those sell-by-dates won't stop me because I can't read!
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336282: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:22:02 PM

[up]Only Nebraska's third district has a higher chance of a trump win than wyoming. 538 gives trump a 99% chance to win wyoming, but that being said there don't appear to be any recent high-quality polls for the state, i'm assuming because it's just not of interest since it's traditionally a deep-red state.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:24:17 AM

PresidentStalkeyes Eats moldy bread and flies into windows from United Kingdom of England-land Since: Feb, 2016 Relationship Status: Do you like me? (Yes ⎕ Definitely ⎕ Absolutely!!! ⎕)
Eats moldy bread and flies into windows
#336283: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:23:25 PM

Oh yeah, I forgot about that. Why do Nebraska and Maine have electoral districts, anyway?

Those sell-by-dates won't stop me because I can't read!
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336284: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:29:14 PM

I assume because the people voted that they be proportioned that way. It's not like they have to be winner-take-all.

jjjj2 from Arrakis Since: Jul, 2015
#336285: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:29:49 PM

[up]x4 I've done the same thing lately...

Edited by jjjj2 on Oct 30th 2020 at 9:29:57 AM

You can only write so much in your forum signature. It's not fair that I want to write a piece of writing yet it will cut me off in the mid
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336286: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:33:28 PM

I've also been mapping out scenarios with 538's tool just to have an idea of what the paths of victory for each candidate are, and honestly it's reassuring. Biden has multiple viable paths even in less favorable scenarios, but trump has a pretty narrow one where he has to win a lot of states where he's very unpopular with a margin of error that's quite a bit larger than the one from 2016.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:38:37 AM

ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#336287: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:39:25 PM

Speaking of the Five Thirty Eight scenario maker, I've been fiddling around with it too, mostly to see if there's any logical way for Biden to win without Pennsylvania. Turns out there is— if he can pick up either Arizona or Georgia.

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336288: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:40:00 PM

Or North Carolina or Florida.

Though if he loses PA and wins AZ, I think he still needs one additional electoral vote. It’s a 269-269 tie.

Edited by Galadriel on Oct 30th 2020 at 9:53:51 AM

doctor05 Since: Sep, 2015
#336289: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:40:55 PM

I heard he is leading in Florida.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336290: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:41:49 PM

It really shouldn't be understated that Biden has more leeway here than Trump.

Again, not saying Trump can't win, but these discussions almost always have the implicit assumption that Trump is somehow in the better position here and that's not supported by, well, anything.

ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#336291: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:44:51 PM

Well, for an incumbent to be in such a poor position going into an election is a very unusual thing.

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336292: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:45:15 PM

Florida is quite a close race atm, Biden's lead is like 3-4 points over trump which is within margin of error. There is also the fact that AFAIK Florida is a GOP controlled state atm, which means more chances for the republicans to cheat if the election is close. One of the things that bears mentioning is Biden's favorability rating with seniors of which there are many in Florida, so that could be a factor in his favor.

We should know the results in Florida fairly soon unless the race is like Bush vs Gore level close in which case I wouldn't get my hopes up for biden prevailing there. Having said that, we already know Biden has prepared a strong legal team to challenge any shenanigans in Florida if it comes to that.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:51:51 AM

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336293: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:45:31 PM

[up][up]Everything about Trump's presidency is unusual.

Edited by LSBK on Oct 30th 2020 at 8:45:58 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#336294: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:47:38 PM

If you - non-specific you, just addressing this for all to see - are that concerned about losing Florida or Pennsylvania then the best way to assuage your fears is to start phone banking for the next four days. Just throwing that out there.

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#336295: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:51:07 PM

Heh, if you think you are anxious and worried, just imagine how Donald Trump feels right now. I do, and it cheers me right up.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
doctor05 Since: Sep, 2015
#336296: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:54:58 PM

[up] Wouldn't he feel more Relaxed Considering he has Supreme Court and Senate under his belts?

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336297: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:58:51 PM

The thing is, barring a complete doomer scenario, it's not super likely that this will go up to the supreme court unless the race is going to be decided by a very close race in a particular state. People bring up Bush vs Gore in 2000 but that was dealing with margins of under 1000 votes, which is very, very small. 538 has a supreme court recount possibility as 5%, which while technically possible is one of the least likely outcomes of the election.

Also, while I don't want to dismiss the possibility that the supreme court would steal the election for Trump, it also wouldn't surprise me if the GOP would be happy to ditch him for now and just start preparing for the rehabilitation efforts of their image for the midterms and elections in 2024. Mitch Mc Connell seems resigned to losing since he said that he expects much of what they've accomplished in the last few years will be undone by this election, with the exception of his supreme court picks.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 11:01:42 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336298: Oct 30th 2020 at 7:03:44 PM

I wouldn't count on that, if Trump and the Republicans want it to go to the Supreme Court, it will.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#336299: Oct 30th 2020 at 7:12:58 PM

Oh yeah, I forgot about that. Why do Nebraska and Maine have electoral districts, anyway?

I assume because the people voted that they be proportioned that way. It's not like they have to be winner-take-all.

Maine (since 1972) and Nebraska (since 1992) passed laws to divvy up their electoral votes so that whoever wins each congressional district gets one of their EVs, with the statewide winner getting the two extra from the Senate. Other states have used this or similar methods in the past, mainly in the 19th Century. It's only been Republicans at various state legislatures who've been pushing for this in the past ten years.

Edited by megarockman on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:15:11 AM

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#336300: Oct 30th 2020 at 7:17:21 PM

Specifically, they only push for it in swing states with gerrymandered districts.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.

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