TVTropes Now available in the app store!
Open

Follow TV Tropes

Following

The General US Politics Thread

Go To

Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

If you're new to OTC, it's worth reading the Introduction to On-Topic Conversations and the On-Topic Conversations debate guidelines before posting here.

Rumor-based, fear-mongering and/or inflammatory statements that damage the quality of the thread will be thumped. Off-topic posts will also be thumped. Repeat offenders may be suspended.

If time spent moderating this thread remains a distraction from moderation of the wiki itself, the thread will need to be locked. We want to avoid that, so please follow the forum rules when posting here.


In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.

Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

nrjxll Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Not war
#336251: Oct 30th 2020 at 4:28:12 PM

The closer we get to Election Day, the more I've come to conclude that absolutely nothing can convince me that Trump will lose. I just don't have the capability to accept the idea of any positive polls, analysis, etc. translating into the real world. As such, perverse as it may sound, I don't really think articles like the one linked above are worth worrying over - they may put a specific shape on my expectations, but ultimately responding to them is an emotional action that won't have any bearing on how things actually play out.

I'm not telling people to give up hope, but I do think that trying to make yourself feel certain or even confident about the outcome you want is a lot of trouble for something that may not be possible. So once you've voted, a certain amount of disengagement from the news is not a bad idea. Like Codafett said, what happens, happens. In fact, I'm probably quitting even this thread after this.

(I will note, however, that this is coming from someone who will not be directly harmed by a Trump victory. I fully get that this is not necessarily something that can apply to people in more vulnerable positions, and I'm not trying to dismiss those concerns.)

Edited by nrjxll on Oct 30th 2020 at 6:29:40 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#336252: Oct 30th 2020 at 4:30:51 PM

The closer we get to Election Day, the more I've come to conclude that absolutely nothing can convince me that Trump will lose.

Then with as much respect as possible I feel I have to say that it’s likely not possible for you to contribute positively to the conversation here. You should instead spend you time and bandwidth seeing if you can access free online mental health resources to assist you with your issues.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336253: Oct 30th 2020 at 4:31:32 PM

I mean, yeah, there is no certainty. Anyone telling you differently is lying to you.

But there's a difference between "you can never be 100% sure, until it's over" and "no data matters/the worst outcomes are the most likely ones to happen."

The former is just accepting reality, the later is needlessly cynical and unhealthy. And, to be blunt, I'm kind of tired of people spreading the latter view point around.

If nothing can change how you feel about these things, then I honestly don't understand why you keep coming here asking questions/interacting. It's not good for you, and it's not good for anyone else.

Edited by LSBK on Oct 30th 2020 at 6:33:20 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336254: Oct 30th 2020 at 4:46:50 PM

I think the important thing to emphasize here is that everyone is worried. Like, really worried. I don't even live in the US and have been following this election very closely, because it will have a global impact that will eventually reach where I live too. The world needs a global repudiation of Trump and everything that he stands for.

But as I've said multiple times before, if the election is getting to be too much for you, assuming that you've already voted, then it might be best to unplug for a while and try to find something to occupy yourself with until the morning on Wednesday at least when we'll have a better idea of the state of the election. Nate Silver says that if Biden wins he estimates there's a 60% chance we'll know by about 3am or so, and 30% that it will take longer to determine, whereas any trump win will also take longer to determine.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 8:49:48 AM

doctor05 Since: Sep, 2015
#336255: Oct 30th 2020 at 4:54:44 PM

I am New Zealander living in Korea... and this election will impact BOTH nations heavily. Korea cause of whole N.Korea thing and NZ because we are one of closest allies of USA.

Edited by doctor05 on Oct 30th 2020 at 4:55:26 AM

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#336256: Oct 30th 2020 at 4:58:49 PM

absolutely nothing can convince me that Trump will lose

trying to make yourself feel certain or even confident about the outcome you want is a lot of trouble for something that may not be possible

Aren’t these two statements contradicting?

Either way, I don’t think it’s possible to participate in a productive discussion with that kind of mindset.

They should have sent a poet.
AlleyOop Since: Oct, 2010
#336257: Oct 30th 2020 at 4:59:29 PM

One of the fundamental rules of statistics is that absolutely nothing is truly impossible, including spontaneously vaporizing in your seat as long the method of how it happens doesn't explicitly violate some essential law of physics. Such an event is merely implausible, and its chance is infinitesimally small compared to all the other millions of possibilities where that doesn't happen.

Thus pundits reiterating that it's not impossible for Trump to win from where he is, is more a matter of responsible reporting than believing that he actually has a statistically probable chance of winning.

If you understand this mathematical principle then it will make more sense, but if you are acknowledging that you cannot view a sign painted blue as anything other than red, then you probably have a deeper psychiatric issue that needs addressing, and which is beyond the scope of what this site can do for you.

Edited by AlleyOop on Oct 30th 2020 at 8:01:22 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336258: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:00:01 PM

And you should be worried, for various reasons:

Nearly 90,000 cases in a day: Pandemic skyrockets in third, highest peak yet: Peak in new cases will be followed by new peaks in hospitalizations and deaths.

This being one of them. I think we discussed at one point that the worst case scenario for the elections would be a peak in cases right on election day.

Well, this is that worst case scenario now.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336259: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:04:15 PM

Speaking from a brazilian perspective, Bolsonaro has been a total trump suckup since day 1 and he relished his victory in 2016 as a sign of things to come (which it was since he won the election in 2018). Above all else i hope trump loses because he's an awful leader wreaking misery across the US and the world, but I won't lie that on a purely personal level, I will take pleasure in seeing Bolsonaro get mad at his idol being soundly rejected and instead have to deal with Biden who has said there will be economic consequences if Brazil continues to devastate the rainforests, and will put pressure on him to address climate change in a more serious way.

HugoG Since: Jun, 2018
#336260: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:08:06 PM

Hey guys, I'm just a Mexican guy whose voice doesn't even matter in this, but I wish you all the best.

I know it sounds silly but I really hope you stay healthy and safe during the elections. I really really hope things change so the situation can improve for all of you, especially COVID.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336261: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:21:48 PM

Yeah, stay safe people, and make sure you will be safe for the weeks ahead as well.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
MichaelKatsuro Since: Apr, 2011
#336262: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:22:22 PM

Aren’t these two statements contradicting?

I wouldn't say they are.

nrjxll is trying to convince themselves that Trump is probably, or at least possibly, going to lose, but can't. The words "trying to make yourself feel certain or even confident about the outcome you want is a lot of trouble for something that may not be possible" can be rephrased thusly: "Trying to make myself feel certain or even confident about the outcome I want, a Biden win, is a lot of trouble for a win that may not be possible".

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336263: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:24:47 PM

@Redmess: I do not think this is, yet, the highest of the three COVID peaks in the US. If anything, it is currently lower than the spring and summer peaks. Increases in testing make it difficult to chart the size of a peak (or wave) based solely on reported cases.

In terms of hospitalizations, this is still lower than the other two peaks. Additionally, there is clear geographic variation between the peaks: the spring one was mainly in the northeast; the summer one in the west and south; and this one, so far, is predominantly in the midwest, with smaller rises in the south and northeast. I agree that the fact that this autumn wave is worst in the midwest, particularly Wisconsin, has major implications for the election - and early voting has been less common in the midwest than elsewhere.

In terms of the nationwide positive test rate, it’s around 6% and rising, comparable to around 7% during the summer peak. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

The autumn wave could certainly get as bad as the previous two - or worse - but it’s not there yet.

Edited by Galadriel on Oct 30th 2020 at 8:27:30 AM

Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#336264: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:28:09 PM

One can only pray that this gets it in people's heads that only one candidate will do something about this while the other claims 'he has already solved the problem'... and NOT stay home and wish it would go away.

Or else it really will be a Trump victory.

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336265: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:29:15 PM

[up]We already have the data that suggests this is the case. Biden is the first democrat to poll well with seniors in years.

ScubaWolf from South Carolina Since: Feb, 2020
#336266: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:30:54 PM

I really do believe that this will end with a landslide victory for Biden. Too many people are angry, too many people are tired of this nonsense, too many people have lived in fear for too long. I feel that America will stand up and repudiate his nonsense and hopefully the entire Republican party will be losing multiple seats across the country in the Senate (hopefully including Mc Connell). Keep in mind that I'm a very pessimistic person, so me believing this says something.

Edited by ScubaWolf on Oct 30th 2020 at 8:31:23 AM

"In a move surprising absolutely no one"
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336267: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:33:18 PM

I don't think there's any way Mc Connell will lose, unfortunately. But instead, he'll hopefully have to watch helpless as senate minority leader as the democrats undo his whole agenda and tell him to suck it.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#336268: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:34:24 PM

If someone really has already decided they won’t be swayed by any information no matter what...they should stop posting here. There is no real point.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#336269: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:35:16 PM

[up][up][up][up] Well yeah... just the 'Show Up' part that is most worrisome.

Edited by Memers on Oct 30th 2020 at 5:35:43 AM

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336270: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:37:25 PM

I think the point being made is that all indications, people are doing that.

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336271: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:44:49 PM

Speaking on the earlier subject of black turnout: in Georgia, the amount of black votes is already 1 million, up from 712,000 in 2016. And keep in mind the earlier data point about how black people tend to distrust early in-person and mail-in voting, so there could be significantly more coming election day.

Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#336272: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:46:27 PM

I think I understand how you're feeling nrjxll, it's been such a shit year (and the three proceeding years weren't so great either) that it becomes very difficult to imagine anything good occurring no matter how much good news you hear regarding it. I've always been something of a worrywart.

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336273: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:47:16 PM

In 12 states, turnout is already over 80% of total 2016 turnout. In 19 others, it is between 50% and 80% of 2016 turnout. And that’s before election day.

It certainly does look like people are showing up.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Edited by Galadriel on Oct 30th 2020 at 8:49:14 AM

doctor05 Since: Sep, 2015
#336274: Oct 30th 2020 at 5:56:48 PM

Let's make it happen America! Show Trump that he is no god.

BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#336275: Oct 30th 2020 at 6:00:54 PM

I don't know if Hugo G will see this, but thanks. smile

Do not obey in advance.

Total posts: 417,856
Top