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megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#336201: Oct 30th 2020 at 10:03:48 AM

538: Why Younger Americans Don't Vote More Often (*No, It's Not Apathy)

Seems like younger potential voters (18-34), while more cynical of the political system overall, also have a harder time voting in the first place — they report running into obstacles to voting more often despite the fact that they've had fewer elections in which they could legally vote.

Edited by megarockman on Oct 30th 2020 at 1:04:23 PM

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#336202: Oct 30th 2020 at 10:04:20 AM

nrjxll: Unless you are an extremely skilled worker (think surgeon or physicist) taking up a specialized job, a business owner, or closely related to a Canadian, you’re probably not going to be moving to Canada.

Every four years a whole bunch of people threaten to leave because of the election and what it represents in politics. In 2016 it was Democrats, and Republicans threatened it in 2012 and 2008 before that. Despite all that, there has never been a measurable increase in emigration associated with elections. A literal handful of people actually are able to do it.

I don’t want to say it’s a claim that should be ridiculed, because I don’t believe ridicule is an appropriate response to anything really, but it’s a claim that’s so obviously false it’s almost absurd. The amount of work it takes to emigrate is massive, it’s often a years-long process. People just don’t stay upset about politics for that long.

They should have sent a poet.
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336203: Oct 30th 2020 at 10:09:29 AM

If you work in engineering or the tech sector, you might be able to manage it. In a normal year. At present the border’s closed, and likely to remain so until the US gets COVID under better control.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#336204: Oct 30th 2020 at 10:14:49 AM

Andrew B., 29, said he finds politics very frustrating, because people on opposite sides of the aisle won’t admit that anything their opponents have done is good.

Rather hard when one party is committed to doing nothing except enriching the wealthy and saying screw you for the past thirty years at least.

Because the only thing they really seem to get done on their own initiative is tax cuts.

ShinyCottonCandy Everyone's friend Malamar from Lumiose City (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Everyone's friend Malamar
#336205: Oct 30th 2020 at 10:18:20 AM

Ug. Reminds me of how my dad says that Trump could cure cancer and the democrats still wouldn't give him any credit.

The thing is, Dad, that that's not even remotely close to the realm of possibility, even if he weren't a total idiot. We don't give him credit for anything he's done because he's done literally nothing good and he's shown no interest in trying.

My musician page
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#336206: Oct 30th 2020 at 10:22:26 AM

Like ffs, I will say the Tories did manage to get some good things done even if it was under pressure or in a coalition (changing marriage laws for one). Because they managed the low mark of "actually being involved in doing something positive".

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#336207: Oct 30th 2020 at 10:39:18 AM

[up][up][up][up] The border closure only affects regular travel, if your paperwork is in order and you test negative you can still immigrate.

That said, if you applied today and were in one of the fast tracked categories your minimum wait would be 2-3 years.

Edited by archonspeaks on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:40:36 AM

They should have sent a poet.
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336208: Oct 30th 2020 at 11:08:17 AM

Nate Silver had an interview with Vox where he discusses a lot of things about the election, such as what led to Biden's success, whether a generic republican would have been better against biden compared to trump, goes over the problems with polls in 2016 and how 2020 is different, and other subjects.

In particular he talked about the possibility of a crisis if republicans try to steal the election:

Ezra Klein

When we talk about elections, I think people mentally index to the idea that there are two outcomes: win or lose. And in this election, it seems to me there are three: win, loss, and crisis.

When we talk about, say, the possibility of a 3- or 4-point polling error in Donald Trump’s direction, that would make the election very close in the key swing states. In the world where you have lots of mail-in voting because of Covid-19, a bunch of Republican attempts to prevent or discredit those votes, and a Supreme Court with Amy Coney Barrett possibly having the last word on election rulings, that’s a situation where we could face a real legitimacy crisis over who won. As crazy as Bush v. Gore was, I really worry that if you replay that now, it gets a lot crazier.

Your models explicitly do not try to measure the effect of electoral chicanery, but I’m curious how you think about that possibility.

Nate Silver

I always worry about these conversations because the chaos scenario is so bad that whether it’s 2 percent or 5 percent or 15 percent, you still have to be very worried about it. And it’s certainly somewhere in the low to mid-single digits, if not a quite bit higher — although not the modal outcome by any means.

But I think there are a couple of things to keep in mind. One, people forget just how close Florida was in 2000. It came down to something like 537 votes in a state with 10 million people. That’s not just within the recount margin — it’s exactly on the nose. And it’s still quite ambiguous who ultimately really won Florida, depending on dimpled chads and the butterfly ballot in Palm Beach County and everything else.

Two, the issue most likely to affect the debate is ballots that are returned after Election Day. Those actually aren’t that many ballots, and may not be as Democratic as people assume because Democrats are being more diligent about sending their ballots in early. If you look at mail ballots returned so far, Democrats have around a 30-point edge on partisan ID in terms of who has returned more ballots; if you look at the mail ballots that have not yet been returned but were requested, it’s only a 12-point edge for Democrats.

It’s possible that the attempts at voter suppression can backfire if they make the people you’re trying to suppress more alert. You can imagine Democrats being more diligent about getting their ballots in early, finding different ways to vote, following all the rules — in which case, these things might not help the GOP.

The last thing I think about a little bit is: Is it harder or easier to vote than it has been in the past? You’re always calibrating a model based on past history. There has always been voter suppression that disproportionately affects people of color and people who are more likely to be Democrats. That’s priced into the models.

However, it’s probably easier to vote now in most states than it ever has been. The Brennan Center does a write-up every year on the voting rights that passed in the past year. And for the past couple of years, you’ve actually had more pro-voting laws than voter suppression laws, which is different than the era from 2012 to 2016. So it’s probably easier to vote now than it has been in the past. And that could potentially help Democrats.

clemont107 Mega Togekiss?! from Land of Missed Opportunities (Experienced, Not Yet Jaded) Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
Mega Togekiss?!
#336209: Oct 30th 2020 at 11:22:19 AM

[up]It is re-assuring that despite the voter suppression efforts by the GOP more people are finding it easier to vote. Even with Injustice Barrett on the court, the Supreme Court will not hand Trump a win if Biden wins by a noticeable amount.

"Wow, no Mega Togekiss in Legends Z-A. Or any non-Froslass new Sinnoh Mega Evolutions. Round of applause, everybody." - Dawn
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#336210: Oct 30th 2020 at 11:26:24 AM

Like ffs, I will say the Tories did manage to get some good things done even if it was under pressure or in a coalition (changing marriage laws

Hell even most coalition they’ve managed to keep us reasonable as far as expanding the roel of renewable energy in our electrical grid goes.

I think that may actually be it for positives, but it’s one.

The border closure only affects regular travel, if your paperwork is in order and you test negative you can still immigrate.

I’m also assuming that Canada is still taking asylum requests from eligible people? So people at serious risk to life can still try for help.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336211: Oct 30th 2020 at 11:57:18 AM

Presumably most countries have exceptions for refugees and such.

The Political Gabfest made an interesting point last week about if Trump loses, namely that we could see an escalation of sweetheart deals with Trump allies to siphon money from the government to them, and that a loss will be a signal for him to wring every last drop he can from his presidency. This could also extend to pardons, I imagine.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#336212: Oct 30th 2020 at 11:59:47 AM

[up][up] Theoretically, yes, but it’s very difficult for Americans to get refugee status or political asylum. A few years ago a man applied for refugee status in Canada citing police violence against African Americans in the US as the reason, and his application was denied with prejudice. The number of successful refugees and asylum seekers is probably a few dozen over the last decade.

Edited by archonspeaks on Oct 30th 2020 at 11:59:58 AM

They should have sent a poet.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#336213: Oct 30th 2020 at 12:04:58 PM

As long as the Blue states at least remain relatively safe for Americans, the chance of Canada accepting asylum requests from Americans is next to nothing. Internal displacement/relocation comes first.

Besides, if requests were granted in serious numbers, they'd probably be placed in quarantine camps/facilities. And that's a disaster on so many levels.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#336214: Oct 30th 2020 at 12:25:37 PM

And it’s still quite ambiguous who ultimately really won Florida, depending on dimpled chads and the butterfly ballot in Palm Beach County and everything else.

Because this is my Single-Issue Wonk, for the record, a bunch of newspapers got together after the fact and did a recourt on their own dime after the election was over. tldr, state law at the time was that any ballot marked such that the preference of the voter can be deciphered is a legal vote, and by that standard, Gore won... but only if they'd done an entire state-wide hand recount by that standard, which is not something that any of the various legal cases were arguing for.

And that's not even getting into the Palm Beach County butterfly ballot thing, which had thousands of votes for third-party candidate Pat Buchanan, most of which almost certainly should have gone for Gore and would have been enough to win the state for Gore by themselves. There were also something like 20,000 overvotes in Palm Beach County (where people accidentally voted for two candidates, and thus the ballot could be counted for neither), most of which were likely for people who voted for Buchanan accidentally, realized their mistake, and re-voted for Gore, thus inadvertently spoiling their ballot.

So yeah. Gore 100% unquestionably had more people who cast votes for him. He was robbed by a combination of court decisions throwing out valid legal votes, and shitty ballot design confusing voters into voting incorrectly.

Edited by NativeJovian on Oct 30th 2020 at 3:26:39 PM

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#336215: Oct 30th 2020 at 12:32:42 PM

And this is why I think it’s best to stick with paper ballots with a box you mark. Then count them by hand, with observers watching the counters.

It’s not just about security, it’s about avoiding complications.

The problem is getting either the funding needed to do the count in a single night, or getting the public to accept that results take a couple days.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#336216: Oct 30th 2020 at 12:37:59 PM

Either way, that interview makes some good points. I understand that even the possibility that this might go to the courts, and then we can all basically assume how they'd rule if it's close enough for that is incredibly fucked up, but the way most people keep talking about seems pretty akin to fearmongering.

The way a lot of people are freaking out margins don't matter at all, and Republicans are definitely going to steal Pennsylvania, and thus Trump's win is basically guaranteed. And, like, who is that for?

Edited by LSBK on Oct 30th 2020 at 2:38:12 PM

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
Bur from Flyover Country (Living Relic) Relationship Status: Having tea with Cthulhu
#336218: Oct 30th 2020 at 1:13:12 PM

Zero shock for MO since mail-in ballots required notaries.

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336219: Oct 30th 2020 at 1:19:03 PM

The 538 article on why youth don’t vote is interesting. It’s not apathy, it’s systems that make voting more difficult. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-younger-americans-dont-vote-more-often-no-its-not-apathy/

Youth are more mobile than older adults. They may live on campus for eight months and with their parents the other four. So they may not be registered at the right address. They’re more likely to not be able to get time off work to vote (this reason had especially big disparities between youth and older adults) - probably because they’re more likely than older adults to have low-paying, non-unionized and precarious sales and service jobs. They’re more likely to have missed the voter registration deadline, or not received an absentee ballot in time.

These are problems that progressives can and should solve, instead of yelling at young people for “being lazy” and “not caring”. Allow election-day voter registration (and election-day address changes for people who are already registered). Make election day a federal holiday. Increase the number of polling places so people can vote promptly.

Edited by Galadriel on Oct 30th 2020 at 4:21:06 AM

ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#336220: Oct 30th 2020 at 1:27:24 PM

Is the notion that if the election results aren't decided on November 3rd itself, Trump could use his leverage to block mail-in votes and sway the election in his favor if he doesn't win outright a valid source of concern?

Asking for a friend.

3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#336221: Oct 30th 2020 at 1:29:33 PM

He can try but not even SCOTUS would touch that third rail I think.

So file it as "Not a realistic chance."

Edited by 3of4 on Oct 30th 2020 at 9:29:54 AM

"You can reply to this Message!"
ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#336222: Oct 30th 2020 at 1:40:08 PM

On that note, there is the matter of Pennsylvania. Biden's lead there is a lot more delicate than in the other swing states (5 points as opposed to 8 or 9). If he loses Pennsylvania, Biden will have to take Arizona to compensate.

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#336223: Oct 30th 2020 at 1:41:08 PM

There's been a lot of talk about Texas possibly turning blue during this election, and while that's certainly not confirmed it's far more likely than ever before (specifically it's about as likely as Trump's 2016 victory). Thankfully there is data that suggests how this is happening.

Turnout has massively increased

Understandably one might not get much from that map considering that it doesn't give any general context for Texas.

But I've got you covered, after some light Google searching I've found a map of the Texas urban concentration.

It matches almost exactly with the very high turnout areas.

I don't think we should expect Texas to definitely turn Blue but this should explain how it's suddenly at risk of doing so. I don't know if this will bear out on election day, or beyond, but this is very much terrible news for the Trump campaign grin

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336224: Oct 30th 2020 at 1:45:07 PM

It's worth noting that even if Texas does not turn blue, it's possible that there will be enough turnout for the democrats to gain control of local positions, which will pave the way for future democratic gains there later and strengthen the position of the party in the state, making it more competitive in future elections.

Even if Texas goes blue this year I would personally interpret that as more of a repudiation of trump than anything, but it would still be extremely significant if it meant that texas becomes a legitimate swing state in the short term since it means the GOP would have to spend time and money to defend it, taking resources away from other swing states.

EDIT: Also, upon reading that earlier link about which states will have results by when, it seems wisconsin will likely know the winner by the next day at the latest, so that should gives us some general insight into how biden is doing in the midwest even if it takes a while longer for michigan and pennsylvania to count all their ballots.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 5:48:43 AM

ShinySubstitute Smartass with too few friends from Technical Record 20 Since: Jun, 2020
Smartass with too few friends
#336225: Oct 30th 2020 at 2:01:43 PM

Anyone here from Colorado who ran into Proposition 117 on their ballots?

Was it just me, or was that by far the most confusing question on the ballot to anyone else? It was worded in such a weird way, and even the sites I went to for clarification were kind of wishy-washy as to what it meant and who supported it.

I had at least an idea on most of my votes otherwise, even if I had to search around for clarification. But that one question... Yeesh.


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