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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
By 538's model? >99%. Basically ANY of the more unlikely states have that effect.
Because if Biden wins one, it means others are liable to break for him due to a favourable national environment and correlation between voter demographics. For instance, if he wins Georgia, he's narrowly ahead to take Texas.
Almost certain (with the obvious caveat). Trump's only real plausible path to victory requires him to win all of the high-EV swing states: Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia. If Biden wins even one of them - and carries the states he's currently leading by more than five points - he wins.
Edited by nrjxll on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:23:56 AM
It was Roger Stone and Rush Limbaugh who said that, in response to a potential Clinton victory and the ACA being passed respectively. You’ll notice that neither of them actually ended up moving. People like to say things like that, but they never actually do it.
They should have sent a poet.I find it amusing that Biden's polling average at 538 is currently above Trump's by 8.8.
The coronavirus is the only reason I didn't do serious research into emigration to Canada over the last few months. No matter who wins, actually - I have at no point been able to really believe anything I'm saying about Trump losing on an emotional level, so I know for sure there's no way I can survive another round of this in four years (and there's no chance of the GOP improving during that time). Not that Canada's some utopia, but its conservative party is at least not outright fascist in general, as far as I can tell. So I think people moving because of an election definitely does actually happen.
Now, people who literally make their living peddling grievance politics, on the other hand? That's an entirely different story, yes.
That's equally true anywhere I go, though. Every country's got problems, but there are differences between them, and I just... cannot deal with America's, emotionally speaking, anymore, at least not with this degree of immediacy. I'll admit, it's not a 100 percent certain decision, but the only other option I see is indeed to commit full-time to political activism, which is not something I'm suited for.
I don't want to get too off-topic about this, though (you can take it to PMs if you want). My intent was to just use myself as an example of how it'd be wrong to assume that all "If X wins the election, I'm fleeing the country" statements are hyperbole.
Edited by nrjxll on Oct 30th 2020 at 10:52:56 AM
Statement A: "People who say that they'll move if their candidate loses the election are usually full of shit."
Statement B: "Not so. I intend to move to Canada regardless of who wins or loses the election."
Statement B doesn't actually contradict Statement A. Just saying.
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.@Alley Yeah, look up Derek Sloan and Maxine Bernier. And our two biggest provinces are run by right-wing populists.
Also, immigrating to Canada, or most places, is not easy. It's not something you can do casually.
Edited by Rationalinsanity on Oct 30th 2020 at 1:12:33 PM
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.Statement B: "Not so. I intend to move to Canada regardless of who wins or loses the election."
Statement B doesn't actually contradict Statement A. Just saying.
What I was trying to say was more like "I intend to leave the country even if my candidate wins because of how horrified I am by the other party even having a chance, so it's easy to believe in people leaving the country if their candidate actually does lose."
And yes, I do get that actually emigrating is not easy - undoubtedly that's a huge part of why this isn't common even among people who don't just mean it as hyperbole. Certainly I myself will not be taking any life risks until we're no longer living with a raging pandemic.
All I was trying to say is that I don't think the idea is inherently worthy of ridicule, or on a par with the usual MAGA delusions. (Again, pundits claiming it - or the idea that a Biden presidency is going to be dramatically leftist at all - are different matters).
Edited by nrjxll on Oct 30th 2020 at 11:20:31 AM
Even something like moving out of state isn't a trivial endeavor. You need to upend your whole life, find a new job, give up whatever social life you have where you live, etc. And as far as moving out of the country goes, a lot of the time the people who would have the easiest time doing that are the ones less likely to suffer the most under a trump presidency.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 30th 2020 at 1:21:29 PM
Texas’ voter turnout is now higher than its total turnout in 2016, and it’s still four days before election day.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
There are several other states that are already over 80% of 2016 turnout.
Edited by Galadriel on Oct 30th 2020 at 12:32:44 PM

Last I checked though Georgia is more likely to become the deciding state than Texas. And it's easier to campaign in and more useful in the Senate contest, plus is called earlier than Texas. So I'd pay attention to the southeastern state, first.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman