Nov 2023 Mod notice:
There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.
If you're new to OTC, it's worth reading the Introduction to On-Topic Conversations
and the On-Topic Conversations debate guidelines
before posting here.
Rumor-based, fear-mongering and/or inflammatory statements that damage the quality of the thread will be thumped. Off-topic posts will also be thumped. Repeat offenders may be suspended.
If time spent moderating this thread remains a distraction from moderation of the wiki itself, the thread will need to be locked. We want to avoid that, so please follow the forum rules
when posting here.
In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.
Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Somewhat ironically, Republicans have actually done a very good job at making me more amenable to the idea of a wrathful "Old Testament" God. Because it's nice to think that someone will give these creeps what they deserve.
As someone who is somewhat religious and comes from a religious family, Christian Conservatives give religion a bad name. They only take certain aspects of the Bible and twist them to suit their own terrible ideologies.
I have friends who are Christian and heavily dislike Republicans and how they use religion.
“We’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.” - Lewis Carroll![]()
Yeah, I think the only time reasonably wealthy people were framed as being correct in Jesus's teachings was when they were being extremely generous to people who didn't deserve it from a strictly pragmatic point of view. So for example the parables of the father welcoming his son back after said son squandered his inheritance, and the farm owner paying a full day's wage to people who only actually helped finish things up at the end of the day.
The former probably wouldn't ruffle too many feathers since it's basically about the inherent value of family and forgiving people who outright admit they were wrong, but the latter one is practically communist.
Going back to the root of this convo, Qanon is a perversion of Christianity. Because it's based on 2 assumptions that are just nonsensical: 1. Dems(Or Jewish people, it varies) are a satanic, rapist cult and every Dem somehow knows this deep down. And 2. Trump is God's righteous man sent to save us from these jackals and we all need to help him(If you want to go to heaven is probably the unspoken end of that).
The danger is that it's trying to frame American politics as this extremely black and white Holy War and play on feelings of religious terror. It would make me laugh if I wasn't so deeply disturbed by all of this. Trump is in no way righteous and it's ironic that people clamoring over some Twitter account that is clearly full of shit are calling anyone else a cult.
Either way though, I'm worried for the kids who run into this shit online because they're clearly the target audience. These predators bank on the naivete of curious teenagers and dress it up with memes and humor.
Edited by Codafett on Oct 29th 2020 at 6:44:28 AM
Just Having FunRelated, Trump's support among White Catholics might be slipping.
Which is important because they're disproportionately in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
By contrast, his support among White Evangelical Protestants is as solid as ever, and might have even grown some.
This might be in large part because most religious groups, with the noted exceptions of White Evangelical Protestants, considered the pandemic a major issue and have largely negative views of how Trump has handled it.
Not.
The headline premise is "the polls missed people", when the post-election dissection determined that not weighting educational attainment as its own category rather than rolling it into income groups lead to the majority of the disparity.
Also, one of them works with Trafalgar Group, which has an enormous Republican-leaning bias, which means it got the right outcome on election night only because it overestimated Trump's support in absolute terms. It didn't adjust for 2018 and was stunningly wrong in that case.
Much of the error also came from a lack of state-level polls in the Midwest, which has been heavily addressed this cycle as their likelihood of being vital isn't underestimated either.
Edited by RainehDaze on Oct 29th 2020 at 2:11:08 PM
The "shy trump voter" thing doesn't really pan out statistically. Hillary won the popular vote by about the margin that was expected and she lost because of a few thousand votes in key states by undecideds that broke for trump at the last minute.
Do I think there are trump supporters who are too cowardly to come out and say they support him? Yes. Do I think they're statistically significant? I don't think we have evidence to suggest that at the moment.
I'm finding that people are very hesitant [to share their preference for Trump], because now it's not just being called "deplorable." It's people getting beat up for wearing the wrong hat, people getting harassed for having a sticker on their car. People just do not want to say anything.
We talk to lots of people in our surveys. And I hear things like, "Yeah, I'm for Trump, my neighbors are for Trump, but there's one neighbor who just hates Trump. And when he walks his dog, he kind of wrinkles his nose by those houses, and I don't want him to do it at my house, so I don't put a Trump sign. I like the guy, and I don't want him mad at me." I hear stuff like that all the time. People are playing their cards close to their chest because there's a stigma to being for Trump. What happens when the stigma rolls away from people who hide their vote, and they start admitting where they are? This is what I think is going to happen on Election Day.
In my unexpert opinion, this just sounds like pure hackery. There is no evidence for why Trump voters should be shyer than Biden voters. And the quoted part is an absolute joke.
I cannot on any level convince myself emotionally that Trump will lose, and I still think these guys are full of crap. In addition to what RainehDaze said about Trafalgar, it jumped out me that the other one of them predicted Trump winning the popular vote by 3 points in 2016, which just sounds insane. Even the Trafalgar guy says he expects Trump to win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote. These are both terrible records in every detail beneath the most obvious.
(I remember there being a 538 article on Trafalgar's Republican house effect specifically, but I can't seem to find it.)
I actually do think the "shy Trump voter" gets dismissed too readily by the media, but I've never seen anything to make me think they're much more of a factor than "shy Biden voters". Also the whole 'shy' terminology is kind of misleading - I think what's much more common are fake undecided voters.
Edited by nrjxll on Oct 29th 2020 at 9:28:42 AM
Yes, that’s what I think about “shy Trump voters” as well. The large number of undecideds in 2016, and them breaking overwhelmingly for Trump, suggests that a fair number of them were Trump supporters who were just telling pollsters (and/or themselves) that they were “undecided”.
Which could happen again this year; but on the other hand, Biden’s estimated support is already over 50% in enough of the swing states to make up half the electoral college.
To add to the pile, that they talk about "return" of the Shy Trumpist effect is itself a massive sign of unreliability on their part. It was never actually proven to exist empirically. A phenomenon cannot return if it never existed in the first place.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 29th 2020 at 7:39:05 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangYes, that’s what I think about “shy Trump voters” as well. The large number of undecideds in 2016, and them breaking overwhelmingly for Trump, suggests that a fair number of them were Trump supporters who were just telling pollsters (and/or themselves) that they were “undecided”.
Which could happen again this year; but on the other hand, Biden’s estimated support is already over 50% in enough of the swing states to make up half the electoral college.
Wait a minute, why are you assuming this? Her polls started cratering around the time of the Comey letter, it's more than plausible that they were actually undecided and the letter was just the straw that broke the camel's back. I don't see any evidence that they were secretly Trump supporters.
Edit: Lol,
d by Memers. You win this round!
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 29th 2020 at 7:40:42 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangSchumer calls Trump 'a moron' over coronavirus response
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/523499-schumer-calls-trump-a-moron-on-radio-show
“More people are in hospitals, more people are dying. This third wave in the cold weather with the combination of the flu, and we're sitting on our hands and that's because Donald Trump is such a — pardon my saying, I know you have a very nice show — such a moron,” Schumer told Sirius XM’s “The Joe Madison Show.”
Schumer argued that the federal government needs to tackle many pressing needs, such as hospitals getting overwhelmed with new patients, and nurses and other workers needing protective equipment.
The comment was one of the most explicit shots Schumer has taken at Trump’s intelligence and a reflection of how bitter the political atmosphere has become in Washington.
Schumer has made it increasingly clear that he does not respect Trump’s intelligence.
The Democratic leader compared Trump to “an idiot” after the president’s first debate with former Vice President Joe Biden.
We have strong reason to think that there are far less undecided voters this year, and Biden enjoys a stronger and more consistent favorability rating than Hillary in all relevant states. In addition, If there's some kind of smoking gun for the GOP to pull on Biden on par with the Comey thing, they would have already done it.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 29th 2020 at 11:43:10 AM
I think there is definitely a fairly large group of "shy" voters who are necessarily not covered in any polls. But I don't see any reason why that group would be significantly skewed one way or another politically. I think they are generally the same group who have little interest in politics in general and are unlikely to fill in political questionnaires, or if they do, don't really know what their actual opinions are on anything but the most generic questions.
And having large numbers of undecided voters is a perfectly normal thing for most democracies, especially in this age where party identity isn't nearly as powerful to people any more, at least in Europe. This is part of why votes for parties can swing so wildly from one election to another. And while I generally vote social democratic, I am technically an undecided voter, and usually decide just before the election based on their political platform (usually through taking a questionnaire about voting preference). So the US is somewhat of an outlier in this regard, I think.
Edited by Redmess on Oct 29th 2020 at 3:55:30 PM
Hope shines brightest in the darkest times

Well how about BEES then?
Remember, these idiots drive, fuck, and vote. Not always in that order.