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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336001: Oct 29th 2020 at 9:33:34 AM

So 538 emphasizes that the vote count in Pennsylvania could look very, very different as more votes get counted because of the sheer size of mail-in ballots that will be counted and how many of them are likely to be democrats.

This is part of why I wouldn't spend all tuesday night panicking over the election; even if Trump had like a 10 point in the early hours of the vote count in Pennsylvania, it's not likely that lead would stay and could reverse by a huge margin in Biden's favor soon enough. Same goes for the other important midwestern swing states.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 29th 2020 at 1:37:10 PM

RedSavant Since: Jan, 2001
#336002: Oct 29th 2020 at 9:37:10 AM

I intend to be asleep and/or drunk for most of Election Day. I may also stay off the Internet entirely to avoid the anxiety drip.

It's been fun.
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#336003: Oct 29th 2020 at 9:37:29 AM

Similar caveat holds for Michigan and Wisconsin insofar as they don't start counting mail-ins until Election Day as well.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#336004: Oct 29th 2020 at 9:40:30 AM

And as 538 and others have stressed, if the Republicans really had something damning, they wouldn't have sat on it while millions are voting while Biden has a commanding lead in the polls.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#336005: Oct 29th 2020 at 9:42:49 AM

Yeah, Trump may actually pull ahead on election night itself, but that won't be the end of the ballot counting by any means. We may not know who won the election for days or even weeks, depending on whether this ends up in the courts or not.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
PointMaid Since: Jun, 2014
#336006: Oct 29th 2020 at 9:50:28 AM

Yeah, I'm not going to count my states until they're actually being called by the networks. Presumably the people they get to do those analyses know how much is still to be counted and where, and can weigh all that information better than I could. And they don't like being found to be wrong retroactively.

Of course, there are still the occasional case where something will be officially called but wrong, but that's fairly rare.

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#336007: Oct 29th 2020 at 9:55:10 AM

In an opposite case to Pennsylvania, I think North Carolina lets ballots be counted as they are received - and the number of people who have voted is already 80% of total 2016 turnout. So it could serve as an early indicator.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#336008: Oct 29th 2020 at 9:58:58 AM

If you live in a big city near government buildings, it's probably a good idea to make sure you are prepared to stay inside for a while, as there may be riots and general unrest you may not want to get caught up in while grocery shopping or something.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#336009: Oct 29th 2020 at 10:01:32 AM

In an earlier article 538 mentioned to wary of a "red mirage" and a "blue mirage." Red mirage being states that look like they're going hard for Trump because they count their mail-in ballots latter, and blue mirage being states that look like Biden is winning hard because they count their mail-in early. As the night goes on its going to get more balanced as the rest of the ballots come in.

Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#336010: Oct 29th 2020 at 10:17:22 AM

So do you think that they're actually going to wait till after they have finished counting the mail ballots before they declare the winner after election day?

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#336011: Oct 29th 2020 at 10:19:03 AM

The news networks will be under immense pressure to declare a winner as soon as possible. This is going to conflict with their perceived duty to report accurately. The tension will fall towards how much they value the former over the latter. I expect Fox News to declare early if it looks like Trump has the slightest chance of winning, but everyone else to wait.

In place of calls, expect to see endless reports of the status of mail-in ballot counts, "inside looks" at counting rooms, jumping on every story about fraud, errors, and court battles, and endless pundits pontificating about legal ramifications.

Edited by Fighteer on Oct 29th 2020 at 1:21:56 PM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
MichaelKatsuro Since: Apr, 2011
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#336013: Oct 29th 2020 at 10:27:30 AM

[up] If Biden wins, it should be obvious enough that only Fox News could ever make such a bad call. If Trump wins, however, expect it to be close enough that some news agencies will feel pressure to project from very narrow counts, which might give us some Dewey Defeats Truman moments, but I'd like to think everyone learned from 2016.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Xopher001 Since: Jul, 2012
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336015: Oct 29th 2020 at 10:29:11 AM

This is all why I sincerely would advise people to consider unplugging from the internet and news on tuesday night, trying to get a good night's sleep and checking out what the state of the race is in the morning.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#336016: Oct 29th 2020 at 10:33:13 AM

Oh, I'm tuning out Tuesday night. I'll be off work Wednesday so my feed will be glued to MSNBC all day.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#336017: Oct 29th 2020 at 10:37:57 AM

For some I think that would result in anxious's nights sleep because of not knowing

[up][up]

Edited by Ultimatum on Oct 29th 2020 at 5:41:08 PM

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
TitanJump Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Singularity
#336018: Oct 29th 2020 at 10:41:15 AM

Having experienced the 2016 election live which made me scream so high and in such despair that the neighbors believed someone had been murdered in the area for the entire day afterwards, I'll just say this...

I'm not putting myself through that again and will tune out so I can be fully rested and recovered to deal with the frantic and rabid MAGA cultists that no doubt, will cry for blood, one reason or another, after November 3th has passed.

Edited by TitanJump on Oct 29th 2020 at 6:41:42 PM

PointMaid Since: Jun, 2014
#336019: Oct 29th 2020 at 10:43:42 AM

I remember going home on the bus that night and discussing with a stranger (woman) that the exit polls were looking good.

Sigh.

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#336020: Oct 29th 2020 at 10:45:42 AM

Remember the official result won't be announced on the November the third,that's when voting closes,the result won't likely be known until December

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#336021: Oct 29th 2020 at 10:46:57 AM

I couldn't sleep that night. Just kept tossing in bed thinking about all the bad stuff that was coming.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#336022: Oct 29th 2020 at 11:01:25 AM

Election night 2016 was easily one of the worst nights of my life. The Washington Post had a live updates tracker. Throughout the night, Trump's numbers just kept climbing while Clinton's stayed uncomfortably low. People kept saying "Don't worry they haven't finished counting the blue cities/states yet." So I kept refreshing the page in anticipation of Clinton pulling ahead. It never did, and like Fighteer, I went to bed with a mixture of dread and disgust.

No way am I putting myself through that shit again.

Edited by speedyboris on Oct 29th 2020 at 11:07:04 AM

MichaelKatsuro Since: Apr, 2011
#336023: Oct 29th 2020 at 11:03:17 AM

I'm not only unplugging Tuesday night. I'll stay unplugged for as long as I'm able. I won't go overboard trying to isolate myself, but I will stay at home and read Shakespeare for as long as I can.

jjjj2 from Arrakis Since: Jul, 2015
#336024: Oct 29th 2020 at 11:05:20 AM

I remember when I realized things had gone bad, I just started drinking. I finished the night having drunk four glasses of wine. I come from a family of lightweights, so I was totally shitfaced. Woke up somewhat restless the next morning, but if I remember correctly I didn't have a hangover.

You can only write so much in your forum signature. It's not fair that I want to write a piece of writing yet it will cut me off in the mid
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#336025: Oct 29th 2020 at 11:06:51 AM

For some I think that would result in anxious's nights sleep because of not knowing

I agree and I'm not saying it will be easy, but we won't really known on election night anyway. Trump could win every other swing state but if the three midwestern states who votes will take a while to count go Biden, he will lose. Not to say that we won't have good indications of where the race will be by morning (especially if Biden wins in either Arizona or Florida), but there's no point to stressing yourself out watching the vote counts climb IMO.


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