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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

TitanJump Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Singularity
#335651: Oct 27th 2020 at 8:44:20 AM

And what exactly is stopping Trump from declaring himself as the "winner" on November 3th right away?

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#335652: Oct 27th 2020 at 8:45:11 AM

Because it doesn't actually matter what Trump says, it matters when all the votes are tabulated, certified, and the electors are chosen. Presidential candidates have no actual input in the process aside from for politeness' sake.

Resileafs I actually wanted to be Resileaf Since: Jan, 2019
I actually wanted to be Resileaf
#335653: Oct 27th 2020 at 8:45:12 AM

There's nothing stopping him from declaring himself winner right now.

Doesn't mean shit until the actual votes are tallied and the electors choose the next president.

Edited by Resileafs on Oct 27th 2020 at 11:45:24 AM

ScubaWolf from South Carolina Since: Feb, 2020
#335654: Oct 27th 2020 at 8:45:31 AM

[up] I don't think we can afford that, he and the Republicans would try to have the results thrown out. And we don't need a Hope Spot right now, many of us can't take it emotionally.

"In a move surprising absolutely no one"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#335655: Oct 27th 2020 at 8:45:42 AM

He can declare himself personal butler to the Siamese king, but it doesn't mean he's actually the personal butler to the Siamese king. The decision as to who will be President is made by the electors and nobody else.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
TitanJump Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Singularity
#335656: Oct 27th 2020 at 8:46:33 AM

Fingers crossed for overwhelming blue tsunami then...

One that can't be brought into the SC to be decided.

Edited by TitanJump on Oct 27th 2020 at 4:47:26 PM

Falrinn Since: Dec, 2014
#335657: Oct 27th 2020 at 8:50:46 AM

My understanding is that the exact process varies pretty wildly from state to state. I believe only a handful don't even start counting until after the polls close.

So it's likely that we'll have the results from at least a few key states on election day that will give us a good indication of where things will land in the end.

Karxrida from Eureka, the Forbidden Land Since: May, 2012 Relationship Status: I LOVE THIS DOCTOR!
#335658: Oct 27th 2020 at 8:53:45 AM

Well, they identify as Christian. There's a difference.

Considering how some of them (like my parents) actually read the Bible and all that jazz, they must be hella dedicated to the bit. Or suffering from a severe case of doublethink.

Edited by Karxrida on Oct 27th 2020 at 8:54:09 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#335659: Oct 27th 2020 at 9:03:55 AM

On election night there are a few states such as Florida and Texas that will likely have results out. Those will give some indication as to the race's state overall. If Biden wins Florida by a convincing enough margin that they can't ratfuck it, it becomes very unlikely that Trump will win since that strongly implies a blueward shift in multiple other key states. But even if Trump wins in Florida, Biden only needs like three midwestern states (likely Pensylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan) to more or less cinch it, albeit we won't have results for those until quite late.

Alternatively, just winning Texas and every state clinton won in 2016 would automatically guarantee biden victory, but if he does win texas that very strongly suggests victory in other swing states as well, which would lead to a mega blowout most likely.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 27th 2020 at 1:10:46 PM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#335660: Oct 27th 2020 at 9:04:43 AM

Not that different from the majority of White Southerners throughout much of US history.

I remember a documentary about abolitionists in the years leading up to the Civil War and one of them was Sarah Grimke, a rich southern white woman who grew up on a slave plantation. Despite that upbringing she spoke out against slavery and was protesting the beating of a slave to her mother when her mom yells at her to knock it off with that kind of talk. Grimke insists she's speaking out in the name of Christian love. Her mother's response?

"Well, 'Christian love' a little less!"

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#335661: Oct 27th 2020 at 9:11:03 AM

Also, I've read some speculation that the GOP's attempts of voter suppression could end up backfiring and cutting into their own voters' ability to vote. Since a lot of democrats already voted early, lines in more democratic leaning areas will probably be shorter.

Dave Wasserman, who works for the Cook Political Report and gave trump a good chance to win in 2016, thinks his chances are quite bad this time around and talks about some of those issues.

So early-voting numbers are way up. What does that mean?

I would take everything you hear about the early-voting numbers as an indication that we’re headed for massive turnout in this election but nothing more than that.

Because what we know is that Democrats are amped up about voting early, voting by mail. The Pew Research Center just put out a study of 10,000 voters that found that among voters who were planning on voting early in person, Biden was leading 55 to 40. Biden was leading 69 [to] 27 among voters who plan to cast ballots by mail. But among voters waiting till Election Day, Trump was leading 63 to 31. Most Popular

And Trump supporters are following the president’s direction to vote the old-fashioned way on Election Day. And so it is entirely expected that Democrats have built a lead with these early ballots, and it’s entirely expected that Republicans are gonna turn out in really strong numbers on Election Day. The concern I have for Republicans is that by banking so many early votes, Democrats have relieved a lot of the pressure on Election Day polling place lines in heavily Democratic areas. With this historic turnout, we’re talking potentially 150 to 160 million votes cast, which would shatter records. We could see backlogs and long lines of Republicans in Election Day precincts.

I’ve heard nobody say that before. You’re saying that all this early voting by Democrats relieves the lines on Election Day and it exacerbates the problem for Republicans?

If you’re a casual voter who would vote for Trump and you’re being kind of cajoled by a friend—who’s a real MAGA person on Facebook—to come to the polls, are you gonna really wait for three or four hours in line to vote? You might. But you also might take a pass. Maybe you’re working a couple of jobs. There are an awful lot of white voters in the Midwest who fit that description, potentially.

He also looks at statistical trends and concludes that the strength of republicans in the midwest tends to be underestimated, while the same is true for democrats in the southwest. so he says winning arizona instead of a rust belt state or making more headway in texas compared to ohio is not an implausible outcome.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 27th 2020 at 1:16:37 PM

ShadowWingLG Since: Dec, 2013
#335662: Oct 27th 2020 at 9:22:37 AM

Re- Counting ballots.

Depends on the state but in KS, the early votes that have been already received are the ones that are counted first. They basically have the ballots removed from the envelopes stacked and ready to go in locked boxes till election night, once the polls close the election offices start feeding the ballots into the counter while the individual polling station heads wrap up and then they bring in the USB drives and paper back ups to the central election offices.

So within a few hours of polls closing they should have a good idea whose going to take the state.

I can't see other election offices NOT following similar processes since many of the Absentee ballots are basically scantron sheets easy to prep and have on hand to feed into the machines on election night.

RainingMetal (Handed A Sword) Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#335663: Oct 27th 2020 at 9:42:46 AM

Semi-serious question: Who'd rather take their chances with the zombies?

If Dead Rising taught me anything, it's that psychos can be a far greater danger than the zombies.

ASAB: All Sponsors Are Bad.
TyeDyeWildebeest Unreasonably Quirky from Big Rock Candy Mountain Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: How does it feel to treat me like you do?
Unreasonably Quirky
#335664: Oct 27th 2020 at 9:55:19 AM

[up] I think I've been spending too much time on Reddit, because when I saw your comment I reflexively tried to upvote it.

No beer?! But if there's no beer, then there's no beef or beans!
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#335665: Oct 27th 2020 at 10:19:18 AM

I don't think we can afford that, he and the Republicans would try to have the results thrown out. And we don't need a Hope Spot right now, many of us can't take it emotionally.

Denying reality because it causes hope sounds like a profoundly unhealthy and irrational attitude to take.

Trump will try to dispute the results, that isn't guaranteed to succeed in the best times (for him). These are not that, Biden is well on his way to a solid victory if not a landslide.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#335666: Oct 27th 2020 at 10:25:54 AM

I'm glad we don't have an upvote system, it is rarely helpful outside of tech support.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#335667: Oct 27th 2020 at 10:52:21 AM

Santas scrooged by Trump admin after bizarre vaccine deal goes south: Trump health spokesperson planned to vaccinate Santas in $250 million campaign.

The Department of Health and Human Services has abandoned a deal to vaccinate Santa Claus performers as part of a $250-million taxpayer-funded public relations blitz, The Wall Street Journal reports.

According to the nixed Santa plan, performers would have received special early access to a future vaccine against the pandemic coronavirus. In exchange, the Santa Clauses, Mrs. Clauses, and accompanying elves would have promoted the vaccine to the public and participated in regional holiday events organized by the Trump administration.

Will the ridiculous scandals never stop? (Hopefully, yes).

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
TitanJump Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Singularity
#335668: Oct 27th 2020 at 10:57:51 AM

[up] (Most likely? No.)

It can always get worse/dumber whenever Trump and the GOP gets involved in anything...

Unfortunately, at the expense of everyone else.

Edited by TitanJump on Oct 27th 2020 at 6:58:16 PM

ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#335669: Oct 27th 2020 at 11:38:02 AM

Few bits of interesting news.

And as an aside, I had yet another Trump ad on Youtube today - but had to laugh my ass off because he starts it by saying "I really don't want to talk about an opponent in a negative way" - best joke I've heard him ever tell!

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#335670: Oct 27th 2020 at 12:15:45 PM

Related to the above discussion, yesterday on Twitter Nate Silver said that the way things are going it seems like Trump could win only if there's a massive polling error (even bigger than 2016) or if the election is just stolen somehow.

Now, 538's been pretty candid about how their model can't really factor basically trying to steal the election in, but there were a lot of comments about how him saying that was possible was unethical and the like. And I find myself asking, is it?

I don't see how, but I'm not an expert in journalistic ethical standards and practices. But, from what I have noticed, Silver and his power are pretty remarkable of stating bare facts while maintaining a "neutral" point of view. I think about that quite often when reading their articles and they have things like "Republicans argue... (the data does not support this at all) and then just keep going." I'm sure they have their own view-points on these things, (which seem to come out more during their podcasts, but that's to be expected) but they usually don't let them be seen.

So, anyway, is there any actual merit to the claim, or is it just Trump voters/Republicans calling something unethical for pointing out something they don't want to hear?

Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#335671: Oct 27th 2020 at 12:38:42 PM

Sorry just reinstating it cuz it is somewhat unclear. You are asking if it is unethical from Nate Silver to mention that one of the most likely ways for Trump to win is by abject theft?

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#335672: Oct 27th 2020 at 12:42:27 PM

Yep. On its face that sounds ridiculous to me given the actual situation, but I'm just trying to be "fair" and see if there is any actual argument that could be made to that effect.

nrjxll Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Not war
#335673: Oct 27th 2020 at 1:05:56 PM

How is it not ethical? I'm sick of the media worrying about a "contested election" while dancing around the fact that it's one party specifically - who already regard a free press as the enemy - trying to steal it.

PresidentStalkeyes Eats moldy bread and flies into windows from United Kingdom of England-land Since: Feb, 2016 Relationship Status: Do you like me? (Yes ⎕ Definitely ⎕ Absolutely!!! ⎕)
Eats moldy bread and flies into windows
#335674: Oct 27th 2020 at 1:10:35 PM

I just had a thought; how come they don't have an election week, or at least an election couple-of-days, instead of limiting all the in-person voting to a single day? I don't think I've seen anyone suggest it, but I can't imagine why not.

Edited by PresidentStalkeyes on Oct 27th 2020 at 8:10:50 AM

Those sell-by-dates won't stop me because I can't read!
3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#335675: Oct 27th 2020 at 1:12:54 PM

Constitution, thats why.

"You can reply to this Message!"

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