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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
I don't think we can afford that, he and the Republicans would try to have the results thrown out. And we don't need a Hope Spot right now, many of us can't take it emotionally.
He can declare himself personal butler to the Siamese king, but it doesn't mean he's actually the personal butler to the Siamese king. The decision as to who will be President is made by the electors and nobody else.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"My understanding is that the exact process varies pretty wildly from state to state. I believe only a handful don't even start counting until after the polls close.
So it's likely that we'll have the results from at least a few key states on election day that will give us a good indication of where things will land in the end.
On election night there are a few states such as Florida and Texas that will likely have results out. Those will give some indication as to the race's state overall. If Biden wins Florida by a convincing enough margin that they can't ratfuck it, it becomes very unlikely that Trump will win since that strongly implies a blueward shift in multiple other key states. But even if Trump wins in Florida, Biden only needs like three midwestern states (likely Pensylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan) to more or less cinch it, albeit we won't have results for those until quite late.
Alternatively, just winning Texas and every state clinton won in 2016 would automatically guarantee biden victory, but if he does win texas that very strongly suggests victory in other swing states as well, which would lead to a mega blowout most likely.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 27th 2020 at 1:10:46 PM
Not that different from the majority of White Southerners throughout much of US history.
I remember a documentary about abolitionists in the years leading up to the Civil War and one of them was Sarah Grimke, a rich southern white woman who grew up on a slave plantation. Despite that upbringing she spoke out against slavery and was protesting the beating of a slave to her mother when her mom yells at her to knock it off with that kind of talk. Grimke insists she's speaking out in the name of Christian love. Her mother's response?
"Well, 'Christian love' a little less!"
Also, I've read some speculation that the GOP's attempts of voter suppression could end up backfiring and cutting into their own voters' ability to vote. Since a lot of democrats already voted early, lines in more democratic leaning areas will probably be shorter.
I would take everything you hear about the early-voting numbers as an indication that we’re headed for massive turnout in this election but nothing more than that.
Because what we know is that Democrats are amped up about voting early, voting by mail. The Pew Research Center just put out a study of 10,000 voters that found that among voters who were planning on voting early in person, Biden was leading 55 to 40. Biden was leading 69 [to] 27 among voters who plan to cast ballots by mail. But among voters waiting till Election Day, Trump was leading 63 to 31. Most Popular
And Trump supporters are following the president’s direction to vote the old-fashioned way on Election Day. And so it is entirely expected that Democrats have built a lead with these early ballots, and it’s entirely expected that Republicans are gonna turn out in really strong numbers on Election Day. The concern I have for Republicans is that by banking so many early votes, Democrats have relieved a lot of the pressure on Election Day polling place lines in heavily Democratic areas. With this historic turnout, we’re talking potentially 150 to 160 million votes cast, which would shatter records. We could see backlogs and long lines of Republicans in Election Day precincts.
I’ve heard nobody say that before. You’re saying that all this early voting by Democrats relieves the lines on Election Day and it exacerbates the problem for Republicans?
If you’re a casual voter who would vote for Trump and you’re being kind of cajoled by a friend—who’s a real MAGA person on Facebook—to come to the polls, are you gonna really wait for three or four hours in line to vote? You might. But you also might take a pass. Maybe you’re working a couple of jobs. There are an awful lot of white voters in the Midwest who fit that description, potentially.
He also looks at statistical trends and concludes that the strength of republicans in the midwest tends to be underestimated, while the same is true for democrats in the southwest. so he says winning arizona instead of a rust belt state or making more headway in texas compared to ohio is not an implausible outcome.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 27th 2020 at 1:16:37 PM
Re- Counting ballots.
Depends on the state but in KS, the early votes that have been already received are the ones that are counted first. They basically have the ballots removed from the envelopes stacked and ready to go in locked boxes till election night, once the polls close the election offices start feeding the ballots into the counter while the individual polling station heads wrap up and then they bring in the USB drives and paper back ups to the central election offices.
So within a few hours of polls closing they should have a good idea whose going to take the state.
I can't see other election offices NOT following similar processes since many of the Absentee ballots are basically scantron sheets easy to prep and have on hand to feed into the machines on election night.
If Dead Rising taught me anything, it's that psychos can be a far greater danger than the zombies.
ASAB: All Sponsors Are Bad.I don't think we can afford that, he and the Republicans would try to have the results thrown out. And we don't need a Hope Spot right now, many of us can't take it emotionally.
Denying reality because it causes hope sounds like a profoundly unhealthy and irrational attitude to take.
Trump will try to dispute the results, that isn't guaranteed to succeed in the best times (for him). These are not that, Biden is well on his way to a solid victory if not a landslide.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangAccording to the nixed Santa plan, performers would have received special early access to a future vaccine against the pandemic coronavirus. In exchange, the Santa Clauses, Mrs. Clauses, and accompanying elves would have promoted the vaccine to the public and participated in regional holiday events organized by the Trump administration.
Will the ridiculous scandals never stop? (Hopefully, yes).
Hope shines brightest in the darkest timesFew bits of interesting news.
- 1 - The DOJ can not defend Trump in E. Jean Carrol's defamation suit
, as his comments were not within the scope of his official position, according to the presiding Judge.
- 2 - Twenty former (Republican) US Attorneys formally endorsed Joe Biden
, saying that "We believe that President Trump’s leadership is a threat to the rule of law in our country" in an open letter to Reuters.
And as an aside, I had yet another Trump ad on Youtube today - but had to laugh my ass off because he starts it by saying "I really don't want to talk about an opponent in a negative way" - best joke I've heard him ever tell!
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"Related to the above discussion, yesterday on Twitter Nate Silver said that the way things are going it seems like Trump could win only if there's a massive polling error (even bigger than 2016) or if the election is just stolen somehow.
Now, 538's been pretty candid about how their model can't really factor basically trying to steal the election in, but there were a lot of comments about how him saying that was possible was unethical and the like. And I find myself asking, is it?
I don't see how, but I'm not an expert in journalistic ethical standards and practices. But, from what I have noticed, Silver and his power are pretty remarkable of stating bare facts while maintaining a "neutral" point of view. I think about that quite often when reading their articles and they have things like "Republicans argue... (the data does not support this at all) and then just keep going." I'm sure they have their own view-points on these things, (which seem to come out more during their podcasts, but that's to be expected) but they usually don't let them be seen.
So, anyway, is there any actual merit to the claim, or is it just Trump voters/Republicans calling something unethical for pointing out something they don't want to hear?
I just had a thought; how come they don't have an election week, or at least an election couple-of-days, instead of limiting all the in-person voting to a single day? I don't think I've seen anyone suggest it, but I can't imagine why not.
Edited by PresidentStalkeyes on Oct 27th 2020 at 8:10:50 AM
Those sell-by-dates won't stop me because I can't read!

And what exactly is stopping Trump from declaring himself as the "winner" on November 3th right away?