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Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

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In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.

Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Resileafs I actually wanted to be Resileaf Since: Jan, 2019
I actually wanted to be Resileaf
#335276: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:01:35 PM

I believe the odds of Texas flipping were 35ish% or something? That's well in the territory of 'unlikely but possible'.

Falrinn Since: Dec, 2014
#335277: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:02:04 PM

I would say the mere fact we are even discussing the possibility of Texas going blue this time around is a really bad sign for Trump given that the state hasn't gone blue in a Presidential election since 1976.

Now of course Texas isn't actually that red of a state. The growing urban centers and Latino populations were almost certainly going to make it a swing state within the next few election cycles anyways, but it's still nowhere close to being a potential tipping point state.

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#335278: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:02:56 PM

538 has it at 38% now and most new polls I see have Biden at a slight lead, around 1 to 3%, which is margin of error stuff and seems to imply at worst he and Trump are statistically tied or Biden is only very slightly behind Trump.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#335279: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:03:53 PM

From what I understand, the growing cities in Texas mean the state leans increasingly Democratic. It seems to be a demographic shift more than anything else.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#335280: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:05:08 PM

There's apparently a lot of young professionals moving into Texas that lean democratic, or so I heard.

TheRoguePenguin Since: Jul, 2009
#335281: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:11:53 PM

It's a good sign down-ballet even if Texas doesn't turn, because the Democrats can potentially screw the Republicans on redistricting and lock them out of the House for years to come.

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#335282: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:14:31 PM

Not sure if "brave" is the right word. They're almost all millionaires. They'll personally be fine.

Meh, sacrificing your career for the greater whole is commendable regardless if you have money or not. Probably not equally commendable but I see no purpose in comparing their situation to hypotheticals.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#335283: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:15:29 PM

Not to mention that if the trend continues and democrats come within closer margins of victory, it means that the GOP has to spend more time and money there (which given the 38 electoral votes of Texas, they can't afford to ignore it) and that means they have less money to spend on other swing states like florida.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 25th 2020 at 9:19:17 AM

miraculous Goku Black (Apprentice)
Goku Black
#335284: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:17:38 PM

White House chief of staff Mark Meadows says ‘we're not going to control the pandemic’ as coronavirus cases hit record high

White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said on Sunday that the U.S. will not get control of the coronavirus pandemic as the country reports a record high in new daily Covid-19 cases.

“We’re not going to control the pandemic,” Meadows said during an interview on CNN. “We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigations.

Meadow’s comments point to the Trump administration’s focus on a potential vaccine or therapeutic to manage Covid-19, rather than implementing national measures to help mitigate the spread of infections.

More than 224,000 people have died since the start of the pandemic and health officials urge that protocols like mask wearing could save nearly 130,000 lives.

Meadows also defended President Donald Trump’s large campaign rallies during the pandemic, where attendees are not required to wear masks to reduce the spread of the virus: “We live in a free society,” he commented.

What a tool. We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas

"That's right mortal. By channeling my divine rage into power, I have forged a new instrument in which to destroy you."
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#335285: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:18:05 PM

Yeah, free to kill other people, more like.

Also speaking of texas, Harris is planning to show up there soon.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 25th 2020 at 9:26:43 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#335286: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:20:45 PM

Biden's already responded to that too:

"This wasn't a slip by Meadows, it was a candid acknowledgment of what President Trump's strategy has clearly been from the beginning of this crisis: to wave the white flag of defeat and hope that by ignoring it, the virus would simply go away. It hasn't, and it won't."

tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#335287: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:23:13 PM

A NYPD officer has been suspended after he was caught on camera using his patrol vehicle's speaker to say "Trump 2020."

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#335288: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:23:58 PM

Does 80% of 2016 turnout mean 80% of the people who voted in Texas or the country as a whole?

DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#335289: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:24:48 PM

[up] 80% of Texas 2016 totals. The total for the whole country I think is between 50-60%.

Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#335290: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:27:21 PM

[up] So how many people participated in early voting in 2016 compared to now?

Imca (Veteran)
#335291: Oct 25th 2020 at 5:28:58 PM

30% about.

So half.

Important to note though is that 2016 had the lowest early voting count on record, so its only usefull as a comparision for itself, not to elections as a whole.

Edited by Imca on Oct 25th 2020 at 5:29:49 AM

Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#335292: Oct 25th 2020 at 6:06:16 PM

[up] Still, it's a pretty good sign.

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#335293: Oct 25th 2020 at 6:41:38 PM

Per 538 we're in unknown territory when it comes to early voting. So who even knows what it means, it could mean nothing (if Republican votes increase enough on election day to contest it) or it could be a sign for a landslide.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 25th 2020 at 6:41:50 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#335294: Oct 25th 2020 at 7:07:06 PM

[up] Has early voting ever been this high before?

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#335295: Oct 25th 2020 at 7:13:28 PM

It's not just Texas. The country as a whole has been shifting left for years. It's a combination of younger people trending that way and a rising proportion of people of color. That is one reason why Republican strategists are so adamant about restricting immigration.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#335296: Oct 25th 2020 at 7:18:28 PM

Well, a surge of Republican votes on election day is inevitable. Half of all Trump voters plan to vote in person on November 3th, compared to 20% of Biden voters.

Trump supporters are more than twice as likely as Biden supporters to say they plan to vote in person on Election Day (50% vs. 20%). By contrast, 51% of Biden supporters say they plan to vote by mail or absentee (or have already voted this way). A quarter of Trump supporters (25%) say they plan to vote by mail or absentee.

Edited by LSBK on Oct 25th 2020 at 9:20:13 AM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#335297: Oct 25th 2020 at 7:32:07 PM

Which of course does mean that they're also likely to possibly have problems with overly long lines, not wanting to wait, potential inclement weather, and not having everything correctly prepared.

Though it's bizarre to say "huge surge" when at most there's been some party affiliation reports for who's voted in a few states. We can make assumptions and guesses, but since we don't actually know anything for sure it's a comparison to... nothing?

Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#335298: Oct 25th 2020 at 7:40:22 PM

Those numbers are really worrying.

[up] Those lines and yada are pretty solidly counterbalanced by rejected mail in ballots.

Edited by Memers on Oct 25th 2020 at 7:41:22 AM

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#335299: Oct 25th 2020 at 7:44:53 PM

Do you have anything actually in support of that? I get you're worried Memers, but popping in just to say "things are screwed" over and over again really isn't helpful.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#335300: Oct 25th 2020 at 7:45:34 PM

Not all early voting is mail-in ballots, and a lot of states have ballot curing procedures specifically to fix this. Nothing can fix failing to show up and vote.


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