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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#334901: Oct 22nd 2020 at 10:03:29 PM

Honestly, the fact that Biden has a similar chance to win Texas as Trump had to win the 2016 election is already a troubling sign for the GOP. I don't think anyone should be expecting Biden to win it, but as part of a broader trend it paints an ugly picture for Trump's chances.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#334902: Oct 22nd 2020 at 10:13:25 PM

Texas should not even be competitive. It’s TEXAS. It is a place where “regulation” is a dirty word and has a Humanoid Abomination for a Senator.

Disgusted, but not surprised
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#334903: Oct 22nd 2020 at 10:42:28 PM

By 538's current projections, Texas about three times as likely to vote Biden as Trump is to win the whole thing (35% to 12%).

EDIT: had outdated data re TX odds

Edited by megarockman on Oct 22nd 2020 at 1:47:23 PM

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
Shaoken (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Dating Catwoman
#334904: Oct 22nd 2020 at 11:20:22 PM

Jumping on the "Biden doesn't need Texas to win" and "Trump winning Texas due to voting suprression doesn't mean that Republicans will pull off a win everywhere" bandwagons. Voter suppression is ultimately a state-based approach, so just because it works in Texas (again, a state that has historically voted Republican to the point that it being competitive at all is shocking) doesn't automatically mean it's a sign that America is doomed and Trump reigns supreme forever. So please cut with the doomsaying.

Forenperser Foreign Troper from Germany Since: Mar, 2012
Foreign Troper
#334905: Oct 22nd 2020 at 11:20:57 PM

Yeah, the chance of Texas turning blue is pretty much below 0. No merit discussing this.

Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian
nrjxll Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Not war
#334906: Oct 22nd 2020 at 11:21:16 PM

By 538's current projections, Texas about three times as likely to vote Biden as Trump is to win the whole thing (35% to 12%).

Perhaps more significantly, it's also almost the same as the odds (34 in 100) of Biden winning the popular vote by a landslide, here meaning double-digits. (And that's something I'm inclined to think is almost impossible - I can't imagine Trump getting less than at least 45 percent of the popular vote.)

So yeah - I've just finished making plans to vote tomorrow, but realistically Texas isn't exactly a big deal for Democrats.

Edited by nrjxll on Oct 22nd 2020 at 1:21:38 PM

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#334907: Oct 22nd 2020 at 11:25:05 PM

[up][up]No it isn't, it just isn't super likely.

Shaoken (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Dating Catwoman
#334908: Oct 22nd 2020 at 11:28:42 PM

Biden has the same odds of winning Texas as Trump did winning period in 2016, so it's not out of the question, but it's very much a "if the stars are aligned and the stones fall in the right sequence" scenario. That Biden even had a chance is a good sign for Democrats, but more in the long term of pushing Texas purple.

Clarste One Winged Egret Since: Jun, 2009 Relationship Status: Non-Canon
One Winged Egret
#334909: Oct 22nd 2020 at 11:40:16 PM

35% is about a third, it's not "when the stars align." I wouldn't count on it happening but I wouldn't be surprised either.

Anyway, Texas has a lot of blue hotspots in the cities and California has lots of red everywhere that isn't on the coast. Both of them are just really big states, they're not monoliths.

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#334910: Oct 23rd 2020 at 2:22:31 AM

35% was higher than Trump's chances in the last election.

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#334911: Oct 23rd 2020 at 4:07:43 AM

Good afternoon

So,how did the debate go?

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Wispy Since: Feb, 2017
#334912: Oct 23rd 2020 at 4:09:30 AM

By the sounds of it as expected

Alycus Since: Apr, 2018
#334913: Oct 23rd 2020 at 4:11:34 AM

More controlled than the previous one, still plenty of lies from Trump, Biden was rated higher in the end. That said, surprising that the Supreme Court didn't get mentioned.

Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#334914: Oct 23rd 2020 at 4:30:56 AM

It's also worth mentioning that 538 has observed that the Biden campaign hasn't put very much money into Texas, so their strategy has never included the possibility that Texas would ever be competitive. That's probably why Biden didn't mind being honest about the oil question: their team has never regarded Texas as winnable.

Oh, and for that didn't quite catch the comment or didn't see the debate, the Hitler comment was this:

Trump defended his relationship with Kim Jong-Un by saying "We're not in a war. We have a good relationship. You know, people don't listen. Having a good relationship with leaders of other countries is a good thing. "

Biden retorted: "That's like saying we had a good relationship with Hitler before he in fact invaded Europe, the rest of Europe. C'mon!"

Edited by Wyldchyld on Oct 23rd 2020 at 12:48:36 PM

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
Wispy Since: Feb, 2017
#334915: Oct 23rd 2020 at 4:53:33 AM

[up]Biden is casting some shade with that comment.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#334916: Oct 23rd 2020 at 5:33:28 AM

Also just to note, the US is still kinda at war with North Korea, while no formal declaration of war has ever been issued (as neither the North or South Korean governments see the other as a separate country) the conflict is not over, no peace treaty has ever been signed, only the armistice agreement.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#334917: Oct 23rd 2020 at 5:45:11 AM

The Supreme Court was mentioned briefly in the opening question, but the discussion moved on immediately to health care.

[up] Yes, it is a bit of a Hundred Years War situation. While there is no current war being waged, the underlying conflict has not been settled.

Also, Texas was a reliable blue state before about 1976, so it was hardly "always" a red state. And Republican votes have been steady declining there this century, so it is certainly not that impossible for it to flip. I feel the Dems could have a shot at it if they tried and put some money in it.

And yeah, 36 percent is pretty good odds, that's 1 out of 3. It's nothing to scoff at, and Trump won on those same odds. People are making the exact same mistake with Texas here that they made with Trump in 2016.

Edited by Redmess on Oct 23rd 2020 at 2:52:16 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#334918: Oct 23rd 2020 at 5:54:14 AM

It is not impossible but the odds are low enough that it is better for a campaign to devote resources elsewhere.

36% is still pretty bad.

Edited by M84 on Oct 23rd 2020 at 8:54:50 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
nrjxll Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Not war
#334919: Oct 23rd 2020 at 6:08:59 AM

[up][up]Texas was only a "blue" state pre-1976 because the parties were different.

I do think it's trending more Democratic in the modern sense, mind you, though it's nowhere near to the level of an actual swing state. But going back to the era of the Southern shift is a specious comparison.

Edited by nrjxll on Oct 23rd 2020 at 8:09:28 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#334920: Oct 23rd 2020 at 6:28:50 AM

I thought that switch was a half century earlier than that?

Also, I noticed Biden's new catch phrase is "Come on, man!".

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Mullon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: And here's to you, Mrs. Robinson
#334921: Oct 23rd 2020 at 7:07:02 AM

Is there a word or a phrase for when you feel like the people running the government of the country you live in don't represent your ideals or community at all, not even in a superficial way? Because that's what these debates have made me feel like.

Never trust anyone who uses "degenerate" as an insult.
Kayeka (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#334923: Oct 23rd 2020 at 7:12:30 AM

Also, I noticed Biden's new catch phrase is "Come on, man!".
Not new. He's been using it since at least 2012:

Edited by speedyboris on Oct 23rd 2020 at 7:13:01 AM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#334924: Oct 23rd 2020 at 7:22:23 AM

I have done it, I have cast a ballot thus pledging my soul to He Who Lurks In the Darkness, Devourer of God and Unborn Babies, Apostle of Malarkey, Joe Biden.

I look forward to serving him in the deathless place where I shall surely receive my eternal reward of apotheosis.

(Edit: Who is also a known devourer of windows)

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 23rd 2020 at 7:38:03 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Steven (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
#334925: Oct 23rd 2020 at 7:33:49 AM

Don't forget he'll take your windows too

Remember, these idiots drive, fuck, and vote. Not always in that order.

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