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tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#334877: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:06:01 PM

I'm curious if there's going to be a general consensus on who won this debate as opposed to the first won.

I think the early consensus is along the lines of: this is Trump's best debate performance (by his standards), but that doesn't change the fact that Biden won it.

It looks like only the Trump base things he won it. Everyone else thinks he didn't.

Even Fox News isn't claiming Trump won this debate... they're saying it's Trump's best performance (which is true) so are arguing that it's a draw. It's not good for Trump, when even Fox isn't willing to say he won. (CNN Tweet about Fox News' Brit Hume's comment)

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#334878: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:11:57 PM

[up][up] Sanders, like Warren, is in a state with a Republican governor who would replace him.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#334879: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:17:21 PM

I agree early reopening will do more economic damage, the real question is when the right time is to reopen. Trump says basically now, while Biden is not really clear on that.

As for what impact the debate will have, I think it will matter very little overall, but Biden's comment on shutting down the oil industry will probably hurt him a little in southern states.

As for talking over the moderator, I don't think that case is particularly sexist, he clearly does it with anyone regardless of their gender. It's also hardly unheard of for politicians to do this, and not just with debate moderators either.

Edited by Redmess on Oct 22nd 2020 at 6:23:03 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
singularityshot Since: Dec, 2012
#334880: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:24:44 PM

I think Trump will get the most out of this debate, but that's because I am skeptical of people who are at this point in the race undecided. I feel that they are Trump supporters looking for an excuse to vote for him again and there is enough in that debate to possibly motivate them to the polls.

That being said, if the polling is correct Trump needs more than just undecideds, he needs to get people from the Biden camp as well. And I think if you had any doubts on Biden, they got answered tonight as well so I don't think Trump will have succeeded in pulling support away from Biden.

Biden probably did lose Texas tonight but a scenario where he wins Texas is already a blowout so no point crying over that one. (Hager might be having to do some damage control however)

It was also telling that there wasn't a question on "accepting the results of the election / peaceful transfer of power." Was that a time thing I wonder, or is it that the moderator knew what the answer would be and thought that having more sound and fury over the issue would be more damaging to the question of election integrity than not asking the question.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#334881: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:27:16 PM

I noticed that too, as well as there not being an exhortation to vote this time around.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#334882: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:30:27 PM

Is there a specific reason some of you are saying that this debate specifically cost Biden any chance of Texas? (Even if you're acknowledging that doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things.)

I watched the whole debate, but I was admittedly doing other things at the time.

Edited by LSBK on Oct 22nd 2020 at 11:31:08 AM

Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#334883: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:34:19 PM

The comments about conversion from oil to natural energy were basically the obvious trap that ‘Biden is comin for your oil, Texas’.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#334884: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:37:50 PM

Because people will masochistically insist that the oil must be maintained FOREVAH and not consider that an aided transition to other industries would be great.

Then again, I'm not sure how many people in the oil industry were likely to vote for Biden anyway.

Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#334885: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:47:29 PM

Trump was very pleased with himself because he thought he had trapped Biden with the oil question. I think Biden answered it honestly because it's not an effective trap. The oil transitioning has been going on for decades already, and the oil people who will hate Biden's comments weren't voting for him anyway and already assumed that about him. Texas was always a long shot for Biden that may be tighter than Republicans are comfortable with but was unlikely to go Democrat. So, Biden doesn't lose anything from the honesty here.

Overall, I don't think tonight's debate is going to create any big changes or waves.

From what I can see, the pundits are commenting that the oil comment probably isn't going to harm Biden the way Trump's team clearly would like it to.

Edited by Wyldchyld on Oct 22nd 2020 at 5:51:28 PM

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
nrjxll Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Not war
#334886: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:48:58 PM

This close to the end of this stable a race, I seriously doubt this debate changed any minds (though TBF I thought this about the first one as well). As a Texan, I don't expect Biden to win here, but if that happens it's not gonna be a result of one poorly-chosen response about oil. Heck, it's not like the oil industry is the only relevant force in state politics to begin with.

Honestly, the only thing I'm wondering is what the hell is the deal with this "they're coming for your large windows!" thing Trump tried to push again. Of all the nonsense he spews, this is the one bit that I don't understand on ANY level and would really like explained to me.

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#334887: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:49:34 PM

Yeah, Texas was always a longshot anyway. To give a broad frame of reference, 538 gives Biden a 35% chance of winning which is significant, but clearly not in his favor.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#334888: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:50:00 PM

Texas will ultimately be the state that decides the race this time.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
TheRoguePenguin Since: Jul, 2009
#334889: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:51:16 PM

[up]That's not remotely true. Biden doesn't need Texas to win, so him winning there would only mean Trump losing worse.

minseok42 A Self-inflicted Disaster from A Six-Tatami Room (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
A Self-inflicted Disaster
#334890: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:52:01 PM

What is with Trump and the windows? Not the OS.

"Enshittification truly is how platforms die"-Cory Doctorow
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#334891: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:52:04 PM

I strongly disagree.

Texas is the key state here this time. If the suppression there works and votes, it will work elsewhere and Trump will win.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:52:32 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#334893: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:53:25 PM

If Biden really needed Texas to win, his odds of winning would be way worse than what they are.

Disgusted, but not surprised
TheRoguePenguin Since: Jul, 2009
#334894: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:54:47 PM

[up][up][up]You're comparing apples to oranges. Voter suppression working in a state Biden likely wouldn't have won anyway doesn't mean the same suppression will happen in every other state, nor has it been.

Edited by TheRoguePenguin on Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:54:59 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#334895: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:55:36 PM

To repeat what I said earlier, Texas gives Biden a 35% chance. It has been a republican-dominated state for a very long time and is likely going to remain one this election. Florida would be a better barometer albeit Biden doesn't need that to win either.

That's ultimately the core issue Trump is facing: Biden has multiple viable paths to victory, while Trump has to consistently win a lot of states he won last time by only very thin margins.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#334896: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:55:39 PM

Looking at 538 they gave some states to look at to see if the election will be called the night of or not: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. Texas being the only one of the four currently in Biden's favor right now.

It's interesting because it seems that if any of those are called in Biden's favor on the night of he's almost certainly won the whole thing, but even if he loses all of them it doesn't necessarily mean he's lost (though it certainly wouldn't look good for him if that turns out to be the case).

I find that pretty encouraging.

Edited by LSBK on Oct 22nd 2020 at 12:03:01 PM

Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#334897: Oct 22nd 2020 at 9:57:46 PM

According to 538, Biden doesn't need Texas to win, but Trump does.

Democrats Don't Need To Win Georgia, Iowa, Ohio Or Texas - But They Could

Biden doesn't need to carry these states - he can win a comfortable Electoral College victory without carrying them. Trump does need them, however - but he also needs bluer states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win reelection. Similarly, Democrats can win a Senate majority without carrying any of the four Senate seats up for grabs in these states (none in Ohio but two in Georgia).

But these states are still important. Winning the Senate races there would likely mean that Democrats have 53 or 54 seats overall, giving them room for defections on key votes. A strong performance from Biden in Texas, meanwhile, could help down-ballot Democrats there, as the party could flip several U.S. House seats and the Texas House of Representatives. Symbolically, winning Georgia and particularly Texas would suggest that Democrats have really arrived in the South after years of talk about their potential strength in that region. And winning Iowa and particularly Ohio would suggest that Democrats' decline in the Midwest have been overstated.

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
RedSavant Since: Jan, 2001
#334898: Oct 22nd 2020 at 10:00:13 PM

Same. I know 538 has said Trump can't win without Texas, but that doesn't mean Biden needs to win it.

It's been fun.
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#334899: Oct 22nd 2020 at 10:00:16 PM

Funnily enough, Florida, the one state infamous for being the most infuriating swing state ever, has the largest Biden lead of those, albeit not by much.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 22nd 2020 at 2:01:27 PM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#334900: Oct 22nd 2020 at 10:01:54 PM

Yeah voter suppression working in a (normally) solidly Republican state with a Republican governor does not mean it will work in a swing state with a democrat governor.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran

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