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Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#334326: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:37:46 AM

I can’t speak for others, but I’m not trying to decode the polls, I’m trying to take the data they represent and apply it to other things.

I trust the polls (well polling averages) to be as accurate as they themselves believe they should be, but that doesn’t just mean we’re all done. It’s perfectly in-line with trusting the polls to speculate on what’s causing poll movement, why movement is showing up in some areas but not others and if we will see further movement.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#334327: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:38:38 AM

Well everyone is always looking at national polls... the votes that truly matter are only in a few states and counties because of our fucked up election system.

Those are kinda all over the map, one has a right to be worried.

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#334328: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:39:18 AM

Of note, as we draw closer and closer to election day, the Trump approval rating aggregated across polls at 538 remains stable as ever. He is, as always, in his comfortable 41-44% range.

One of the most historic things about Trump's presidency is the way the whole country made up their minds about him in January of 2018 after he pacified the wealthy business-owners, skeptical about whether he'd support their greed, with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Very few wavered from that spot they landed in. The hard fact of Trump's Presidency has been that there is nothing he could possibly do to convince his detractors to like him, and nothing he could possibly do to convince his supporters to abandon him.

We all knew exactly what we were going to get from Trump, in a way that is more or less unprecedented in the history of the Presidency. Over the last three years following that first year in office that did nearly break his support, Trump has neither disappointed nor impressed. He has successfully lived down to the expectations of everyone who loved or hated him.

What does that mean for this upcoming election? Well, it means that exactly as many people like and dislike him as did during the 2018 Midterm election. In 2016, he was a fresh candidate for whom people could make up their own assumptions for what he would be like in office. By 2018, everyone knew exactly what President Trump would be like, and now in 2020, opinions have not wavered from 2018. Make of that what you will.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Oct 19th 2020 at 11:41:10 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#334329: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:40:07 AM

I'd argue it's Properly Paranoid, as part of Clinton's loss in 2016 (as well as Brexit's passing around the same time, while we're at it) was complacency - people "knew" that such a thing couldn't happen, and so were more comfortable either sitting out of the vote or lodging a protest vote, secure in the knowledge that other voters would override them anyway. And I'd prefer hypervigilance in this case, as it equates to getting Sweet-Potato Hitler out of office.

I will point out that there's no actual evidence for this. Clinton was unpopular amongst the general public, that more then explains the poor turnout. There's no empirical evidence that good polls lead to complacency.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#334330: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:40:10 AM

Man. Just because sometimes it's useful to analyze the data before reaching a conclusion doesn't mean the data is useless.

Like that 538 comment of '+10 is gonna translate to +8', for example, is because they expect things to tighten by election night, since that's generally how things work. But the lead Biden has now matters because it informs the way both parties spend their funding, and what their strategies look like, and a bunch of things like that.

And in this particular case it matters more because early voting is much more of a thing this year, so a bunch of Biden's lead is being 'banked'.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#334331: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:40:30 AM

Well everyone is always looking at national polls... the votes that truly matter are only in a few states and counties because of our fucked up election system.

Those are kinda all over the map, one has a right to be worried.

State polls aren’t all over the map, I mean they are in a literal sense due to states being in various places on a map of the US, but I assume that’s not what you mean.

Some states are strong one way or another based on their state polls, other states are close based on their state polls. I’ve not noticed any wild jumps in state polling and I’m watching it pretty closely.

Edited by Silasw on Oct 19th 2020 at 6:41:43 PM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#334332: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:41:48 AM

Be worried, but do constructive things with your worry. Make sure you vote, or have a plan to vote. If you are able to do so, volunteer with your local Democratic Party chapter or sign up as a poll worker. Talk to people in your life and encourage them to participate. Even if you live in a deep red or deep blue state, your voice still gets counted and can help shift the map in future elections.

Then, once you've done what you can, recognize that it's out of your hands and take a deep breath until we know the final results.

If you are deeply concerned and it doesn't present a serious risk to you, you could even sign up with a local protest group to take action in the event things don't go as we hope.

Sitting at home, balled up in a blanket in fear isn't helping you or anyone else.

Edited by Fighteer on Oct 19th 2020 at 2:43:04 PM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#334333: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:45:04 AM

[up] This.

It is normal to have anxiety. Anxiety about whether or not the rent will get paid is how the rent gets paid. If you live in the U.S. and you feel anxietous about the election's outcome, volunteer with the Democratic Party and do your part to help shape that outcome. Channel your anxiety and get the rent paid, so to speak.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#334334: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:45:43 AM

State polls aren’t all over the map, I mean they are in a literal sense due to states being in various places on a map of the US, but I assume that’s not what you mean.

Some states are strong one way or another based on their state polls, other states are close based on their state polls. I’ve not noticed any wild jumps in state polling and I’m watching it pretty closely.

Indeed, not to mention that while national polling isn't as important as it should be (Electoral College Delenda Est) it's not irrelevant. The higher the numbers the better odds of victory. This means that paying attention to national polling is certainly justified, even if state polling is also relevant.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#334335: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:47:50 AM

Just two weeks from now, huh.

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#334336: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:50:04 AM

It may take longer than the single day for us to get results, which I’m sure is gonna make this thread fun...

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
MrHellboy The Shadow from A world of my own Since: Dec, 2017 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
The Shadow
#334337: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:51:13 AM

Well, I early voted on the first day. Waited in line in the cold and rain for an hour, but it was worth it.

Now I'm just going to wait. And pray

The hardest thing in this world is to live in it.
Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#334338: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:52:18 AM

I do not live in the U.S, so I cannot vote of course.

But I did convince a friend of mine who was not going to vote to do it though.

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#334339: Oct 19th 2020 at 11:53:28 AM

Man. Speaking for myself, as a non-American, I fully intend to everything I can to just unplug from the election for at least the night of. I know myself well enough to say that I'll probably spend the next few days obsessing over minutiae in the uncalled states, but I'm gonna at least attempt to take a step back and spare myself the anxiety.

Edited by Gilphon on Oct 19th 2020 at 2:54:00 PM

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#334340: Oct 19th 2020 at 12:08:34 PM

I just noticed that the 538 Projection now gives Biden a slight (as in .4%) advantage in Maine's 2nd district.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Scarecrow4774 from In Wonderland Since: Mar, 2017 Relationship Status: Complex: I'm real, they are imaginary
#334341: Oct 19th 2020 at 12:09:56 PM

I think we're going to find out the results either on election night or a few days afterward.

“We’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.” - Lewis Carroll
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#334342: Oct 19th 2020 at 12:11:09 PM

It’s even closer in Georgia, at 0.2, they have Ohio so close that they’d have it going to Biden if the election was held today but going to Trump based on poll reversion.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#334343: Oct 19th 2020 at 12:15:32 PM

[up][up]

That hinges largely on how States handle mail-in ballots. I know some don't start tabulating any of them until after the polls officially close, which could potentially lead to some lengthy wait times - which we know Trump will take advantage of to sow discord and distrust in the actual results, sadly.

[down]

Whether or not it's good hinges on the rationale - it could be argued that counting votes beforehand could lead to complacency for the lead and a surge of votes for the losing side, or a surge in votes for those that want to support the clear winner and people deciding not to vote for a hopeless cause. Granted, both scenarios only happen if the tabulations become publicly known - but in this day and age, that's astonishingly easy to have happen.

Edited by ironballs16 on Oct 19th 2020 at 3:50:26 PM

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
Altris from the Vortex Since: Aug, 2019 Relationship Status: Not caught up in your love affair
#334344: Oct 19th 2020 at 12:19:24 PM

Man. Speaking for myself, as a non-American, I fully intend to everything I can to just unplug from the election for at least the night of. I know myself well enough to say that I'll probably spend the next few days obsessing over minutiae in the uncalled states, but I'm gonna at least attempt to take a step back and spare myself the anxiety.

Yeah, the news media doesn't really help in that regard. Every four years around this time, it's nothing but "The polls changed again! How will this affect [candidate 1]'s standing in relation to [candidate 2]'s?" It's really stressful because every single little change is apparently a clear sign of whatever candidate's clear victory. Maybe it's a bit different but I don't want to subject myself to that.

[up] Yeah, that's... that's not good. This election year is sure interesting.

So, let's hang an anchor from the sun... also my Tumblr
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#334345: Oct 19th 2020 at 12:21:21 PM

[up][up][up]Notably, the model is accounting for an expected tightening that Silver and co admit hasn't materialized yet.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
SatoshiBakura (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#334346: Oct 19th 2020 at 12:24:55 PM

I went ahead and voted early. Biden better win, damn it.

Edited by SatoshiBakura on Oct 19th 2020 at 3:25:22 PM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#334347: Oct 19th 2020 at 12:40:57 PM

Considering the current discussion Five Thirty Eight has a very relevant article, 8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign.

Tip 8 is particularly relevant:

     content 

8. Don’t get carried away with early voting data.

Democrats have a huge edge in early voting so far … but as I talked about on my weekly segment for ABC’s “This Week,” I’m not sure I’d read too much into it. The early-voting lead for Democrats is largely in line with what polls predicted, and Republicans are likely to draw the race closer with a huge Election Day turnout. Moreover, our experience in past elections is that people tend to read more into early voting data than is warranted and often cherry-pick data in ways that are favorable to their preferred party or candidate.

Also, the huge partisan split in early in-person voting and mail voting is new — historically, it was something that both parties took advantage of — and that makes it hard to put it into context. Maybe it really will turn out to be a bad sign for Republicans that Democrats are banking so many votes. Or maybe Democrats will underperform polls because mail votes have a higher rate of ballot spoilage. On balance I’d rather have a lot of votes locked in than not, but we’re flying pretty blind here. Besides, most polls try to account for early voting — for instance, by asking voters whether they’ve already voted — so to the extent that Democrats are benefiting from it, it should be reflected in the polls already.

It’s going to be a long 15 days — and perhaps beyond, since we may not know the winner on Nov. 3. Five Thirty Eight will be providing all the content that you might want, from daily podcasts to near-constant updates of our forecast. But you’ll usually know all that you need to if you’re pacing yourself and only checking in with news coverage of the campaign once a day or a couple of times a week. Stay safe and stay sane, and we’ll enjoy watching the rest of the election with you.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#334348: Oct 19th 2020 at 12:47:42 PM

I'd argue it's Properly Paranoid, as part of Clinton's loss in 2016 (as well as Brexit's passing around the same time, while we're at it) was complacency - people "knew" that such a thing couldn't happen, and so were more comfortable either sitting out of the vote or lodging a protest vote, secure in the knowledge that other voters would override them anyway.

In the case of Brexit, protest votes didn't occur because of complacency, it was because of lack of knowledge.

The UK system is not designed to cope with referenda, and an awful lot of people didn't understand how they work. People 'know' that, when they vote, their votes 'don't matter'. That's because of the FPTP system, which creates a number of stable constituencies. During the EU Referendum, the media did a lot of talking about how constituencies would vote (and how they did vote after the referendum). So, people just voted the way they did in a normal election. They made assumptions based on how frequently their constituency changes party hands as to whether their vote counts.

Now, this catches people out in normal elections where they assume they sit in a safe seat for a certain party because it hasn't changed party hands for years, even decades, not realising that the difference in amount of votes actually makes it a marginal or semi-marginal seat. So, people made protest votes during the referendum based on the fact that they 'knew' individual votes don't count in FPTP and therefore wouldn't count in the referendum.

They didn't understand until after the referendum that referenda are not elections, they're not FPTP and they're not counted by constituency. Every single vote is counted. The amount of people who didn't understand this until it was too late was quite shocking, and has been studied ever since.

Edited by Wyldchyld on Oct 19th 2020 at 8:52:14 PM

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#334349: Oct 19th 2020 at 1:22:56 PM

Trump outright said that the only reason he hasn't fired Fauci is because the blowback wouldn't be worth it.

I'm legitimately surprised that he has that much self control to do not fire him anyway.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#334350: Oct 19th 2020 at 1:24:05 PM

Brexit was also additionally complicated by the huge amount of disinformation out there, the ability to project whatever you want onto Brexit was insane, helped by the fact that a lot of election laws didn’t apply to the referendum due to its non-binding nature.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran

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