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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Trump: Biden will "listen to the scientists" if elected
Speaking of which... shouldn't his steroid "high" have worn off by now? Honest question. I don't know how long the effects last.
Edited by speedyboris on Oct 19th 2020 at 9:53:06 AM
Turkeys voting for Christmas comes to mind when you see any level of increased Black support for Trump.
Like, Republicans in general, but especially this one.
I saw ads last week claiming Blacks support Trump because he "freed the prisoners" — referring to high incarceration rates for people of color. I am not aware of any such program initiated by anyone in the administration or in this Congress, so what in the world is it talking about? I mean, other than blatantly lying, but there's usually at least some story or mangled fact behind these claims.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Prisoners of political correctness, perhaps? That's the kind of stupid that would sound perfectly in character for his base.
For anyone curious this isn’t a fact, it’s a lie. Polls underestimated Republicans in the Midwest in 2016, in 2012 Obama did better than his polls in the same states. He beat the RCP average in Michigan by 5 points, Pennsylvania by 1.6 points, Iowa by 3.4 points and Wisconsin by 2.7 points.
Polling errors happen, but they’re far from consistent year after year, in large part because pollsters look at their errors and act upon them, often over-correcting.
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There was a prisoner reform bill he signed, it might be a reference to that.
Edited by Silasw on Oct 19th 2020 at 5:37:13 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranAs far as polling goes, it’s possible the 538 average could be underestimating Biden by a percentage point or two. There’s a deep blue concentration of a lot of polls above the average line, and that’s been the case since late August. Then there’s a much less concentrated smattering of polls below the average line.
The discrepancy between state polls and national polls does concern me, though. Biden’s gain of about 2.5 percentage points during October should also be visible in a notable number of state polling averages if it’s real, but for the most part the state polls aren’t showing it.
Polls are never intended or presented to be a statement of absolute truth. Polls at best allow us a prediction of possibility.
They are meant to be inductive, not deductive.
Edited by Aszur on Oct 19th 2020 at 12:32:36 PM
It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothesObviously, the polls are wrong if they show Biden winning but right if they show Trump winning.
Edit - To give context, although as far as I can tell, none of the tropers contesting polls want Trump to win, they all are operating on the assumption (based on 2016 trauma) that if there is an error in the polls, it has to be an error in Trump's favor.
Edited by Hodor2 on Oct 19th 2020 at 1:36:10 PM
None of us think there's any point in just trusting what the polls say.
No. I don't distrust the polls. Quite the opposite, the majority of the arguments in favor of distrusting them I've seen have been various shades of unconvincing.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 19th 2020 at 11:35:03 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangThe issue here isn't either the tendency to ignore polls in favor of gut feelings or the tendency to slavishly adhere to them as Truth. It's the tendency to, as said above, read every gain for Biden as illusory and every gain for Trump as evidence that he's going to win.
It's just a slight variation of doomsaying.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"I'd argue it's Properly Paranoid, as part of Clinton's loss in 2016 (as well as Brexit's passing around the same time, while we're at it) was complacency - people "knew" that such a thing couldn't happen, and so were more comfortable either sitting out of the vote or lodging a protest vote, secure in the knowledge that other voters would override them anyway. And I'd prefer hypervigilance in this case, as it equates to getting Sweet-Potato Hitler out of office.
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"

Because they tend to start going by different names, and therefore need to change their signatures, so the signature on older documents won't match.
Is what I think the reason is.