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Nov 2023 Mod notice:


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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

ShinyCottonCandy Everyone's friend Malamar from Lumiose City (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Everyone's friend Malamar
#334276: Oct 19th 2020 at 8:40:15 AM

Only name that I saw and thought, "that's unfortunate" was Kelsey Grammer.

Gene Simmons was also notable to me, but only because of Pokémon's Shout-Out to KISS which I can now only react with, "well, that's awkard now..."

My musician page
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#334277: Oct 19th 2020 at 8:41:18 AM

I don't really have a signature to speak of, I just write out my name.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Scarecrow4774 from In Wonderland Since: Mar, 2017 Relationship Status: Complex: I'm real, they are imaginary
#334278: Oct 19th 2020 at 8:41:19 AM

People are amazed that I take my time when signing something. I like my signature to be somewhat legible.

“We’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.” - Lewis Carroll
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#334279: Oct 19th 2020 at 8:43:11 AM

I don't sweat it much, but my signature does have a specific common trait where I take a cross to a t in my first name and extend the line to start writing my last name.

ScubaWolf from South Carolina Since: Feb, 2020
#334280: Oct 19th 2020 at 8:43:12 AM

The most prominent Trump supporting celeb however is James Woods.

He even got suspended from Twitter for it for a few weeks due to being such an asshole.

James Woods was named as one guilty of sexual harassment, so this does not surprise me.

"In a move surprising absolutely no one"
Lazlo74 from A tropical hell-hole Since: May, 2018
#334281: Oct 19th 2020 at 8:44:04 AM

Someone in 270.com raised some serious concerns over the accuracy of polls, especially in the Midwest. Here is his argument:

Polls always underestimate the Republicans in Iowa. Polls underestimate red support in the Midwest, in general. Not an opinion, that's a fact Iowa represents only 6 electoral votes, so the foolish faith of the Biden campaign in the polls won't hurt us all much there. However, Wasting precious campaign resources in IA that should be used in other states: Michigan and PA polls could be the most inaccurate of all polls

I don't trust polls because the surveys are taken by what has become a luxury item to the Midwest crowds: landlines. Rural voters, Q-anon voters, 18-21 Gen Z white male voters voting for the first time (A.K.A whites with no college education who inherit their politics from their parents) in small towns, unemployed crowds that can't afford the luxury to work at home, ultra busy small business owners that don't have 1 hour or so to answer endless questions from a stranger.

Colleges are closed to in person learning, which mean that many traditional places where democrats used to register "woke" young voters have been unavailable. The Lincoln Project retweeted an article about how Republicans have done more knock on door registration than democrats.

I don't eat my food with a small percentage% of excrement, I wouldn't eat polls with a small percentage of landline calls. But for all of you poll lovers look at the methodology, not the totals. Notice how Trump still carries around 40 of female support in all the key battleground states. And that he still carries around 50% of trust on the economy. Notice also Trafalgar polls: They have PA at +2% Biden (a tie), and FL at +2% Trump. That's because they are the only polls that seem to bother to show a sample of every disctrict which might mean they survey more rural voters than other pollsters. When we include the small town voters in the swing states things might change for Trump, right? In a tight Nov 3rd result all misrepresented groups in polls might come to remind us that polls can only predict the popular vote, but it's the electoral vote which counts. People DON'T PAY ATTENTION TO THE POLLS they're more out of touch with reality than in 2016, mostly because the Pandemic changed a lot of things.

What are your thoughts about this? Is this guy's argument about polling flaws sound enough that no one should pay too much attention on Biden's advantage right now?

Edited by Lazlo74 on Oct 19th 2020 at 8:56:31 AM

Scaled seeker
PurpleEyedGuma Since: Apr, 2020
#334282: Oct 19th 2020 at 8:46:57 AM

Gene Simmons surprised me too, as did Mike Tyson and Dennis Quaid. Roseanne, I kind of expected.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#334283: Oct 19th 2020 at 8:54:03 AM

Are you suggesting that sexual offenders lean Republican? That sounds unlikely to me.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#334284: Oct 19th 2020 at 8:54:13 AM

Their claim that polls are taken entirely through landlines is baseless, they are not. Ergo, that is not a valid reason to dismiss the polls. And this isn't a hard thing to check, a single google search found that article. That makes me doubt that the rest of their argument is worth anything if they'd make such a trivially debunkable claim.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 19th 2020 at 8:55:27 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
ScubaWolf from South Carolina Since: Feb, 2020
#334285: Oct 19th 2020 at 8:56:51 AM

[up][up] I've noticed a pattern more than anything.

"In a move surprising absolutely no one"
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#334286: Oct 19th 2020 at 8:58:03 AM

[up][up][up][up][up]My thoughts is why should I trust some random person on the internet more than the actual polling experts.

ShinyCottonCandy Everyone's friend Malamar from Lumiose City (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Everyone's friend Malamar
#334287: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:03:10 AM

Have a headline that could have come straight from The Onion:

Trump: Biden will "listen to the scientists" if elected

My musician page
Lazlo74 from A tropical hell-hole Since: May, 2018
#334288: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:09:40 AM

Apparently, they're really concerned about the precision of landline calls as a polling methodology. They urge people not to trust any poll with even a small percentage of landline calls, citing that landline phones are a luxury in the more rural areas of inner America and thus blurs the picture of polls. Not sure why they're so obsessed with discrediting this methodology.

Scaled seeker
Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#334289: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:10:17 AM

Gene Simmons supported Trump in 2016, so that's not a surprise.

Regarding the quoted person above on the subject of polls. He appears to be cherry-picking evidence to support a belief rather than forming a belief based on the evidence. For example, his use of the Trafalgar polls. In 2016, the Trafalgar polls predicted Trump winning when other polls 'didn't'. The problem with the statement I've just made is that it not only ignores margins for error in other polls (and how probability works in general), it also conflates 'right prediction' with 'accurate polling'. The Trafalgar polls were only right about Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania because they massively overinflated Trump's performance; this overinflation led them to make the wrong call on certain other states (such as Nevada). So, they were not accurate polls or, at least, no more accurate than other polls. This is important because the Trafalgar polls do have a history of overinflating Trump's performance instead of reporting it accurately. So, they have methodology pros and cons, just like all the other polling companies.

Anyway, the biggest sign that you're not dealing with a good faith argument is someone telling you to dismiss polls... by paying attention to the one poll they approve of.

The best thing you can do is ignore random people on the Internet and instead listen to actual polling experts, who investigate and discuss polling methodologies, their pros and cons, and always remind people to look at aggregate trends over time not individual polls at a single point in time.

Edited by Wyldchyld on Oct 19th 2020 at 5:17:41 PM

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
ShinyCottonCandy Everyone's friend Malamar from Lumiose City (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#334291: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:14:45 AM

Let me guess...

Gotta KISS them all?

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
PurpleEyedGuma Since: Apr, 2020
#334292: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:15:06 AM

@Redmess Yes, I’m saying that.

Lazlo74 from A tropical hell-hole Since: May, 2018
#334293: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:15:17 AM

Keep in mind that this person doesn't really favor either candidate. They're just saying that there's so much uncertainty leading to November that they believe a tie is pretty likely, but as for why they think Trafalgar's numbers is even an argument is anyone's guess.

Edited by Lazlo74 on Oct 19th 2020 at 9:15:37 AM

Scaled seeker
PurpleEyedGuma Since: Apr, 2020
#334294: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:15:31 AM

(Also, the G-Zigzagoon line wasn’t specifically based on KISS, but glam rock in general . . . .)

Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#334295: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:19:02 AM

[up][up]His language does, however, indicate a strong ideological bias. That is not a neutrally-worded post. Polling experts not only know the subject but tend to be neutral reporters on how polling actually works. It's their job to be.

I wouldn't trust the post you cited precisely because of the ideological language used. It comes across as agenda-driven. I know nothing about the person who made that post, but it does not use trustworthy language. Poll watchers, such as 538, are already factoring in the Trafalgar polls to their analyses so this poster acting like polling experts haven't heard of the Trafalgar polling reminds me a lot of climate deniers acting like climate scientists have never heard of the planet having natural climate cycles that predate human activity.

Edited by Wyldchyld on Oct 19th 2020 at 5:24:23 PM

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
RainingMetal (Handed A Sword) Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#334296: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:24:30 AM

Crazy that I know KISS and Gene Simmons from Family Guy.

ASAB: All Sponsors Are Bad.
Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#334297: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:25:57 AM

I have no idea how old everyone around here is but some of these posts are making me feel very old. [lol]

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
PointMaid Since: Jun, 2014
#334298: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:26:18 AM

Yeah, and I know 538 gives the pollsters quality rankings to factor that into their predictions. So they're not just taking all polls as the same quality to factor into their aggregation.

Scarecrow4774 from In Wonderland Since: Mar, 2017 Relationship Status: Complex: I'm real, they are imaginary
#334299: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:37:28 AM

[up][up][up] I know them from Scooby-Doo.

“We’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.” - Lewis Carroll
MichaelKatsuro Since: Apr, 2011
#334300: Oct 19th 2020 at 9:45:53 AM

Wait, how come transgender people would have problems with signature matching?


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