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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
On a lark, I checked 538's latest odds of a Biden win an hour ago (87%). I then went to Pro Football Reference and put in a game situation that matched those odds to get an idea as to what would be an equivalent situation in a football game.
Right now, I've found: Up by 7 points, 3:00 left in the game, opponent has 1st and 10 starting at their own 25. So in good position, but still need to finish.
The damned queen and the relentless knight.I am proud to say that today I returned my ballot. I voted straight Democrat for every position.
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This. I see a lot of people constantly talk about a Biden victory like it's a sure thing now and it worries me a little. Biden's standing is much stronger than Clinton's, no doubt, but 538 still gives Trump a bit more than 1 in 10 chance. Yeah, that's very unlikely but that's far from impossible. Also in order to reverse the damage the GOP has done we still need every vote we can get for democratic senators, which is much less certain.
So please please please vote everyone.
Since the WWII, Reagan scored the largest Electoral College margin in 1984, beating Mondale 525-13 and a popular vote of 58.8% to 40.6%, while LBJ took the largest popular vote win in 1964 when he vaporized Barry "I will start a nuclear war" Goldwater with 61.1% of the popular vote to Goldwater's 38.5% and an Electoral College win of 486-52.
I've lagged due to moving at the end of September and needing to update my registration.
I got notification that my address was updated with the dmv so I'll be seeing to early voting this week if possible. On the flip side, I'm in Idaho, which is probably a comfortable Trump pickup so I'd be lying if I said I was prioritizing it.
That said, no good reason not to vote. Might impact down ticket races of nothing else.
Edited by sgamer82 on Oct 17th 2020 at 3:35:40 AM
I got the email notice that my ballot was received and logged. So I'm done.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"It took me a while to track it down again, but there was a report released earlier this year by the Native American Rights Fund
(reposting here) that goes more in depth into the difficulties Native Americans face in voting, and how vote-by-mail, especially, exacerbates these challenges. It has also been discussed in articles in Vox
and AP News
The problems extend well beyond the lack of permanent street addresses. A summary of the points made in the report:
- Homes on reservations often do not have street addresses, which affects people's ability to fill out required forms.
- Multiple households often use the same P.O. Box to receive mail, some of which are located at post offices very far away from their homes and cannot be checked very often.
- Internet access is poor, with a third of Native Americans living on tribal lands lacking broadband, limiting their ability to register online.
- Few, if any, centers for receiving voter IDs, polling centers, or drop-off boxes are located near Native reservations - some people have to travel as far as 100 miles round-trip on terrible roads to be able to vote.
- Tribal IDs are often not accepted as a valid form of identification.
- Not all Native Americans speak English, and not all Native languages are written. This means in-person assistance is needed, something that is difficult for mail-in ballots.
It's been pointed out that an increase in vote-by-mail without sufficient support given to these communities can actually lead to disenfranchisement, and many Native Americans, like older African Americans in the South, are somewhat wary of mail voting due to historical disenfranchisement and vote suppression tactics.
Edited by nova92 on Oct 17th 2020 at 3:52:54 AM
My plan to vote at the library a few days ago got scuttled because I forgot the library is closed on Monday, but there's other places to vote so I'll be heading there next week.
@Disinformation costing us the election: That is indeed a problem, and one of the reasons Biden was struggling with Latino voters in Florida was because their social media feeds were being flooded with Biden conspiracies. Last I checked he's doing better now, but it highlights the need to take the fight online among ordinary people as well. They're going to lie, so flood your feeds with truth.
I do agree that the right wing monopoly on the UK's traditional media outlets makes for a different landscape than the US. We just had a prime example of the New York Post pushing what they thought would be a damning anti-Biden story, Fox News running with it, and nobody else touching it with a ten foot poll except to say they thought it was suspicious. The fact that Twitter and Facebook clamped down on it was more a story than the story itself and then then town halls killed almost all the interest in the Post's smear campaign.
How many polling stations did Louisville have?
1.
It is also the largest population of black Americans in the state.
Um Charles what are you talking about
?
I think he was talking about the Primary, where if I recall correctly Louisville did only have one polling place. As did every county in Kentucky, but obviously that causes more problems for the larger (ie more Democratic) counties.
It was a place that could accomidate a lot of people, but still it's pretty much impossible for any single location to process over half a million eligible voters in a single day.
Edited by Falrinn on Oct 17th 2020 at 4:41:49 AM
Also voting on Election day; mostly because I have no way to vote without my family, partially because voting on election day makes it easier for me to lie about who I'm voting for (My parents are diehard Trumpeteers, I have to tell them I'm voting for Jorginson (the Libertarian) and even then they're pissed off about it).
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-primaries-kentucky-1.5623343
Here ya go.
Yes, I'm referring to the Primary.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.I voted on Wednesday straight Democrat. The polling place I normally go to was fairly busy. Not a line, but enough people were in where there was a rotation on the voting machines.
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."So we know Rudy Giuliani is a Russian spy/asset.
But wow, is he a TERRIBLE one.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.

Biden campaign warns people not to get complacent.
"While we see robust leads at the national level, in the states we're counting on to carry us to victory like Arizona and North Carolina we’re only up by three points. We also know that even the best polling can be wrong, and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical states we are functionally tied — and that we need to campaign like we’re trailing."