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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
This is rambling and personal and it might be better to skip everything after the first paragraph, but:
I can't help but look at every single mention here, and... basically everywhere else online, about poll numbers looking solidly positive for Biden and Republicans trying to distance themselves from Trump, and think it's blatantly whistling past the graveyard. This exact same thing played out in 2016 after the Access Hollywood tape - which was even almost four years ago to the day as of right now! - and it all wound up being less than moot. Even leaving out the hard-to-shake feeling that, ultimately, nothing ever actually hurts Trump period, polls are not some kind of all-seeing oracular magic. They have margins of error for a reason. Polling doesn't even have to be "bad" in the way that the 2016 polls (IMO somewhat unfairly) are remembered as being, to be incorrect about the outcome of a vote.
And so I've spent hours and hours reading every bit of election analysis I can find trying to find some way to make myself feel secure, even though I already know it won't work - but it's not like I can do anything to distract myself either, because it's very hard experiencing pretty much any form of entertainment that has a positive resolution when the whole idea of things getting better seems like a lie. I've had anxiety issues my whole adult life, but right now it's like I'm in a permanent panic attack.
I don't post in this forum, and I don't know what good this will do, but I have to let this out. I'm not trying to engage in doomsaying (again, from my perspective right now, expressing any form of optimism whatosever feels like being delusional, and I know that's a psychological issue), I just feel like bottling this up is killing me before the election even arrives, and it seems like it's at least worth trying to see if venting frees me from wasting all of the remaining time where Trump losing is still a possibile outcome obsessively following news that is inherently incapable of doing anything to help me feel better.
BTW, before people bring it up: I have absolutely thought about actual therapy and if there wasn't a pandemic I'd be seeking it out right now, but... well, there is. (I've also thought about the troper anxiety thread over in Yack Fest, but from what I see, if there was ever a point it involved more than just randomly shouting fears out into the void, that's loooong gone, not that I'm sure it'd be helpful in the best of cases). At least this thread seems to involve conversation, and like I said at the beginning: all personal mental issues aside I do honestly feel like a reality check is worth having when there have been multiple "what will losing this election do to the Republican Party" posts three weeks before the election.
I presume the observation that Hillary's lead over Trump in polling was nowhere near as big as Biden's at this point in time (Biden nearly clocking at double digits while Hillary's lead was around to 5-8% iirc) wouldn't help in either.
"All you Fascists bound to lose."![]()
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The difference between now and 2016 is actually quite complicated, but importantly it relies upon a simple fact. The polls were not wrong in 2016; they were a margin of error out (and you even mentioned margins of error). There were systematic issues with the polling that lead to their underestimation of demographic trends (namely the relevance of education levels on predicting white voter preferences), which have since been factored in, and there was a deficit of reputable state-level polling across the midwest—which is also addressed. The thing is, pollsters aren't idiots; like any professionals they look at where they went wrong before and try to address it.
If the polls are off now by as much as they were in 2016, then Biden still has a 7-8% lead nationally and 3-5% in crucial states. But the polls could also be off in completely the opposite direction, and he could end up overperforming.
538 has a model for a reason, and in 2016 Trump went into election day with a 33% chance. He's currently down to 13%, which is still possible, but shows exactly how much the conditions are different.
It's unduly pessimistic to dismiss every possible indication, from early voting turnout to regular state-level polling, as wrong.
Edited by RainehDaze on Oct 13th 2020 at 5:20:10 PM
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In addition, Biden's lead is far more stable than Clinton's.
Or it was until he pulled ahead in recent weeks.
There are also fewer undecided voters (who broke heavily for Trump last time), Biden is attacking/leading in more states and has more win conditions than "hold Midwest", Biden has significantly higher personal favorables among voters than Clinton, Biden and the Democrats are raising massive amounts of cash, and Trump now has a record to attack beyond being a racist asshole on Twitter.
And, as Nate Silver and co have stressed before, Trump's chances will drop (and are dropping) as Election Day approaches simply because his time to turn the polling around is running out.
Yup. You'd think a prolific conman would know better than to hire fraudsters.
Edited by Rationalinsanity on Oct 13th 2020 at 1:22:48 PM
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.It's quite the opposite. Most con-artists never think they will get conned. They've got an inflated opinion of themselves that keeps them from thinking they'd ever be gullible enough to fall for a scam unlike those other people.
It's also why it's surprisingly easy to con rich and successful people. Wealth and privilege and success in business or academia leads one to think they're infallible and couldn't possibly fall for a Ponzi scheme or something. Just look at everyone who fell for Bernie Madoff's bullshit.
You could also point to Theranos (the example of medical tech fraud), which had on its board people like Henry Kissinger, Rupert Murdoch, James Mattis, and, um, Joe Biden. Holmes also conned people like the Clintons and the Obamas into thinking she was an actual genius and not a fraudster.
Edited by M84 on Oct 14th 2020 at 12:30:29 AM
Disgusted, but not surprisedAlso, Harris County set a new first day early voting record.
As of about 7:30 p.m., the county was reporting roughly 128,000 votes with some people still casting ballots.
The polls were scheduled to close at 7 p.m., but people who were in line at that time still can vote.
The previous record for the first day of early voting was roughly 68,000 in 2016, which the county surpassed around 1:40 p.m. Tuesday.
Harris County Clerk Chris Hollins said the county also broke the record for most early votes on any day, which was set on the last day of the 2016 period.
I think one of the reasons that some people are still pessimistic about Biden winning ia due to the fact that the running theme of 2020 seems to be that things could always get worse. They're afraid that it'll be foolish to feel hope for something again as some new calamity will arrive to dash those hopes. For some, its better to live in dull unfeeling misery than to experience the sharp, sudden pain of loss.
Elizabeth Holmes is noticeably a Berserk Button for black, female, and POC inventors especially. The fact she was able to walk in and get massive funding for her nonsense device is a (bad) joke in Silicon Valley.
Edited by CharlesPhipps on Oct 13th 2020 at 9:33:42 AM
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Notably, the actual VC firms whose job is to vet these things to see if they're worth investing in all decided not to invest in Theranos.
It's a good thing Holmes didn't get started in the age of crowdfunding. Gofundme and Indiegogo would have been easy pickings for her.
Edited by M84 on Oct 14th 2020 at 12:36:23 AM
Disgusted, but not surprisedI see they're continuing to try and have the law applied down to the letter in defiance of all common sense.
"If you do the voting after proving your identity at a ballot site but happen to be not literally in this one spot on the floor, then there might be fraud!" is patently obviously nonsense. They could at least not insult our intelligence by acting like that's the case.
Voting fraud is already a nonsensical and stupid concern. You don't steal elections by stuffing ballot boxes, you steal elections by restructuring the political map.
"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."Meanwhile, there's these two people on the discussion page of almost every 270towin.com news feed who keep spreading Trumpian bullshit about how Biden is losing and Trump is winning because he had more people present in rallies at Florida, muh "silent majority", libs are commie devils, yadda yadda yadda.
I know you're supposed to show support for your side, but are these people trolling or something? Most of their arguments boil down to ad hominem and strawmen attacks against the left instead of presenting an argument on why you should not underestimate Trump.
Scaled seeker

Pun intended, or...?